How can Oklahoma State football make Big 12 title game? Breaking down Cowboys' path

The race to Arlington, Texas, has been whittled to five.

Utah is the lone undefeated team (4-0) in Big 12 play — and one of three unbeatens in all of college football — and then there’s a quartet of teams tied for second at 3-1 in the conference: Arizona, BYU, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are still technically alive with two conference losses, but they have no margin for error and would need a whole lot of help to make it to the Dec. 4 title game at AT&T Stadium. That’s a Friday night kickoff on ABC, by the way.

Let’s take a look at how OSU’s path to the Big 12 Championship Game compares to that of its other four primary challengers.

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Oklahoma State: 5-2 (3-1)

Remaining games: at Iowa State, at Kansas State, vs. Texas Tech, at Arizona State, vs. Kansas

Combined Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 8-12

Odds to win Big 12 title:+550 (15.4%)

The Cowboys, armed with the best offense in the Big 12, have the easiest remaining schedule of the five teams vying for Arlington.

Of the Utah, Arizona, BYU and Texas Tech group, OSU only plays the Red Raiders.

The Cowboys have three road games as opposed to two home games, but the road games are at Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State, which are a combined 4-8 in conference play. OSU projects to be the favorites in all three.

OSU closes with a home game against Kansas. That should be an automatic win.

Everything hinges on Nov. 14, when OSU hosts Texas Tech. Eric Morris vs. his alma mater. And right now, I’d have the Cowboys as slight favorites at home.

OSU might very well be favored in every remaining game, but you’d still get plus odds on the Cowboys winning out.

It’s too soon to figure out all the potential scenarios and tiebreakers, but here’s a straightforward path OSU fans can root for: OSU wins out and Utah wins out.

That would guarantee an OSU-Utah matchup in the Big 12 title.

What a turnaround it’s been under Morris, who took over a program that went a combined 0-18 in the Big 12 in the past two seasons.

Arizona: 6-1 (3-1)

Remaining games: at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, vs. Utah, at Kansas State, vs. Arizona State

Home/road split: 3/2

Combined Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 11-9

Odds to win Big 12 title: +650 (13.3%)

Arizona lost at BYU way back in Week 2. The Wildcats have since rattled off three consecutive conference wins: vs. Cincinnati, at West Virginia, vs. Iowa State. Not exactly the toughest slate, but credit Brent Brennan’s squad for winning the games it should.

The Wildcats’ next game is its toughest. Arizona plays at Texas Tech at 11 a.m. Saturday.

It’s not necessarily an elimination game, but it might be. If Arizona escapes from Lubbock with a win, the Wildcats’ Nov. 14 home game against Utah will be massive.

The Wildcats rank top-five in the Big 12 in total offense and defense.

BYU: 6-1 (3-1)

Remaining games: vs. Arizona State, at Utah, vs. Baylor, at Kansas, vs. Cincinnati

Home/road split: 3/2

Combined Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 11-9

Odds to win Big 12 title: +380 (20.8%)

Beating Notre Dame one week and losing at UCF the next. That’s college football in 2026.

The Big 12’s hopes of getting two teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff took a crushing blow after both BYU and Texas Tech were upset a week ago, but the Cougars are still very much in contention.

BYU will be considerable favorites in its three remaining home games: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati. At Kansas should be another win.

The Holy War looms. BYU at Utah on Nov. 7 might be the game of the year in the Big 12.

If the Cougars can win in Salt Lake City, they’ll have the inside track to Arlington.

BYU is 18-4 in its last 22 Big 12 games.

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Texas Tech: 6-1 (3-1)

Remaining games: vs. Arizona, vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, vs. TCU

Home/road split: 3/2

Combined Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 11-10

Odds to win Big 12 title:+500 (16.7%)

The sky is falling in Lubbock after one loss. Just wait to see what happens if Texas Tech loses at home to Arizona on Saturday. The Red Raiders are touchdown favorites.

After that, Texas Tech’s toughest game is at OSU. Think Boone Pickens Stadium will be rocking for that one?

Texas Tech has slightly better odds than OSU of winning the Big 12 title, according to FanDuel. I’d have the Cowboys ahead of the Red Raiders but behind Utah and BYU.

Utah: 7-0 (4-0)

Remaining games: at Cincinnati, vs. BYU, at Arizona, at TCU, vs. West Virginia

Home/road split: 2/3

Combined Big 12 record of remaining opponents: 11-10

Odds to win Big 12 title: +180 (35.7%)

Don’t pencil in the Utes just yet. Utah is only a touchdown favorite at Cincinnati. Then comes the Holy War. And then a trip to Tucson, Arizona.

Morgan Scalley has done a superb job in taking over for his former boss, Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are probably the most well-rounded team in the conference.

Utah, UCLA and Miami are the last three undefeated teams in the country. The Utes control their own destiny to Arlington and beyond.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

OSU vs. Iowa State

KICKOFF: 6 p.m. Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa (Fox)

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: How can Oklahoma State football make Big 12 title game? Breaking down Cowboys' path