College Football Playoff Predictions Week 9: Is Utah the Best Team in the Country Ahead of the First CFP Rankings?

The first Tuesday in November can only mean one thing: the release of the initial College Football Playoff rankings. The committee is currently entrenched in an Austin hotel, deciding the fate of 138 teams based on their performances so far this season and a handful of factors that no one involved in the sport truly understands.

Our latest College Football Playoff predictions lean on PFN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) data to project the 12-team bracket. In the most unpredictable of seasons, these might not resemble the established order we’ve seen historically, but presume that the chaos of the early season continues for the remaining weeks.

College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round

• No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
• No. 9 Wake Forest vs. No. 8 LSU
• No. 11 BYU vs. No. 6 Ohio State
• No. 10 UCLA vs. No. 7 Texas Tech

The Boise State Broncos survived their own scare against the Texas State Bobcats, after watching the James Madison Dukes capitulate, to maintain their stranglehold on the Group of Six race to the College Football Playoff. A date with the Oregon State Beavers looms large, but Spencer Danielson’s team has a 48.1% chance of sealing a spot in the postseason tournament.

While the presumptive Pac-12 champion has been a regular feature in our College Football Playoff predictions, the rest of the projected bracket swings wildly with every passing week. As the SEC continues to cannibalize itself, is there really a world where only two teams from the self-titled best conference in football make it into the 12-team playoff?

The answer might feel like no, but where cannonballing toward a scenario where there are multiple three-loss SEC teams where it’s hard to make an argument that they deserve to be above multiple two-loss teams from other conferences.

The prime example here is the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who could end the year with just two losses — both to a Miami Hurricanes team ranked as one of the best in the nation. Jake Dickert’s team currently has a 78.3% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff according to PFN’s FPM.

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Similarly, can you argue that a three-loss Texas Longhorns team that lost to an Oklahoma Sooners team that just fired their offensive coordinator because of how terrible they’ve been on that side of the ball deserves to be included over a BYU Cougars team that beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and whose other loss could be against the projected number one team in the country?

The Big 12 should be in a great spot if the favorites all follow the win probabilities, with the Utah Utes (93.2%), Texas Tech Red Raiders (60.5%) and BYU (41.0%) all having good odds to finish the year ranked within the top 12 teams. Naturally, the initial College Football Playoff rankings will tell us much more about how the committee views these resumes ahead of Week 10.

If someone had told you that the UCLA Bruins would be a legitimate College Football Playoff contender ahead of the season, you’d have called them a liar. Yet, Bob Chesney has completely changed the fortunes — and perception — of this program, and they currently have a 67.0% probability of reaching the 12-team tournament.

And what of Notre Dame? Despite the loss to BYU, and the impending collision with Miami, the Irish have a 97.1% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. However, because of that loss to the Cougars, they only have a 14.5% probability of being a top-four seed.

College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Utah vs. No. 8 LSU
• Peach Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Texas Tech
• Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Miami (FL) vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
• Rose Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ohio State

With a top-10 offense and a top-25 defense by PFN’s impact metrics, Utah enters Week 10 as the number two team in our power rankings, but with the potential to end the year as an undefeated Big 12 champion which would be a difficult resume to ignore as a potential top team in the final College Football Playoff rankings.

The LSU Tigers already have two losses on their resume (Ole Miss Rebels and Kentucky Wildcats). However, if they run a schedule that includes Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee, they will have absolutely earned a spot in the SEC Championship Game. A loss in that game likely won’t count against them in the final CFP rankings.

The Georgia Bulldogs remain the favorite to run the SEC, with a 61.6% chance of a title game appearance and a 38.5% shot to become SEC champions. That path to the postseason would likely yield a top-two seed in the College Football Playoff for a Kirby Smart-led team that looks more dangerous for their upset loss to Auburn.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the more fascinating conversations to be had ahead of the initial College Football Playoff rankings reveal. The losses to Texas and the USC Trojans are problematic, as is their quarterback situation, but their remaining schedule opens the door to a Big Ten title appearance and, potentially, a trilogy against the Indiana Hoosiers.

College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal

• Orange Bowl: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Utah
• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ohio State

PFN’s latest College Football Playoff predictions assume that, if the Buckeyes navigate the rest of the Big Ten season without stumbling, Julian Sayin could return for the postseason. With their Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback, the Buckeyes could make it all the way to the semifinal stage, but could they upset the Bulldogs?

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Notre Dame currently has a 48.7% chance of reaching the semifinal stage, according to PFN’s FPM, while the Utes have a 42.4% probability of being a final four team. Devon Dampier has established himself as one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country, but can he overpower this incredible Fighting Irish defense?

College Football Playoff National Championship Game

• No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia

Although both Notre Dame and Georgia have an unlikely loss on their resume entering Week 10, they are undoubtably two of the very best teams in the country. Our College Football Playoff predictions have featured a Fighting Irish vs. Bulldogs national title game almost every week of the season, a reflection of the strengths of the two teams.

According to PFN’s FPM, Notre Dame has a 29.2% chance of reaching the College Football National Championship Game, with a 17.0% probability of being crowned national champions. Georgia’s chances are significantly less, at just 6.7%, but that’s the sort of disrespect level that Smart’s teams thrive upon.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.