Week 10 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Miami-Notre Dame and Saturday's other big games

Tuesday's decision was pleasantly surprising.

You don't have to agree with the College Football Playoff Committee's decision to shake up how they rank teams, but you have to respect moving away from copy-and-pasting a virtual national standings and putting some deeper thought into a first draft.

All of this is just a prelude to the biggest Saturday of the season, where a game like Oregon-Ohio State — once a possible headliner — may only matter on a national level to the Buckeyes, whose second loss came last Saturday. That modest upset is just one shake-up to the landscape that triggered more moves in the betting market than the casual shoulder shrug that oddsmakers gave to the first CFP ranking of the season.

Movers

In Week 9, Ohio State's loss to USC further complicated things in the Heisman Trophy betting market, as we got our first look at "life after Julian Sayin" at quarterback for the Buckeyes, and what impact that could have on Jeremiah Smith's candidacy, as he fell out of the top spot of odds board at +300. He's replaced by Darian Mensah, whose own Heisman resume hinges on whether he can lead Miami to a victory this week over Notre Dame.

Not getting knocked off by Minnesota, as 20-point favorites, is enough to provide Indiana with a move up the odds board in the Big Ten, and a surprisingly high CFP ranking. The Hoosiers have never looked sketchier under Curt Cignetti, but they're +130 to win the Big Ten, after starting the season at +300.

Texas Tech beat Arizona to linger just behind Utah and BYU in the Big 12 standings ahead of "The Holy War."

In the Group-of-Six, Louisiana Tech helped us to another 2-2 split, virtually clinching a spot in the Sun Belt Championship, while Georgia Southern set up its path to meet the Bulldogs there, in what would be back-to-back matchups. All because of another big mid-week money-line upset.

Shakers

James Madison lost again. A week after losing to App State, the Dukes were the victim of the biggest upset of the week, as 17-point underdog Troy topped JMU in overtime.

The second-biggest upset came in the Big 12, as Iowa State edged Oklahoma State, leaving the conference down to three legit contenders.

The Big Ten would be even more hairy, if not for a sentence that we never thought would have nouns in the correct place; "The playoff hopes for Northwestern were shattered by Oregon."

Miami and Notre Dame avoided upsets to keep the vibes high for Week 10, where a half-dozen games feature clashes between 12 of the top 18 in the College Football Playoff rankings — a betting outlook we broke down from a value perspective before Tuesday night's release.

Betting the big games for Week 10

This is the space for the big games of the week. While we'll never get a true sample size in a sport that comes down to a bounce or two and the micro-assessment of replay reviews, the season's started to take shape. That said, there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 10.

No. 9 BYU at No. 3 Utah (-5.5, 47.5)

The location changes from last year, but the profile of each side isn't much different from a game where BYU won by three, because Utah had two turnovers to the Cougars' zero.

There's nothing guaranteeing the same thing happens going from Provo to Salt Lake City, but Utah QB Devon Dampier has been slightly more likely to turn it over than his counterpart Bear Bachmeier.

So, why has this line drifted up towards a touchdown?

At home, Utah's metrics appear better than BYU's, as the Utes' explosiveness early in the season is doing some heavy lifting on that side of the ball, and the Utah defense has shut down Houston and created two touchdowns in the first half at Cincinnati last week.

In the end, BYU has been more battle-tested with the win over Notre Dame, walking into a tough spot at UCF and grinding out wins over Arizona and at TCU.

The early kickoff should keep the home-field advantage down, and we're in for a slugfest, so taking the points is the way to go. Especially, if somehow LJ Martin returns for BYU.

Bet: BYU +5.5

No. 7 Texas (-2.5, 42.5) at No. 18 Missouri

The Longhorns' three best results this season have included three bad "halves."

• Ohio State (at home): Down 20-3 at halftime
• Tennessee (on the road): Only 66 total yards in second and third quarters
• Ole Miss (at home): Three straight touchdowns allowed in the second half

The final scores have earned Texas its place in the CFP rankings (7th), but it's a disturbing trend for future games on the road against quality teams.

Had the Volunteers had any capability on offense — at a time before they went from Faizon Brandon to George MacIntyre — they likely would have taken a lead on the Longhorns, and put Arch Manning in a precarious position for a comeback.

Bet Missouri to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

With Austin Simmons at quarterback, the excitement around the return of Ahmad Hardy and Missouri's defense carrying metrics akin to Alabama and Georgia, beating the Tigers will require the 'Horns to be on point for all 60 minutes — and we haven't seen that Texas is capable of doing that.

Bet: Missouri +2.5

No. 5 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (-5.5, 52.5)

Before the season, the lookahead line for one of college football's most reliably competitive rivalries was LSU -4, stemming from a level of interest and expectation over Lane Kiffin's arrival rarely matched in the sport's long offseason. Meanwhile, Alabama was pushed aside in two of their final three games last season, by Georgia and Indiana, and there couldn't have been less buzz in support of Kalen DeBoer.

