Can No. 6 Utes avoid Halloween upset at Cincinnati?

When the Big 12 schedule was released last winter, it was easy to point to Utah’s road trip to Cincinnati as a potential “trap game.”

The Halloween contest was slotted between what many felt was Utah’s first big test of the season, Houston, and the annual rivalry game against BYU. When Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby transferred to Texas Tech, some wondered whether this was going to be more of a rebuilding year for Scott Satterfield’s team.

Most projections and preseason sportsbook odds placed the Bearcats in the bottom third of the league. It seemed like there was a chance that this year’s Utah-Cincinnati matchup would be a far cry from 2025, when ESPN’s “College GameDay” rolled into Salt Lake City for the game between the No. 17 Bearcats and No. 24 Utes.

Then Cincinnati upset No. 8 Texas Tech last Saturday.

Georgia Southern transfer quarterback JC French IV threw for 172 yards and four touchdowns and Cole Tabb rushed for a career-high 173 yards and a score in the Bearcats’ 37-24 upset win.

The Bearcats rushed for 255 yards and exploded for a 21-point second quarter. French threw two interceptions, including a pick-six, but Cincinnati picked off Will Hammond and forced two Texas Tech fumbles.

“It’s not a problem. Our guys are focused, good leaders and they know what’s at stake.”

Utah coach Morgan Scalley about looking ahead on the schedule

The win over the Red Raiders was Cincinnati’s first home win over a top 10 team since 2006. Can the Bearcats make it two in a row with No. 6 Utah in town?

Utah is one of just three undefeated teams left in college football, sitting atop the Big 12 after a big-time 21-13 win over No. 14 Houston last week at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

The Utes answered some key questions in the win. First, they answered the bell against the first ranked team they’ve faced all season after a softer first-half schedule. Utah held Houston’s high-powered offense 26 points below its season average and bottled up the Cougars’ effective run game, limiting Houston to only 86 rushing yards.

While Utah did allow three passes of 41 or more yards against the Cougars, the Utes’ stellar red-zone defense showed up time and again, only allowing one touchdown in three trips inside the 20-yard line.

The Utes also made progress in getting to the quarterback — a season-long concern — pressuring Houston quarterback Conner Weigman eight times and sacking him twice, including Jackson Bennee’s strip sack that helped seal the game.

Quarterback Devon Dampier’s rushing ability was unlocked more than it has been this season as he played to his strengths and took what Houston’s defense was giving him in a 150-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance.

There’s still questions about the No. 6 Utes, namely the amount of explosive passing plays the Utes have allowed, Dampier’s interceptions, and some fruitless periods on offense, but the win against Houston provided Ute fans with a lot of optimism heading into the teeth of the schedule.

Of course, Utah and Morgan Scalley were never going to look past any team, but Cincinnati’s upset win over Texas Tech will make sure that the Bearcats have the full focus of every player on the roster.

“It’s not a problem. Our guys are focused, good leaders and they know what’s at stake,” Scalley said.

The Utes are seven-point road favorites and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives them a 70.8% chance to win.

Can the Utes avoid a trick — and their first loss of the season — on Halloween at Nippert Stadium?

“You get teams that have unbelievable big wins, emotional wins, and then the next week you have the letdown effect. We’re just going to continue to preach that every game is a championship game because it’s hard to win,” Scalley said. “There’s parity. … When teams are playing ranked teams, they’re going to bring it.”

Where could the Utes have the advantage Saturday afternoon?

Cincinnati is allowing an average of 429.4 yards per game, which is nearly dead last in FBS. The Bearcats rank No. 76 in rushing defense (145 yards per game), but they’re giving up an average of 284.4 passing yards per game, which is fourth-worst in the nation, and are allowing 26.4 points per game (No. 95 in the nation).

Last week, Dampier won the game with his legs. This week, there’s the opportunity to win it with his arm.

Dampier has taken a step forward as a passer this season and has the wide receivers to be able to beat the Bearcat defense. That said, he’ll need to be more decisive, be more accurate on deep balls and take care of the ball.

The Bearcats are allowing a lot of yardage, but are No. 14 in the country in turnover margin. The Utes cannot afford an untimely turnover, especially on the road. In the loss, Texas Tech racked up 400 yards, but the three turnovers were a major reason for the upset.

“We can’t turn the ball over. There’s them taking the ball away and then there’s us turning it over just with bad decision making, and we’ve had a couple of those,” Scalley said.

While Cincinnati is better at defending the run than the pass, there will be opportunities for running back Wayshawn Parker to establish himself. Last week, Houston keyed on Parker and dared Dampier to beat them with his legs, which he did. Will the Bearcats be able to execute a similar game plan, or will Parker be able to make an impact early?

When the Bearcats have the ball, it’s all about stopping the run.

Utah has been excellent against the rush so far, slowing down Iowa State and Houston’s rushing attacks. Cincinnati boasts the nation’s eighth-best rushing offense at 234.6 yards per game, led by one of the best offensive lines in the conference.

Starting center Taran Tyo is questionable for Saturday’s contest, though, and his absence could impact things greatly.

Running behind that offensive line is Cole Tabb, the Stanford transfer that is hitting his stride at the right time for the Bearcats. Tabb has 621 yards and nine touchdowns and is spelled by Gi’Bran Payne, who has 418 yards and two scores. French can run when needed, too — he has 291 rushing yards and six scores.

While French is a good quarterback, if Utah can stop the run and make Cincinnati one-dimensional, it’ll go a long way toward staving off the upset.

French has thrown for 1,510 yards and 13 touchdowns on 69.4% accuracy this season. He has been one of the least turnover-prone quarterbacks in the country, with his two interceptions this season coming against Texas Tech.

Getting pressure on French will be a big key, just like it was against Houston. French has faced pressure on 29.3% of his dropbacks this season, with his completion rate dropping to just 41% on those plays. When blitzed, French’s completion rate drops to 57.9%.

Cincinnati has allowed 14 sacks this season, so teams are getting to French. Utah needs to dial up the pressure early and often and make French uncomfortable.

Nippert Stadium will be rocking as the Bearcats try to pull off another top 10 upset. The Utes, playing just their third road game of the season, will try to quiet the crowd early.

“We’ve got a great team in Cincinnati that we’re facing. Obviously they just beat a top 10 program in the country in Texas Tech and they’re hosting another one,” Scalley said. “So it’s going to be a great environment on Halloween and we’re excited that we’re going to have to be road warriors for the next three out of the four weeks that we play.”