Charting Iowa’s Path to the Playoffs

Saturday night, the Iowa Hawkeyes notched their seventh win. With three games to go, and Iowa likely to be favored, maybe heavily favored, in every one of them, it’s time to start thinking about the Hawkeyes’ College Football Playoff possibilities.

While it would be nice to think that a 10-win Big Ten team would be assured of making the Playoffs, the Iowa Hawkeyes are a potential 10-win Big Ten team with no signature victories and one bad loss to a mediocre Minnesota team, not to mention a loss to an Ohio State team that is looking less like a “good” loss by the week.

In short, it’s probable Iowa might need some help to get to the Playoffs.

The Overall Landscape

There are 12 Playoff spots. Four of them will go to the four Power-Four champions. One of them will go to one Group-of-Six representative. Also, by virtue of beating Miami this weekend, Notre Dame punched its de facto ticket unless, of course, it completely falls apart in its final three games against Boston College (4-5), SMU (7-2) and Syracuse (4-5). And a loss to SMU probably wouldn’t doom them. So, for now, it’s safe to pencil Notre Dame in there.

That leaves six at-large spots.

Like it or not, at least three of those at-large spots will go to SEC teams. You can argue SEC bias as much as you want, but the reality is that three is the bare minimum at-large spots the SEC will receive.

One of the at-large spots will go to the Big Ten.

Another of them will go to the Big 12.

Which leaves one at-large spot that, right now, has four possibilities. The first is that the Big Ten gets its third representative. The second is that the Big 12 gets a second at-large bid. The third is that the SEC gets its fifth team in the pool. And the last is that Wake Forest or Miami, whichever doesn’t win the ACC championship, gets the slot.

Three of those four are not going to happen. Iowa fans are hoping that whatever else happens, the Big Ten gets a second at-large bid as, if Iowa wins out, there is a good chance that bid would go to the Hawkeyes.

What Iowa Has to Do

There are two things that are in Iowa’s hands. First, and obviously, it needs to win the remainder of its three games. As previously mentioned, it will be favored in all of those games. The current line against Purdue next week has the Hawks favored by 16.5. Iowa will probably have a similar line against Nebraska in the final week and a much more modest, but still favorable, line on the road against Illinois.

Secondly, as much as Kirk Ferentz hates it, style points will matter. He can’t eke out three-point nail biters against Purdue and Nebraska. He needs to win and win decisively. And better, he needs to take the lead in the first half, at which point it’s mostly likely the people who matter are actually watching.

The Big Ten Landscape

Within the Big Ten, the teams that have the most direct road to the Big Ten Championship and similarly, the clearest path to the Playoffs, are 9-0 UCLA and the 8-1 Hoosiers. As Iowa fans, we are rooting for both of them. Neither has a head-to-head against Iowa, and it would take an unlikely collapse from either of these teams to seriously affect the Hawkeyes’ chances. It is best for Iowa if the Bruins and Hoosiers go to the Big Ten Championship and on to the Playoffs, and Iowa is in line for that potential third Big Ten spot.

Of course, it is possible that UCLA loses its last three, but in order to do that the Bruins would have to lose to USC which would then put the Trojans above Iowa. Meanwhile, IU could lose to USC next week, but it would take another loss for Iowa to jump the Hoosiers, and with Indiana’s final two games against Washington and Purdue, really, what are the chances it loses?

Right now, the other 7-2 team in the Big Ten is USC, and that is where Iowa’s rooting interests most heavily lie. Iowa fans very much want USC to lose.

First of all, while USC does have a bad loss to Wisconsin, it’s not as bad a loss as Iowa’s L against Minnesota. And USC’s loss to Oregon is not a bad loss. On top of that Southern Cal has a win over OSU which doesn’t look as good as it did two weeks ago, but it’s more than Iowa’s loss to the Buckeyes.

Furthermore, if USC does win out and goes 10-2, it would have beaten Indiana–next week–and UCLA–last game of the season–to get there. That will look a whole lot better on the Trojans’ resume than anything Iowa will be able to show. And an 11-1 UCLA still goes to the Playoffs over Iowa, so it’s not as though you’d be exchanging one LA team for another.

