MC&J: Ohio State is favored over Northwestern by nearly 2 touchdowns and other Week 11 action

Last week ATS: 5-10 (2-5 National, 3-5 B1G)

Season ATS: 92-92 (37-40 National, 55-52 B1G)

Times are tough right now. Not only are the Buckeyes a tough watch, but so are my picks over the last three weeks.

After touting a strong start to the season, what I feared has come true. All the gains have been erased.

Now with a three-week sprint to the end of the regular season, this is the time to turn things around. There are a bunch of interesting games on the schedule this week.

Hopefully they play out the way I’m thinking they will.

National games

No. 22 Missouri v. No.1 Georgia (-15.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Right now Georgia looks like the best team in the country. The Bulldogs just went into Oxford and completely shut down a potent Ole Miss offense.

Since their shocking loss to Auburn, Georgia has outscored their opponents 69-15 over the last two games. With the running game of the Bulldogs rolling up nearly 300 yards on the ground against the Rebels, Gunner Stockton only needed to complete nine passes last week. Four of those completions were touchdowns.

Missouri started the season with a ton of promise, but has now lost two of its last three games. Last week, the Tigers entered the fourth quarter tied with Texas before falling apart and losing 34-20. Now Missouri has to head to Athens to take on the top team in the country.

Missouri has the look of a team that was given an artificial boost just because they are from the SEC. The blowout of Florida doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did a month ago.

When the Tigers have played actual decent teams, they haven’t looked good. I don’t see that changing on Saturday.

Georgia 37, Missouri 14

No. 2 Utah (-2.5) v. No. 23 Arizona – 7:30 p.m. ET – FOX

Utah is in the midst of its best season since Urban Meyer was head coach of the Utes for a year.

Last week’s Holy War was a wild game. Utah went up 14-0 early, blew their lead, and then regrouped to secure a 28-20 win over BYU. The defense of the Utes intercepted quarterback Bear Bachmeier four times in the game to snap a three-game losing streak to the Cougars.

With a 24-team playoff, there is no doubt Arizona would be a serious contender to make the postseason. The only two losses for the Wildcats this year have come to BYU and Texas Tech by a combined 19 points. Noah Fifita brings veteran experience to the table, leading an Arizona offense that has scored at least 20 points in all but one game.

This feels like a prime letdown spot for Utah. Last week was an emotional win for the Utes. Now they have to hit the road to take on Arizona, who needs a win to stay alive in the race for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Fifita won’t make the same mistakes Bachmeier did last week.

Utah drops from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Arizona 30, Utah 27

No. 6 Texas v. No. 21 LSU (-4.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Last week, Texas was able to survive a trip to Missouri, while LSU fumbled a chance to state their case for a College Football Playoff spot, losing to Alabama in Baton Rouge. The Tigers still have a shot to impress the committee if they can beat the Longhorns this week, and Tennessee next week.

Arch Manning had one of his better games of the season last week against Missouri, throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. What is concerning about the Longhorns is that they are struggling to run the football after the loss of Hollywood Smothers to injury. Last week they were only able to total 104 yards on the ground in Columbia.

Lane Kiffin’s first year as LSU head coach has been anything but smooth. Somehow the Tigers are still alive in the CFP race, though. I’m not convinced LSU loses two games in a row at home, especially with this game being under the lights in Death Valley.

This has the feeling of a game Texas blows in stupefying fashion.

LSU 31, Texas 24

B1G games

Northwestern v. No. 20 Ohio State (-12.5) – 12:o0 p.m. ET – FOX

First thoughts for anyone looking at this spread are that the Buckeyes have no business being favored by nearly two touchdowns after what they have shown over their last two games.

Amazingly, Northwestern has been even worse over the last two weeks. After blowing a second-half lead at Oregon, the Wildcats were dominated by Iowa at home last week.

Even though Northwestern has Chip Kelly, who knows all of Ryan Day’s secrets, the Wildcats are also facing questions at quarterback. Aidan Chiles missed last week’s game because of injury, leaving Nicco Marchiol to take the snaps. Marchiol wasn’t awful, completing 24 of 32 passes for 181 yards and a score.

In a way, he was like Luke Fahey a couple of weeks ago in his first start. Marchiol wasn’t the reason why Northwestern lost, but he didn’t inspire a ton of confidence.

