Quick thoughts on UNC’s football season so far after the crushing OT loss to Syracuse

Well, that sucked.

UNC’s loss to a big underdog at home was deflating, the sort of loss common to the Mack 2.0 era. The hire of Bill Belichick was supposed to make these sorts of slip-ups a thing of the past. UNC fans had this one penciled as a W since the pre-season, and Syracuse’s struggles with QB injuries only solidified the expectation. However, as we noted in last week’s Three Things to Watch column…

“College football teams also have to learn how to handle success. Saban called it “rat poison.” Psychologists call it “relief syndrome.” UNC just experienced a highly emotional win over Duke. Throw in that Miami game looming after Syracuse. Add an eight point spread in UNC’s favor (as of press time). Can we call this Syracuse game a potential let-down game? College football loves to trip up teams that relax a little after an emotional win while also looking ahead to a spotlight game. This game fits the definition for UNC.

Finally, Syracuse sits in last place in the ACC, 0-4 in the conference. That makes the Orange a dangerous team. Teams backed into a corner either quit or up their fight, and Syracuse to date has shown no sign of quit. In their last two games, they lost by only three to Virginia in Charlottesville and trailed Louisville by five points heading into the fourth quarter. Syracuse is still competing and has some weapons.“

Indeed, Syracuse came into the game-planning to go for it on fourth down every chance they got, and they did so, winning four of those seven attempts. That aggression won the game. Steve Angeli, who looked lost against Cal and Pitt before being benched while throwing five interceptions, had by far his best game of the season. Worse, Syracuse rushed for almost two hundred yards.

What to expect from Miami

Miami’s offense will be dramatically more dangerous than Syracuse’s. UNC’s defense has faced the following number of snaps in the last four weeks: 74, 85, 71, and 83. On the season, UNC ranks 109th in the number of plays its defense had to defend. It gets there by being unable to get off the field: UNC’s defense ranks 105th in third downs faced and 115th in third down conversions allowed.

Miami will be happy to grind UNC’s front seven into the ground in the run game. Given the cushion UNC’s DBs concede to opponents, QB Darian Mensah likely gets the ball to Malachi Toney and their other dangerous receivers around the line of scrimmage for efficient gains with the chance someone misses a tackle and lets them loose for an explosive play.

UNC surprisingly hung with Notre Dame in the first half, and then a well-designed kickoff return to open the second half had UNC neck-and-neck with the Fighting Irish. Can UNC hang around Miami, who may be looking ahead to their game against Notre Dame next week? Wake Forest’s defense held Miami to 75 yards in the second half of that game to make it interesting, so it can be done.

Where UNC ranks in the ACC according to SP+

What the efficiency metrics have to say

This is the point in the season where preseason weighting has diminished or disappeared entirely (depending on the metric), making the ratings much more a product of actual game results. Reminder: none of these are “resume” rankings. Head to head doesn’t matter. These metrics are looking at other factors, not to replace wins and losses or head-to-head, but to bring more perspective to the table than just those two criteria.

• SP+ is designed to be a predictive measure of how a team will perform from that point forward, based mainly on prior play by play results.
• FEI is a descriptive measure emphasizing possession data over play data.
• FPI seems a blend of the two, although ESPN is the least forthcoming on their methodology.

This week:
Overall: 51.3 (-2). FEI: 55 (-2) / FPI: 41 (-2) / SP+ 58 (-4)
Offense: 56.7 (+4). (-5.4) FEI: 53 (+10) / FPI: 42 (+2) / SP+ 75 (-)
Defense: 46.7 (-7). FEI: 54 (-7) / FPI: 44 (-7) / SP+ 42 (-7)
Special Teams: 53 (-5) FEI: 31 (-2) / FPI: 31 (-3) / SP+ 97 (-9)

Bottom line: improvement from last season has been significant – which brings UNC up to “average football team.” With Miami and Louisville looming, UNC has a chance to move from “average” to “above average” in its final five games.

You can see the “overall” season-to-date progressions for any team here. UNC has moved up considerably in FEI relative to preseason projections, but right now FPI and SP+ have UNC about where the Tar Heels started in their rankings.

How past and future opponents fared last weekend

Note: Blend is the team’s current ranking average in the three major CFB metrics (SP+, FEI, and FPI) out of 138 teams.

TCU (3-4). Blend 42 (-3): We won.

TCU lost to West Virginia 24-20, largely on the back of three Jaden Craig turnovers. That leaves TCU with one FBS win on the season over Baylor, who just fired their coach.

ETSU (6-2). Blend N/A: We won

The Bucs walloped VMI 38-0. Massey FCS Ratings has ETSU sitting at #21 this week.

Clemson (4-3). Blend 53 (-2): We lost.

Clemson fell to Virginia Tech 20-16, and now Dabo starts to field some very uncomfortable questions about his QB situation and offense. Overall, the Clemson offense ranks around where UNC’s offense ended last season. If you’ve only watched Clemson average nine yards per play against UNC in the second half of that game, that must come as a shock to you.

Notre Dame (5-1). Blend 2 (-): We lost

Notre Dame had a bye, watching the team that just beat them lose to UCF in OT.

Pittsburgh: (5-3). Blend 41 (-4): We won

Miami obliterated the Panthers 53-23, jumping out to a 38-7 lead before sending in the scrubs. Pittsburgh’s rating has fallen 20 spots since losing starting QB Mason Heintschel, losing three in a row.

Duke (5-2). Blend 47 (+1): We won.

Duke bested a beat-up Virginia team, whose injury report ran longer than a CVS receipt, 19-16. All-ACC RB Nate Sheppard threw a touchdown pass.

Syracuse (3-4). Blend 76 (+2): We lost.

Can someone please explain the defensive concept where we rush seven, but the DB lines up nine yards back and five yards inside of his cover assignment? And then retreats an additional nine yards after the snap?

Miami (7-0). Blend 4 (-): Boat raced Pitt out of the gate and then played with their food in the second half. Still an L.

Connecticut (4-3). Blend 84 (+3): Beat UMass 35-16. For more reasons than one now, better be a W.

Louisville (4-3). Blend 25 (-1): On a bye. Still an L.

Virginia (4-4). Blend 54 (-2): Lost to Duke 19-16, leaving head coach Tony Elliott in a similar situation to Dabo Sweeney, taking heat over the play of his QB and offense in general. This game probably still comes down to who’s healthiest, because Virginia’s availability report this week features 17 players out, two doubtful, and four more questionable. Still a Toss Up.

NC State (3-4). Blend 74 (-5): The Wolfpack lost 31-28 to Stanford, who in turn lost to Notre Dame and Wake Forest by a combined score of 115-10. Dave Doeren got fired. Does State now get the interim head coach dead-cat bounce to finish the season? For the moment, moving this one back to Toss Up.

At the moment, that projects to five wins, five losses, and two toss-ups. The season ends somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5, with 6-6 being the most likely result. Some (including me) considered 6-6 the worst possible result, an “improvement” that earns Belichick an extension but excites no one heading into 2027. Without some momentum heading into the off-season, raising funds and recruiting become much more difficult.