If it comes down to a 10-2 Iowa and a 10-2 USC, the Trojans will win every single time.

Southern Cal finishes with games against Indiana, Maryland and UCLA. Iowa fans very much want the Trojans to lose at least two of those final three games. In fact, losses to both IU and UCLA would be helpful as it’s possible a 9-3 USC, with a win over either IU or UCLA, passes a 10-2 Iowa with a win over nobody of any significance.

It is also worth noting the three 6-3 Big Ten teams–Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon–that have an outside chance of passing Iowa in the Playoff standings.

First are the Buckeyes which are very much on the decline, but if they win out, even at 9-3, they will have a win over Iowa. The thing is, the way they’re playing, they’re unlikely to win out. Then there is Illinois which, if it beats UCLA next week, will have a signature win and will be playing for everything when it hosts the Hawkeyes in two weeks. But Iowa is in control of its destiny there.

Oregon, however, poses problems. Its final three games are against Michigan, Michigan State and Washington which are all very winnable games. It has an out-of-conference loss to Oklahoma State which is not good but not awful. It also has a respectable loss to UCLA and a loss to Illinois which is not as embarrassing as it looked two weeks ago. On top of that, it trounced Ohio State.

It’s unlikely a nine-win Oregon jumps a 10-win Iowa, especially if Iowa beats an Illinois team that beat Oregon, but you never know. Best for Iowa fans to root for an unlikely Oregon loss in there, just to be safe.

So the TL;DR version of all of the above: Iowa fans are rooting heavily against USC and Oregon, and another Buckeye loss wouldn’t hurt either.

The Big 12 Landscape

The relevant teams are 9-0 Utah and 8-1 Texas Tech as well as 7-2 BYU, Houston and Arizona.

The problem with these teams is that they’ve all played each other as much as they’re going to, with one exception. Utah has beaten BYU and Houston, and the Utes play Arizona next week. It is best for Iowa fans if they beat Arizona, take them out of the picture, and then Utah marches straight into the Playoffs.

BYU has losses to Utah to go along with a bad loss to UCF, but the Cougars have a very good win over Notre Dame. And with remaining games at Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati, they are unlikely to lose another. Add to that a 10-win BYU team was kept out of the Playoffs last year that, in my opinion, was due to two undeserving SEC teams–Oklahoma and Alabama–getting in over both them and a deserving Notre Dame. That is old news, but it would reflect poorly on the Playoff Committee to leave a 10-win BYU team out two years in a row.

Then there is Texas Tech which has beaten Houston and Arizona, but has played nobody else of any significance and will play nobody else of any significance. The Red Raiders have a bad loss to Cincinnati, but good luck keeping an 11-win Red Raiders and their Cody-Campbell money out of the Playoffs.

Meanwhile, the rest of Houston’s season is a cakewalk, and it will likely end the season with 10 wins. The Cougars will not have any signature wins, but both of their losses were by two points to Texas Tech and then Utah; in other words, “good” losses which can be contrasted with Iowa’s “bad” loss to Minnesota.

The Big 12 is a lock to get a second at-large bid, and you can hope that at least two of BYU, Tech and Houston drop a third game, but it’s unlikely. The more likely hope is that the strength of Big-Ten sway and politics overrides a third Big-12 at-large bid.

Nevertheless, a third Big-12 Playoff bid is probably the biggest concern against a third Big-Ten bid.

TL;DR: root against Arizona, BYU, Texas Tech and Houston and hope Big Ten power, of which it has a lot more than the Big 12, wins out.

SEC Landscape

The Big Ten, however, does not have more power and sway than the SEC. In back rooms, it’s probably even, but in the court of public opinion and the media, the SEC is far more powerful.

And partially due to that power, the SEC is putting at least three at-large bids into the Playoffs to go with its conference champion. The best bet for the Big Ten, and thus Iowa, is that there are as few nine-win SEC teams as possible. It’s better that there are more 10-and-8 wins teams as opposed to all the teams cannibalizing each other and winding up with nine wins.

The potential 10+-win SEC teams: Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas and Tennessee.

The potential nine-win teams include Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU and Mizzou.

Georgia finishes the season against South Carolina, Mizzou and Georgia Tech. Iowa fans are Georgia fans here as the Bulldogs could single-handedly eliminate two teams.

