What Will the First 2026 College Football Playoff Rankings Look Like?

The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings will be released Tuesday, November 3rd, and we still have a weekend of games before we know what all the records are. But let’s get there faster with what the first top 25 will likely be on a night when the planet will be slightly preoccupied with other polls and voting results.
Along with our projection of what each team’s record will be after this coming weekend, here’s our call on how the committee will rank its top 25.

Projecting the First 2026 College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings

25. New Mexico

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: at San Jose State
The committee will like the win over North Dakota State and respect the 14-6 loss at Oklahoma. At the very least, the Lobos will be on the fringe of the top 25 with a shot to be front-and-center as the Group of Six champion representative if everything goes right.

24. Florida

Projected Record: 5-3
Up Next: Georgia (in Atlanta)
This obviously changes if the Gators beat Georgia, but they should still sneak into the top 25 with a reasonably close loss, thanks to wins over Ole Miss and Texas on the road, and at home against Auburn.

23. Boise State

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Texas State
One of the more interesting early calls for the committee, yeah, Boise State is 7-1 with the one loss to Oregon, but for a program that hasn’t won a game over a Power Four program since 2019, that only goes so far. Beating Memphis and Western Michigan, though, will matter.

22. Northwestern

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: at Oregon
Does Northwestern beat Oregon? It’s certainly not a definite loss like it appeared to be before the season, but for now, let’s sheepishly predict a close Duck win. The problem then becomes the lack of great wins – that includes Penn State.

21. Cincinnati

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: Utah
This ranking is all about the call of a Cincinnati win over Utah this weekend to go along with the win over Texas Tech last Saturday. The loss to West Virginia is all that drags this ranking down.

20. Arizona

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: at Texas Tech
The Wildcats blew out Cincinnati 34-7, and all six wins so far are by double-digits. A loss at BYU and a projected loss at Texas Tech will get respect in the room, especially if Cincinnati beats Utah this week.

19. Iowa

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: Wisconsin
Expect the slide of two losses in the last three games to stop against Wisconsin this weekend, but the Hawkeyes are out of the top 25 – and the Badgers are in – with a loss.

18. Missouri

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: at Arkansas
Assuming a win at Arkansas, the Tigers get plenty of CFP cred for a 45-17 win over Florida, but the 31-3 loss to Ole Miss keeps them from being up any higher.

17. SMU

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: at Syracuse
Just how much will the committee record rank early in the process? SMU is just okay, and it doesn’t have any great wins – the one loss was to Louisville 41-31 – but … 7-1 in a Power Four conference.

16. Wake Forest

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Virginia
The committee doesn’t usually give enough love to great losses, and if the Demon Deacons beat Virginia, the only defeat will be against likely No. 1 Miami. There aren’t any great wins, but there are plenty of decent ones.

15. Utah

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: at Cincinnati
The Utes will be top five if they beat the Cincinnati team on the road that just whacked Texas Tech. The call at the moment is a Bearcat win, but the win over Houston last week will be enough to be in a decent overall position.

14. Texas Tech

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Arizona
The loss to Cincinnati wasn’t great, but the Red Raiders can make up for it with a home win over Arizona. If they pull that off, they should still slip into the top 15 thanks to the 35-24 road win over Oregon State and the win over Houston.

13. LSU

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: OPEN DATE
Welcome to the wild card in the top 15ish of the first round of the rankings. The loss to Kentucky was on the road in overtime, and the other loss was on the road early on at Ole Miss with the whole Lane Kiffin circus swirling. However, the Tigers throttled everyone else so far in dominant blowouts. With that said, the best win was at Auburn last week.

12. Ole Miss

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: Auburn
Beating Auburn next week is a must to be in the top 12, and after that comes the interesting call. How much does the committee love the win over LSU and the 31-3 blowout over Missouri? Is that enough to offset the 52-28 loss to Florida and the loss to Texas?

11. Alabama

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: OPEN DATE
May you be loved and forgiven for any of your mistakes like the College Football Playoff committee loves and forgives Bama. The 45-17 win over Kentucky in Week 2 stands out, and blowout wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State help. However, even the CFP can’t put the Tide in over …

10. Tennessee

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: OPEN DATE
The loss at South Carolina last week came at a bad time, but the 26-10 win over Alabama and the victory over Auburn should be enough to hover around the top 12 somewhere behind …

9. Texas

Projected Record: 6-2
Up Next: Mississippi State
This is where the committee will earn its room service bill. The two losses were both 27-24 to Florida and Oklahoma, but there’s a win over Ole Miss, a road victory over Tennessee, and it’s the only team to beat UTSA. Oh yeah, and it beat Ohio State.

8. Notre Dame

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Navy (in Foxborough)
Everyone in the room will like Notre Dame talent-wise, and there will be discussion about the controversial clock whiff at the end of the loss at BYU. But the Irish did lose to the Cougar team that got whacked by UCF last Saturday. The 41-13 win over Wisconsin now looks great, but it’s all about the Miami game coming up on November 7th.

7. BYU

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Arizona State
It’s not just the great win over Notre Dame. Beating Arizona 28-17 was important, and it could be even bigger if the Wildcats take down Texas Tech this weekend. The overtime loss to UCF will hurt in the first round of rankings, but it won’t be a big deal as long as the Cougars keep winning.

6. Kentucky

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: OPEN DATE
Yeah, the 45-17 loss to Alabama was ugly, but that will be a wee bit blown off considering the Wildcats won on the road at South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. The win over LSU, though, is what gets UK this high.

5. Indiana

Projected Record: 8-1
Up Next: Minnesota
Being the only team to beat Northwestern isn’t just everything; it’s the only thing. The room will respect the win at Michigan and will sort of like the 20-17 win over Nebraska, but that’s about it unless the team gets respect for coming this close to beating Ohio State. (Again, the committee almost never gives enough credit for good, tough losses.)

4. UCLA

Projected Record: 8-0
Up Next: Nevada
In the first week of November, Power Four 8-0 don’t care where 8-0 came from. The 17-7 win over Wisconsin will get the most credit, and beating Oregon in Eugene matters. But this is all about that zero in the right-hand column. If it were that easy – UCLA will beat Nevada – there would be more than two unbeaten P4 squads.

3. Georgia

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: Florida (in Atlanta)
A win over Florida is all that’s keeping the first round of the College Football Playoff rankings from being without an SEC team in at least the top five. It can’t be stressed enough – the CFP committee LOVES anyone who can beat Alabama, and that win in Tuscaloosa and, if it happens, a victory over the Gators will give the Dawgs more credit than UCLA being 8-0 … because it’s Alabama.

2. Ohio State

Projected Record: 7-1
Up Next: at USC
The loss to Texas hurts, but that was a missed field goal away from being a Buckeye win – and yes, the OSU defense did collapse. But it’s the only team to win in Bloomington since Curt Cignetti took over as the head coach. It also walloped Iowa 31-14 in Iowa City, and this also assumes a win at USC is coming on Saturday.

1. Miami

Projected Record: 8-0
Up Next: at North Carolina
First, don’t just assume that the Canes won’t blow it at North Carolina this week. Also, yeah, being the only team to beat Wake Forest matters, and there’s some cachet to rocking Clemson 41-13 in Death Valley, but …
There’s almost nothing there that screams No. 1, at least compared to likely fellow 8-0 UCLA. For now, though, the CFP committee will fall for the shiny object to set up an epic showdown at Notre Dame in a few weeks.