Right now Ohio State feels like they are at a crossroads. Either they can rally and state their case that they should be a playoff team, or they can let the season spiral out of control, and huge changes could be on the horizon.

Maybe Ryan Day will loosen things up with his team’s back against the wall. It’s obvious the team is frustrated right now. Just look at Jeremiah Smith in the second half last week if you need evidence.

It’s hard to blame Smith since he had a Heisman-worthy season going before the injury to Julian Sayin. Even if the Buckeyes don’t make the playoff, they still have a lot to play for over the next few weeks, since beating Michigan always brightens up a disappointing season.

Ohio State showed signs of turning things around in the first quarter last week. Now they just have to play like that for 60 minutes.

The Buckeyes turn things around on Saturday. The defense steps up while Fahey and Smith combine for a couple of touchdowns.

Ohio State 35, Northwestern 17

Michigan v. No. 16 Oregon (-11.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1

Any Ohio State fans needing a laugh after last week’s depressing loss to Oregon just had to turn on the Michigan game.

The Wolverines totaled just 192 yards in the 15-6 loss to Michigan State, leading to the firing of offensive coordinator Jason Beck. Michigan turned the football over four times in the loss, with quarterback Tommy Carr throwing two interceptions.

Oregon looks like they are finding their groove with Dylan Raiola at quarterback. The Ducks have rebounded from the loss to Illinois with wins over Northwestern and Ohio State to keep their slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff alive. Their defense did take a hit when linebacker Teitum Tuioti was ruled out for the rest of the season after suffering an injury last week.

The firing of Beck isn’t going to instantly turn the offense of the Wolverines around. Even though Michigan has a solid defense, the group can only hold up for so long before they finally break.

The breaking point could come a little sooner this week against a confident offense out west.

Oregon 27, Michigan 10

No. 18 USC v. No. 9 Indiana (-7.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS

The last time we saw Indiana, Josh Hoover was getting pummeled by Minnesota, leading to backup Grant Wilson stepping in to finish the game.

The Hoosiers needed a 60-yard field goal to force overtime against the Golden Gophers before earning the victory in overtime.

The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Indiana, giving Hoover extra time to heal up before the final three games of the regular season, along with a possible appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game for a second straight season.

While the offense of the Hoosiers has been inconsistent, their defense has been great, allowing less than 20 points in each of the last five games.

USC is also coming off a bye week. The Trojans are probably wishing they could have played last week, so they wouldn’t have a chance to cool off after their win against Ohio State. The victory over the Buckeyes is not only Lincoln Riley’s signature win as USC head coach, but it has also quieted talk of this possibly being Riley’s last season with the program.

The good vibes for the Trojans won’t last very long. USC might have been able to bully a soft Ohio State team; they won’t be able to go to Bloomington and do the same to Curt Cignetti’s team.

With the physical football Indiana plays, I could see USC folding and losing by double digits.

Indiana 31, USC 21

Rapid Fire Picks

National

Duke v. No. 7 Miami (FL) (-13.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC

Miami (FL) 34, Duke 27

No. 13 Wake Forest v. SMU (-1.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

SMU 35, Wake Forest 31

No. 8 Tennessee (-2.5) v. Texas A&M – 3:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Tennessee 23, Texas A&M 13

Baylor v. No. 10 BYU (-7.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX

BYU 34, Baylor 23

No. 19 Ole Miss (-1.5) v. Oklahoma – 4:15 p.m. ET – SEC Network

Oklahoma 27, Ole Miss 24

Florida v. No. 11 Kentucky (-3.5) – 6:15 p.m. ET – ESPN

Kentucky 28, Florida 17

No. 12 Texas Tech v. No. 25 Oklahoma State (-3.5) – 9:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma State 38

B1G

Illinois v. No. 4 UCLA (-9.5) – Friday 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX

UCLA 27, Illinois 20

Wisconsin (-7.5) v. Maryland – 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1

Wisconsin 24, Maryland 14

Nebraska (-13.5) v. Rutgers – 12:30 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network

Nebraska 31, Rutgers 21

Washington (-3.5) v. Michigan State – 4:15 p.m. ET – Big Ten Network

Michigan State 23, Washington 20

Minnesota v. Penn State (-9.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1

Penn State 21, Minnesota 17

Purdue v. No. 15 Iowa (-17.5) – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC

Iowa 30, Purdue 7