Gophers desperately need more from its offense at Penn State

MINNESOTA at PENN STATE

When: 6 p.m. CT Saturday
Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, Pa.
Stream: FS1
Radio: KFXN-100.3 FM
Weather: 39 degrees, overcast, 9 mph east win
Betting spread: Penn State, minus-9.5

Records: The Gophers (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) were tied with then-No. 8 UCLA 17-17 at home in the fourth quarter but couldn’t keep up in a 34-20 loss. Penn State (5-4, 2-4) staked a 28-6 halftime lead against Washington and held on for a 28-25 win in Seattle.

Trends: Coming off its bye, Penn State snapped a four-game conference losing streak with wins over Purdue, 31-17, and Washington, while Minnesota lost its second straight to a top 10 team after the 23-16 overtime defeat at then-No. 4 Indiana on Oct. 31.

History: The Gophers possess their three traditional rivalry trophies for the first time since 1978, so they have never held all four, with the Governor’s Victory Bell starting with Penn State in 1993. It was introduced when independent Penn State joined the Big Ten.

“It’s obviously super exciting to have another opportunity to play for another rivalry trophy,” Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey said. “Having four this year is really special.”

RELATED: Penn State reporter breaks down Gophers next opponent

Context: Minnesota is 6-11 against Penn State all-time and 2-6 in Happy Valley. Minnesota nearly beat a fourth-ranked Nittany Lions team at home in 2024, but Penn State converted on three fourth downs on a long fourth-quarter drive to ice a 26-25 victory.

Big question: Is offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh coaching for his job?

Through last week, at least seven Big Ten coordinators have been fired, including OCs at Michigan (Jason Beck), Oregon (Drew Mehringer) and Nebraska (Dana Holgorsen).

Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck has stuck with Harbaugh this year, but the recent results have been poorer than usual. Over the last five games, Minnesota has averaged 16.4 points per game; that would check in at 136th out of 138 FBS teams this year. Since becoming the U’s play caller in 2023, the Gophers have ranked outside the top 75 points per game each year.

Key matchup: Penn State running backs Carson Hansen (a Lakeville South alum) and James Peoples vs. U linebackers Maverick Baranowski and Joey Gerlach.

Coming out of the bye, the Nittany Lions’ running game helped them produce their first two conference wins. Using multiple tight-ends formations and gap-scheme plays with varying pulling linemen, PSU have rushed for 221 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game.

Two of the Gophers top three tacklers will need to diagnose the plays and meet those tailbacks in holes for minimal gains. They will also need to corral dynamic quarterback Rocco Becht.

Connection: Fleck and new Penn State coach Matt Campbell share the same birthday (Nov. 29) and played against each other three times in the Mid-American Conference. Campbell’s Toledo won twice (2013, ’14) and Fleck’s Western Michigan came out on top once (’15).

“I think he’s a really good football coach,” Fleck said. “I respect the heck out of him and the job he did at Iowa State and Toledo and what he’s going to do at Penn State. This team’s gotten so much better from when they started to where they are now and I think that’s what he does really well: stays the course. He’s really good at development and I think you can already see that.”

Stats: Penn State’s pass defense is No. 1 in the nation at pass yards per attempt (5.4) and its coverage grade (92.6) is No. 3 in the country. That doesn’t bode well for a Gophers passing game often stuck going sideways — with a reliance of screen passes.

Nugget: Gophers defensive end Anthony Smith of Shippensburg, Pa., didn’t play the last time the U went to Penn State in 2022. He estimated he will have 150 tickets for family and friends on Saturday. “Got a lot for Minnesota fans from Pennsylvania,” he said.

Key injuries: Gophers have listed a few key players as questionable for Saturday’s game: cornerback John Nestor, defensive tackles Riley Sunram, Theo Randle, tight ends Pierce Walsh, Julian Johnson and linebacker Mason Carrier.

Nestor would be the biggest absence, especially with Penn State wideout Chase Sowell being a key threat. Nestor has been playing at an all-Big Ten level across his 501 total snaps this season. Fellow CB Aydan West has played 499, but there is a drop off in playing time after that to Naiim Parrish (122).

Prediction: It’s fitting the Gophers are considered a 9.5-point underdog because it’s hard to see them keeping it a one-score game amid this offensive rut. Penn State, 28-19