Both teams have taken a pair of losses, making this something of a playoff game (though LSU has more resume-building opportunities left on its schedule), and a pair of wins over Mississippi State and Auburn have cranked the hype back up for LSU.

The Tigers' advanced metrics have shot up the ladder, but both of those wins are becoming less impressive by the week. At the time, everyone at least wondered if the Bulldogs could be OK without Kamario Taylor (they are not), and Auburn had just beat Georgia (a game with single-digit postgame win expectancy that's becoming more and more like a fluke after another blowout loss for Auburn against Ole Miss last week).

This line is higher than the peak of the LSU hype because the Tigers are suddenly perceived to be better than advertised, while Alabama's loss at Tennessee may prove to be more understandable than LSU's loss at Kentucky. The Tide should have been awarded a goal-line opportunity to take the lead late over Georgia when a clear pass interference went uncalled.

Without much difference between these two rivals, and the avoidance of a night game in Baton Rouge, LSU -4 is as high as I could envision this line.

Bet: Alabama +5.5

No. 6 Kentucky at No. 13 Tennessee (-6.5, 50.5)

By the advanced metrics on standard downs, Kentucky is right alongside Alabama for the best offensive efficiency in the SEC.

Here's what the Crimson Tide's offense was able to do at Tennessee three weeks ago:

• 201 total yards
• 12 first downs
• 2-of-13 on third down
• 2.1 yards per carry
• Four turnovers

At 3-0 on the road in the SEC, maybe the Wildcats are the road warriors of the 2026 season, but let's look a little deeper.

Kentucky's win at Texas A&M, at the time, was an upset of the No. 9-ranked team in the country. The Aggies are now 1-4 in the conference.

The Wildcats won in overtime at South Carolina despite allowing 6.3 yards per carry, because of two Gamecock fumbles and two fourth-down conversions in a comeback win.

The Wildcats managed just 230 total yards, rushing for 2.8 yards per carry at Oklahoma (2-3), winning because they picked off John Mateer four times.

Kentucky comes in off the bye, having entered it riding a surprising six-game winning streak, while the Vols have been sitting on a last-second loss at South Carolina for two weeks, preparing for a team they expect to dominate.

If MacIntyre can take care of the football, the Vols' defense and running game with DeSean Bishop, fresh off a week of rest, should allow Tennessee to win by more than one possession.

Bet: Tennessee -6.5

No. 2 Georgia (-3.5, 56.5) at No. 10 Ole Miss

While we can't guarantee that Georgia would have subsequently lost at home to Auburn, the Bulldogs could be that non-call in a Tuscaloosa end zone from possibly being a two-loss team without much on their resume. Beating Bama will stick on Georgia's resume, and it will also keep their market rating high, just as dominating Florida in Atlanta last week has.

The Bulldogs came into the season expected to be better than Ole Miss, have the better metrics and their market power rating has been restored after the hiccup against Auburn. However, while it's a small sample, Georgia has struggled against what the Rebels do on offense, losing 28-10 in 2024, and then allowing 35 points in a home win before losing 39-34 in the CFP last season.

It took too long for Trinidad Chambliss and Co. to get it going in their last big game (at Texas), but at home they should be ready to go against a scary team they've had success against in the past.

Bet: Ole Miss +3.5

No. 1 Miami at No. 11 Notre Dame (-5.5, 57.5)

The betting market will tell you what it thinks of the "No. 1 team in the country."

In the summer, we made a point to grab Notre Dame at -5.5 in the "Game of the Year" lookahead market, thinking the betting market might be wild about the Irish if they beat BYU on the road and were undefeated, combined with the possibility of Miami surprisingly dropping a game in the lead-up.

While close — Notre Dame was a play away from beating BYU and Miami almost lost to both Florida State and North Carolina — neither of those things have happened, and the betting market has still pushed Notre Dame up from an open of -3.5 to -5.5 and even higher.

On the field, the same issue that we referenced in August remains — a Miami defense that isn't remotely close to the unit that often led the Hurricanes on their road to last season's national title game.

Let's take a look at starting quarterbacks they've faced this season:

• Gio Lopez (Wake Forest): 312 yards, 3 TD
• Tait Reynolds (Clemson): 295 yards
• Ashton Daniels (Florida State): 298 yards, 4 TD
• Billy Edwards Jr. (North Carolina): 341 yards, 4 TD

None of those names has had a better statistical game all season, which suggests CJ Carr could have his best output (if that's even necessary) depending on how well the Notre Dame defense — best defense Miami has faced this season — does in guarding WR Kadarius Toney.

Bet: Notre Dame -5.5

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.