By The Numbers: Iowa vs. Northwestern

Last Saturday was pretty damn fun, especially as a follow up to the dud that resulted in Floyd taking a year long vacation up north. Iowa looked really good, and they made Wisconsin look really bad. It’s pretty impressive to make a team that piss-pounded USC look weak and ineffective. I’m not personally putting a lot of stock into USC’s win over a Julian Sayin-less OSU, but beating any B18 team other than Rutgers or Maryland by 3 scores is not an easy task, and Wisconsin looked good two Saturdays ago. They did not look good in Iowa City, and thank Herkey for that.

We may not have Floyd, but we’ve got the CyHawk, the Bull, and the Heroes trophy still resides in Iowa City. There’s no trophy on the line this week (though I feel like there should be, given our contentious history with the Wildcats – and their preternatural ability to spoil our seasons) but that doesn’t mean this game isn’t the most important game of the season (if only because every week is the most important game of the season while we’re still sitting at 2 losses).

Let’s see what the numbers have to say about Saturdays trip to the all-new Ryan Field in Evanston

The Teams

• Iowa: 6-2 overall, 3-2 conference (No. 21 AP / No. 20 Coaches / No. 19 CFP)
• Northwestern: 6-2 overall, 3-2 conference (receiving votes AP / No. 23 Coaches; not in the CFP top 25)

Series History

• All-time record: Iowa leads 55-28-3 since 1897 — Saturday is the 87th all-time meeting
• Most recent meeting: Iowa won 40-14 on Oct. 26, 2024, at Kinnick Stadium.
• Current streak: Iowa has won 4 straight (2021-24) and 5 of the last 6; Northwestern’s last win was 21-20 in Iowa City in 2020.
• Of Note

• • Iowa’s first trip to Evanston since a 17-12 win in 2021 and its first look at the new Ryan Field, which opened Oct. 2.
  • At 35,000 seats it is the Big Ten’s smallest stadium; Northwestern is 3-0 there. Iowa won its last two games at the old Ryan Field, 20-0 in 2019 and 17-12 in 2021.
  • Six of the last nine meetings decided by a touchdown or less.
  • Iowa has won 23 of its last 28 November games dating to 2019.
  • Kickoff is 6:30 p.m. CT on FOX.

Coaching Staff

• Iowa: Kirk Ferentz (28th season; 215-130 at Iowa; 13-11 vs. Northwestern as Iowa’s head coach) / Tim Lester, OC (3rd season) / Phil Parker, DC (15th season) / Chris Polizzi, ST Coordinator (1st season)
• Northwestern: David Braun, HC (4th season; 25-21 at Northwestern; 0-2 vs. Iowa — 7-10 at Wrigley in 2023, 14-40 in 2024) / Chip Kelly, OC (1st season; former Oregon and UCLA head coach) / Tim McGarigle, DC (3rd season) / Paul Creighton, ST Coordinator.

Offense

Northwestern is averaging ~55 more yards and five more points per game, with a better run game (24th nationally vs. Iowa’s 48th) and a better passing game (58th vs. 91st). Chip Kelly’s offense is 24th in third-down conversions (46.5%), and Northwestern is +10 in turnover margin (T-5th) to Iowa’s +1 (60th). Aiden Chiles gave us fits in East Lansing two years ago and is a much better player than he was in 2024. Iowa’s LBs will be busy trying to contain him while the secondary will have to keep his weapons covered, especially when he breaks the pocket. It should be noted, however, that the Wildcat offense has only faced one other defense that is even in the same class as Iowa (that being Indiana), and while they pushed the Hoosiers to the edge, they didn’t come out on top.

Iowa’s advantage here is in pass pro: seven sacks allowed in eight games (10th in FBS), against a Northwestern defense with just 13 sacks (T-101st) — though Iowa will likely be without starting center Cael Winter (see Injury Report). Tim Lester found a lot of ways to get Tony Diaz, DJ Vonnahme, and RVZ touches against Wisconsin, and against a defense that is, well, not very good, I don’t see that changing. Hank Brown played his best game last week against the Badgers, he needs to not have a letdown against the Cats.

On paper the Cats have the edge.

ADVANTAGE: Northwestern

Defense

Iowa is allowing ~100 fewer yards per game, is 4th nationally in scoring and rushing defense, 12th in total defense, 11th in sacks (3.0 per game) and 3rd in first-down defense, with three shutouts (most for the program since 1997) and one touchdown allowed over its last eight quarters. Chiles will test them though and he’s the best “dual-threat” QB we’ve faced so far this season.

Northwestern’s yardage numbers are soft (84th in total defense, 94th against the pass, 75th against the run), but it bends without breaking: 25th in scoring defense, and both teams allow scores on 75% of red-zone trips (T-16th). LB Braydon Brus leads the Wildcats with 4 sacks and forced the game’s only turnover at Oregon. The Northwestern secondary has been thinned by injuries, and hopefully Lester can scheme a way to exploit that.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

Special Teams

Caden Buhr has made 11 straight under 50 yards and hit from 51 and 54 in his last two attempts beyond 50 (2-of-4 from 50+ overall); Boston Everitt has 21 of 36 punts downed inside the 20; and Evan James (14th in FBS in punt-return average) and Braeden Jackson (99-yard kickoff-return TD at Michigan) give Iowa a return game Northwestern can’t match.

