What games will decide CFP field? These 11 in November loom largest

If you were surprised by the plot twists in the debut College Football Playoff rankings — such as two-loss Alabama cracking the top five or Ohio State and Notre Dame being outside the top 10 — just wait until the update on Tuesday night.

Headlined by five games between ranked teams with two or fewer losses, Saturday’s Week 10 schedule late may be the most impactful of November. The biggest matchup of the week, between Miami and Notre Dame, could lead to changes at the top of the playoff rankings and the US LBM Coaches Poll.

But the final month of the regular season is loaded with games that will determine which teams finish with two or three losses and which advance into Power Four conference championship games.

When the dust clears in late November, these are the games that will bring the playoff race into focus and dictate who makes up the 12-team field:

No. 8 BYU at No. 4 Utah, Saturday

The Holy War will set the tone for the home stretch in the Big 12. BYU has a huge win against Notre Dame but has struggled in conference play, including a bad loss to Central Florida. Winning in Salt Lake City would boost the Cougars’ playoff credentials and open up the possibility of an at-large berth. Utah has climbed to the top of the standings and would essentially secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game with a win.

No. 9 Alabama at No. 15 LSU, Saturday

After landing at No. 5 in the debut rankings, Saturday no longer looks like an elimination game for the Crimson Tide. After this, Alabama caps the regular season with Vanderbilt, Chattanooga and Auburn. The same can’t be said for LSU, which lacks quality wins and might be ejected from the playoff race with a loss, especially with some difficult games ahead.

No. 1 Miami at No. 6 Notre Dame, Saturday

The stakes are obscenely high for the Fighting Irish, who would not be able to survive a second loss after coming in as a surprising No. 11 in the playoff rankings. Miami has more than enough room to lose on Saturday and still be in good shape, especially since the committee might soften that result by citing the injury to star wide receiver Malachi Toney.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 12 Ole Miss, Saturday

Georgia still has Ole Miss, No. 19 Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs are a playoff lock with two losses and would have a stronger argument than Alabama as a three-loss contender. With Oklahoma, Wofford and Mississippi State coming next, an upset would make the Rebels one of the safest bets to earn an at-large spot.

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 16 Tennessee, Saturday

Kentucky has two wins against teams in the playoff rankings in LSU and South Carolina. A blowout loss to Alabama in September has been erased by its current six-game winning streak. Winning in Knoxville would deliver another huge boost to the Wildcats’ playoff case while putting Tennessee’s odds on life support.

No. 11 Texas at No. 15 LSU, Nov. 14

To a slightly lesser degree than Alabama, Texas could earn a split against Missouri this and LSU the following Saturday and still have a playoff résumé thanks to wins against Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss and one of the two Tigers.

No. 17 USC at No. 3 Indiana, Nov. 14

USC has climbed back from the brink of playoff elimination after an impressive performance against Ohio State. The Trojans will need to win out, though, and doing so will entail road wins against two of the best teams in the Big Ten. Indiana has stayed near the top of the rankings after churning out a series of narrow wins, including in overtime last weekend against Minnesota. But the Hoosiers can lose once and still make the playoff with room to spare.

No. 14 Wake Forest at SMU, Nov. 14

This is the one high-profile ACC matchup with playoff implications. Based on the first rankings, this will be a one-bid league unless Wake can thread the needle by ending November with one loss and giving Miami a test in the ACC championship game. (Or by winning that game, of course.) SMU might’ve been in the same boat if not for a horrible loss last Saturday against Syracuse.

Nebraska at No. 20 Iowa, Nov. 27

While their strength of schedule won’t be great, the Hawkeyes could head into Black Friday with wins against bowl-eligible teams Iowa State, Michigan, Washington, Northwestern and Illinois. Yet another win against the Cornhuskers could make Iowa an interesting case heading into the final playoff rankings: Would the committee put the two-loss Hawkeyes over a three-loss SEC with a much stronger collection of wins?

No. 17 USC at No. 5 UCLA, Nov. 28

A win in Bloomington two weeks earlier would leave USC in position to punch a playoff ticket by knocking off the rival Bruins. Should the Trojans beat UCLA, there’s almost no doubt a two-loss team that has wins against Ohio State, Indiana and the Bruins would have the résumé for an at-large berth. Even with a weak schedule, the Bruins will be in good shape heading finale as long as they take two of three against Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan.

Michigan at No. 10 Ohio State, Nov. 28

Ohio State takes on Oregon, Northwestern and Nebraska before hosting the Wolverines. Whether the Buckeyes can avoid a third loss heading into this matchup is one of the biggest questions of the final month. If so, OSU would be playing for a spot in the Big Ten championship game and would be able to secure at least an at-large berth with a win.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What games will decide CFP field? These 11 in November loom largest