Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 10 results

Baylor and Oklahoma State both secured bowl eligibility, while Arizona State and UCF got one win closer to getting into bowl games during Week 10, leading to some shakeups in bowl projections.

However, the biggest difference between this week and last week is how BYU is viewed in the playoff projections released by ESPN, CBS Sports and USA TODAY Sports. Before their loss to Utah, they were still a unanimous playoff contender. Now, views are split on whether the once-undefeated Cougars will make it into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Utes are considered the second-best team in college football, with both ESPN analysts predicting they will make the National Championship game against Georgia. USA TODAY Sports has them making it to the semifinals, also facing the Bulldogs.

Here are their updated bowl projections. Among the Big 12 teams, Colorado, TCU, Iowa State and Kansas remain the only teams no outlet projects to make a bowl game.

Colorado Buffaloes

USA TODAY Sports projection: No projection

CBS Sports projection: No projection

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: No projection

With only three wins and three more games left, Colorado needs to win out to make a bowl game. They face Houston this Friday, followed by Cincinnati and UCF, both of which have five wins. ESPN analytics only gives the Buffaloes a 17% chance of defeating the Cougars, who have defeated every non-ranked Big 12 team they have faced this season. It is no surprise Colorado is not projected to make a bowl game. At this point, it would be more surprising if they did make it into a bowl game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

CBS Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC

Bonagura projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. UCLA

Schlabach projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Miami

There seems to be consensus that the Big 12 will have at least one at-large team make the playoffs, but whether it will be Texas Tech or BYU remains the biggest question. With a 5-1 conference record and an 8-1 overall record, the Red Raiders are in the driver's seat to play in the final Big 12 Championship game against Utah. Assuming they win out, how they play in that game could be the difference in making the playoffs or playing in the Alamo Bowl. Texas Tech has played in the Alamo Bowl three times, winning just once in 2010.

UCF Knights

USA TODAY Sports projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Tulsa

CBS Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington

Bonagura projection: Liberty Bowl vs. South Carolina

Schlabach projection: No projection

After a miraculous touchdown on the last play of the game against Kansas, the Knights are now one win away from becoming bowl-eligible. Their final three games are against Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado. Odds are they will win one of these games. Seeing UCF's offense against South Carolina's defense would be a very interesting matchup. Tulsa would also be an interesting matchup. They defeated Oklahoma State in the season opener and put up just 60 points against Tulane.

Baylor Bears

USA TODAY Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Penn State

CBS Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn

Bonagura projection: Texas Bowl vs. Missouri

Schlabach projection: Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma

After their 42-31 win against Iowa State, the Baylor Bears are officially bowl-eligible after just missing out on a bowl game last season. A matchup in the Cactus Bowl or Texas Bowl would be interesting. But personally, I think it would be fun to see Baylor get revenge against Auburn for their Week 1 loss by about an inch.

Arizona State Sun Devils

USA TODAY Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State

CBS Sports projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

Bonagura projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Fresno State

Schlabach projection: Poinsettia Bowl vs. San Diego State

With their 20-10 win over Colorado, the Sun Devils are one win away from going to a bowl game for the third year in a row. It will not be easy with their remaining schedule, which includes games against UCF, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. According to ESPN analytics, their greatest chance of winning is against UCF, with a 32.4 percent chance of victory. If they do win another game, the Poinsettia Bowl seems like the most likely outcome.

Houston Cougars

USA TODAY Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Louisville

CBS Sports projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU

Bonagura projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

Schlabach projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU

With two conference losses, Houston will not be making it to the Big 12 Championship game unless Texas Tech loses another game. Since that was the most likely path to the playoffs, the Cougars will be in one of college football's top non-playoff bowl games. I always love the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and seeing Houston play Louisville or SMU would be entertaining.

BYU Cougars

USA TODAY Sports projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

CBS Sports projection: No. 11 seed in the CFP vs. Alabama

Bonagura projection: No. 10 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame

Schlabach projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon

Like Texas Tech, BYU has two options at this point: the Alamo Bowl or the playoffs. They have lost two of their last three games since taking down Notre Dame in a controversial game. Getting a chance to defeat the Irish fair and square in the playoffs would be highly entertaining. If I were a Cougars fan, I would not want to see them go against Alabama, especially since this game would be in Tuscaloosa. Getting a chance to play in the Alamo Bowl would be a nice consolation if they do not make the playoffs as an at-large team.

Kansas State Wildcats

USA TODAY Sports projection: Independence Bowl vs. Liberty

CBS Sports projection: No projection

Bonagura projection: No projection

Schlabach projection: No projection

USA TODAY Sports is the only outlet still hoping Kansas State can manage two more wins and become bowl-eligible. However, with their current quarterback situation, it seems highly unlikely they will make it into a bowl game. If they cannot manage to win two of their final three games, which are against TCU, Arizona and Iowa State, it will be the first time since 2020 they are not eligible for a bowl game.

Utah Utes

USA TODAY Sports projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Indiana (Cotton Bowl)

CBS Sports projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP (Rose Bowl)

Bonagura projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Notre Dame

Schlabach projection: No. 2 seed in the CFP vs. Tennessee

Undefeated Utah is clearly the favorite in the Big 12. They are the unanimous No. 2 seed in the playoffs. While CBS Sports does not list whether they project Utah to win or lose, every other outlet has the Utes advancing to the next round of the playoffs. USA TODAY Sports has them losing to Alabama in the semifinals. However, ESPN has a little more confidence in Utah, with both analysts projecting they will face Georgia in the National Championship.

Arizona Wildcats

USA TODAY Sports projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Florida

CBS Sports projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. South Carolina

Bonagura projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech

Schlabach projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri

At 7-2, Arizona has already clinched a bowl game. At this point, they are simply looking to boost their resume with a win against Utah, since they would still need Texas Tech to lose to get into the Big 12 Championship and potentially make the playoffs. The Las Vegas Bowl appears to be the consensus. The Wildcats have played in that bowl game only once, beating BYU in 2008.

Cincinnati Bearcats

USA TODAY Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Texas-San Antonio

CBS Sports projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Bonagura projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Michigan

Schlabach projection: Independence Bowl vs. Oregon State

With one more win, Cincinnati will be bowl-eligible. In all likelihood, that will happen in their next two games against Iowa State and Colorado, since they play BYU in the regular-season finale. They have never played in the Armed Forces Bowl, Cactus Bowl or the Independence Bowl. They also played Michigan only once and lost, and they have not faced Oregon State since 2009. The Bearcats have also never faced Texas San Antonio. So, any of these matchups would be historic.

West Virginia Mountaineers

USA TODAY Sports projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri

CBS Sports projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army

Bonagura projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington

Schlabach projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Nebraska

At 5-4, West Virginia is another Big 12 team that needs one more win to become bowl-eligible. They face Kansas on Saturday and have a 53.8 percent chance of winning. Of these teams, Missouri allows the most rushing yards per game, so it would be interesting to see how they would perform against the Mountaineers' run game, which averages the sixth-most rushing yards of any team in the FBS.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

USA TODAY Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Auburn

CBS Sports projection: Texas Bowl vs. Missouri

Bonagura projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Wake Forest

Schlabach projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn

For the first time since 2023, Oklahoma State is going to a bowl game, making Eric Morris the first head coach for the Cowboys to lead them to a bowl game in his first season since Pat Jones in 1984. None of these teams have amazing pass defenses, so it should be entertaining to see how many touchdowns Drew Mestemaker throws if he plays in the bowl game.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections, CFP picture after Week 10 results