Northwestern’s Jackson Kleather went 4-of-5 at Oregon (two 37s, two 49s, a 43-yard miss) and is perfect on PATs.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

Numbers to Watch

• 9 – Hank Brown, Iowa QB – 109-of-169 (64.5%) for 1,190 yards and 8 TD; 5-1 as a starter. Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after going 20-of-24 for 222 yards and 2 TD vs. Wisconsin — the highest completion percentage by an Iowa QB in a Big Ten game (min. 20 attempts) since at least 1995 — including 16-of-18 for 190 yards in the first half. First Iowa QB to win the weekly Big Ten award since Nate Stanley in 2018.
• 33 – Cam Buffington, Iowa LB – Butkus Award semifinalist with a team-high 70 tackles (8.8 per game, 2nd in the Big Ten, 29th nationally), 8 TFL and 3 sacks; three double-digit tackle games, including 10 at Minnesota.
• 81 – DJ Vonnahme, Iowa TE – 29 catches for 304 yards in seven games. John Mackey Tight End of the Week after 5 catches for 54 yards, a receiving TD and a 2-yard rushing TD vs. Wisconsin — the first rushing TD by an Iowa tight end since T.J. Hockenson in 2018. His 45-yard catch set up Iowa’s opening field goal.
• 0 – Aidan Chiles, Northwestern QB – 139-of-202 (68.8%) for 1,898 yards, 13 TD and just 1 INT, and the Wildcats’ leading scorer on the ground (see research note on his rushing TD total). Went 22-of-38 for 281 yards and a TD, plus 14 carries for 93 yards and a TD, at Oregon. Ferentz noted Iowa has faced him before and said he’s playing far more consistently now.
• 17 – Griffin Wilde, Northwestern WR – 44 catches for 761 yards and 5 TD; the South Dakota State transfer had 5 catches for 146 yards, including a 64-yard TD, at Oregon, and 144 vs. Ball State (most by a Wildcat since Bryce Kirtz’s 215 vs. Minnesota).

Injury Report

Iowa

• Cael Winter, C — OUT. Injured vs. Wisconsin, after starting the first seven games. Sixth-year Michael Myslinski, who replaced him Saturday, starts at center.
• Tyler Brown, SS — OUT
• Lucas Allgeyer, Trent Wilson & Cannon Leonard, OL — OUT. Leonard is new to the list. Ferentz said Tuesday the interior line is dealing with an appendicitis case and a severely sprained ankle, about six weeks each, without saying which player has which.
• Kamari Moulton, RB — OUT for the season (upper-body/arm injury at Minnesota). Xavier Williams starts.
• Zach Lutmer, S — QUESTIONABLE. Has 48 tackles and 4 pass breakups and has never missed a game;
• Jaylen Watson, CB — QUESTIONABLE. A starter.
• Zach Ortwerth, TE — QUESTIONABLE.
• Dayton Howard, WR — DOUBTFUL.
• DJ Vonnahme, TE — PROBABLE.
• Brevin Doll, RB/RS & Cody Haddad, DB — PROBABLE.
• .

Northwestern

• Aidan Chiles, QB — QUESTIONABLE. Roundtable reports there is “no publicly confirmed explanation.” He finished the Oregon game but went 5-of-14 in the second half. He had a dislocated finger earlier this season. Nicco Marchiol would start if Chiles can’t play.
• Robert Fitzgerald, S — PROBABLE, upgraded after missing multiple weeks. A 2025 second-team All-Big Ten pick, he still leads the team with 2 INTs.
• Jon Jon Stevens Jr., S — QUESTIONABLE. He left the Oregon game on a medical cart after a hit to the head.
• Brendan Flakes, DT — Off the report entirely after being listed out before Oregon, so he appears available.
• Josh Fussell, CB — Status unconfirmed; not named in any coverage of Wednesday’s report.
• Ezomo Oratokhai, OL — OUT for the season.

Lines

As of: Nov. 2, 2026

• Point spread: Northwestern -2.5
• Over/Under: 45.5
• Moneyline: Northwestern -135 / Iowa +114

jNorthwestern has long been a thorn in the side of successful Hawkeye teams and this Wildcats team isn’t looking to play spoiler, they’re on the hunt for the CFP as well. They don’t have a signature win against a ranked team as yet and they’ll be looking to grab one Saturday evening. It’s not their last chance, though I’m sure they think they’ve got a better shot at beating Iowa in Evanston than they do beating OSU in Columbus (even if OSU is without Julian Sayin).

Iowa is playing for its playoff life and I am really hoping that the team that took Wisconsin to the woodshed is the one that shows up this Saturday.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!