Bama plays Vanderbilt, Chattanooga (really trying hard there Bama, aren’t you?) and Auburn to close out the season. The Tide will be favored in all of them. As much as it pains me, a nine-win Bama would not be good for the Big Ten, so you want Bama to win out. You could hope they lose two of them, but that’s unrealistic.

The Wildcats play Florida, Mizzou and Louisville. It’s best if Kentucky either loses at least two of those matchups or wins all of them.

Texas plays LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Tennessee plays Texas A&M, LSU and Vanderbilt. We want one of Texas or Tennessee to beat LSU and then we want LSU to beat the other. Then, if that happens, we want at least one underdog victory against the team that lost to LSU.

That would leave Ole Miss which plays Oklahoma, Woffard (really?) and Mississippi State. In those games, we are OU and MSU fans.

If it all plays out in the best way possible, 10-win Georgia and Bama are in the Playoffs along with nine-win Texas and Tennessee. This best-case scenario, however, is highly unlikely.

If it plays out in the worst way possible, there will be five 10-win SEC teams, and that will be the kiss of death for the Big Ten and for Iowa. The worst-case scenario, unfortunately, is not that unlikely.

A middle-of-the-road scenario, and the most likely scenario, has four 10-win SEC teams with two-three 9-win teams. At that point, you have a reasonable shot of a 10-win Iowa getting preference over the 9-win SEC teams.

TL;DR: Iowa fans are rooting for Georgia and Bama. They want Kentucky to win all the rest of its games or lose at least two of them. Then you’re rooting for LSU to lose to one of Texas/Tennessee, beat one of Texas/Tennessee, and then the one that lost to LSU to lose another one.

ACC Landscape

An 11-1 Wake Forest or Miami team is in the mix as well—whichever one doesn’t win the ACC. But, in my very humble opinion, the ACC has no cache outside of Miami and FSU, both of which have gotten the benefit of the doubt for far too long, and it’s hard to think of a Power-Four program with less national prestige than Wake Forest. Plus, the ACC got a favor from the Playoff Committee last year by including Miami (even though the Canes deserved to be in there and it was the SEC that got the break, but that’s not how the media framed it).

Wake Forest will likely play Miami in the ACC Title Game. The winner of that will get the ACC’s spot in the Playoffs. The loser doesn’t. Root for Miami as Iowa could get the nod over 11-1 Wake Forest. It won’t get the nod over 11-1 Miami.

Conclusion

It’s unfortunate that Iowa, if it should win 10 games, has to depend on a lot to happen in order to get to the Playoffs, but that loss to Minnesota was bad. Really bad. And it’s made worse because Minnesota lost badly to Mississippi State to start the year.

What we do know is that Iowa will not pass any 10-win SEC teams. It will not pass a 10-win USC. It has a chance of passing a 10-win Big-12 team, but it’s at best a 50-50 chance. And it would have a good chance of passing an 11-win Wake Forest but it is highly unlikely to pass an 11-win Miami.

It has a reasonable chance of passing a 9-win SEC team or 9-win Oregon, but it’s best if it doesn’t come to that.

TL;DR

In the Big Ten, root against USC, Oregon and OSU.

In the Big 12, you can unrealistically hope at least two of Texas Tech, BYU and Houston lose one-two games, but the more realistic hope is that none of those teams win any style points and Big-Ten power holds sway over inferior Big 12-power.

In the SEC, you’re rooting for Georgia. You can unrealistically root against Bama, but there’s not much point to it; better that they just win out. You either want Kentucky to win out or to lose at least two of its final three. Finally, you’re rooting for LSU to lose to one of Texas/Tennessee, beat one of Texas/Tennessee, and then the one that lost to LSU to lose another one.

In the ACC, you can root against Wake Forest and Miami for good measure, then root for Miami in the championship game. After that, depend on Big-Ten power over whatever the ACC is offering which, thankfully, isn’t that much.

Right now, Kalshi has Iowa with 33% chance of making the Playoffs which is the 12th-best odds. Draftkings is more bearish with Iowa at +205 for 15th-best odds. AtoZ has Iowa at 13th with 36% chance.