College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: SEC Strength, Notre Dame's Concern Headline First Rankings

The first edition of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s top 25 rankings is always an intriguing exercise. The initial release provides a window into what the committee could value this season and how it shapes the rest of the schedule. On Tuesday night, with 10 teams in the top 25, the committee clearly showed it believes the SEC is the strongest conference and is giving the league a bump perhaps due to its nine-game conference slate.

However, on the flip side, the first set of rankings showcased major concern for Notre Dame and Ohio State. The Fighting Irish won’t have a marquee win on their resume if they lose to Miami this weekend. At No. 11, coach Marcus Freeman’s squad can’t afford a loss on Saturday and feel confident in a return trip to the playoff. The Buckeyes are also in trouble at No. 12. Quarterback Julian Sayin is out indefinitely due to injury, but even with a head-to-head win over No. 4 Indiana, the committee just isn’t buying this team with a backup signal-caller.

With a massive slate of games on tap in Week 10, these rankings and overall bubble outlook will change significantly by next Tuesday.

What do the first set of rankings for ’26 tell us about what could happen on the bubble this season? Athlon Sports examines the first release and breaks down which teams are in great shape, which teams have work to do, and which teams are squarely on the bubble:

College Football Playoff Bubble Watch

ACC

In: Miami (No. 1)

On the Bubble: Wake Forest (No. 16)

Barring a complete collapse over the final month, Miami should return to the College Football Playoff. Can the ‘Canes hold the No. 1 spot in the ranking? That likely hinges on whether or not coach Mario Cristobal’s team beats Notre Dame on Saturday night. Miami should be a significant favorite for its final three games, which take place at home against Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College.

Can the ACC get a second team into the field? Even though Wake Forest is 7-1 and possesses one of the nation’s top offenses (39.1 points a game), the selection committee didn’t show much love to coach Jake Dickert’s team on Tuesday night. A 30-27 victory over Louisville is the only win over a team with a winning record for the Demon Deacons this season. Getting into an at-large spot is possible, but at No. 16 in the first ranking, Wake Forest’s best path looks like a victory in the ACC Championship Game to secure the automatic bid.

Big 12

In: Utah (No. 3) and BYU (No. 9)

On the Bubble: Texas Tech (No. 15), Houston (No. 17) and Arizona (No. 22)

Saturday’s Holy War rivalry between Utah and BYU will help provide clarity in a chaotic Big 12 title race. After losing to UCF on Oct. 24, another defeat to the Utes would leave the Cougars without much margin for error the rest of the way.

Texas Tech, Houston and Arizona are also alive for at-large positioning, with the Wildcats hosting Utah on Nov. 14 in a massive Big 12 showdown with playoff implications. Both Houston and Arizona have two defeats, with Texas Tech’s only loss coming at Cincinnati. The Red Raiders’ remaining schedule is light, with games against West Virginia, Oklahoma State (road), Baylor (road) and TCU remaining. The best path for Texas Tech to make the playoff could be as Big 12 champion.

The Big 12 is seemingly in good shape to get two teams into the field. But which two teams make the field is a big question entering November.

Big Ten

In: Indiana (No. 4), UCLA (No. 8)

On the Bubble: Ohio State (No. 12), Iowa (No. 19), USC (No. 20) and Oregon (No. 23)

Tuesday night’s rankings weren’t the best for the Big Ten, as undefeated UCLA checked in at No. 8 and Ohio State placed No. 12. Also, USC at No. 20 was lower than the Associated Press Top 25 rankings (No. 18).

However, with a month to go, the Big Ten has plenty of playoff hopefuls and jockeying to come. After an off week this Saturday, Indiana hosts USC in a crucial game for positioning for both teams. Ohio State and Oregon play this week in a potential elimination game. The selection committee’s No. 12 ranking of the Buckeyes is likely taking into account the expected long-term absence of Sayin.

UCLA’s trip to Minnesota is intriguing, but coach Bob Chesney’s team still has to face off against Illinois, Michigan (road) and USC to close its ‘26 slate.

SEC

In: Georgia (No. 2), Alabama (No. 5), Kentucky (No. 6), Texas (No. 7), Ole Miss (No. 10)

On the Bubble: Tennessee (No. 13), LSU (No. 14), Missouri (No. 18), South Carolina (No. 21), Florida (No. 24)

If there were questions about how the selection committee would weigh the SEC’s strength of schedule and nine-game conference slate, those doubts or concerns by the league were seemingly answered on Tuesday night. Five SEC teams made the projected field, with five more teams in the top 25.

Alabama at No. 5 was easily the biggest surprise in the first rankings. Although the Crimson Tide face a tough road trip to LSU this week, the remainder of the ‘26 slate is favorable with matchups against Vanderbilt (road), Chattanooga and Auburn. Considering the selection committee’s high opinion of coach Kalen DeBoer’s team in the first ranking, is Alabama relatively safe even with a close loss to LSU this week?

Intrigue is easily the best way to sum up the SEC’s bubble outlook for the rest of the way. This conference still has a handful of massive showdowns coming in Week 10 and later this month, including Texas-LSU, LSU-Tennessee and Georgia-South Carolina.

After the first ranking, the SEC is in a strong position to get at least four and potentially as many as five teams in the field.

Independents

In: Notre Dame (No. 11)

At No. 11, Notre Dame is the last team in the projected 12-team field. As long as the Fighting Irish finish inside of the top 12 this season, they will be guaranteed a spot in the playoff.

However, the No. 11 ranking should concern Freeman and Co. If Notre Dame loses to Miami on Saturday night, a 10-2 schedule without a marquee win would be in major danger of missing the playoff once again. The stakes were already high for the showdown between the Fighting Irish and Hurricanes this week. But the selection committee rankings upped the ante even more for Freeman’s team considering the No. 11 ranking and light schedule ahead.

Group of 6

In: Boise State (No. 25)

Boise State was the only Group of 6 team to make the top 25 this week. The Broncos, now in the Pac-12, are likely competing against Mountain West favorite New Mexico and the champion of the American Conference (UTSA, Memphis or North Texas most likely) for the last guaranteed spot in the field.

Related: 2026 Bowl Projections After Week 9: South Carolina, Wake Forest and USC on the Rise

Related: College Football Rankings: Athlon Sports Top 25 (After Week 9)

Related: College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 9

This story was originally published by Athlon on Nov 4, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon as a Preferred Source by clicking here.