10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 10

Yeah, the whole point of this piece is to give you what I literally think are the ten best college football picks against the spread, with a few point totals thrown in there if they appear to be egregiously off. We have a few laughs, kill some time, and then we move on.
This week is different.
Like a proper DJ set, you want to start big, build with a few ebbs and flows, and then when it’s just the right time … BAM. Drop the big ones after taking the crowd on a journey. This week? Nope. It’s all bangers from start to finish, all the time, no rest.
Now let’s have some fun.
Results So Far: 61-44
– Week 10 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Week 10 Expert Picks
Now, before we get going, I’d be remiss if I didn’t keep the bit going – the Double-Digit Home Dog.
I think we’re done with this now – this is the time of year when everyone refocuses. However, I went 4-1 last week with these, and after Toledo (-25.5) beat Sacramento State on Wednesday night, and Ohio (-12.5) slipped by Akron 28-20, the DDHDs keep on destroying – even if James Madison blew apart Southern Miss on Thursday.
So, from the department of Just Sayin’ … Colorado State +17.5 vs Boise State, Georgia Tech +14.5 vs Louisville, New Mexico State +17.5 vs Liberty. Keep an eye on those three.

10. Nebraska at Illinois

Line: Point Total 50.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
I know … I KNOW. I promised you nothing but College Football Playoff-level picks, but 1) I have a bizarre love for this that doesn’t make any sense – like the CFP committee has for Alabama – and 2) it’s a Friday game, so I wanted to get it out of the way fast.
I’ve seen every game these two have played this season, and I can’t get over just how hard these two have to work to score points.
Three of the last four Illinois games weren’t even close to getting to 51, and one of them was against Maryland. (And the outlier was a strange game against Michigan State when the Illini defense left the building early.)
Nebraska hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since the first weekend of October, and five of its last six games haven’t come anywhere near 51 combined points.
(And, FIIIIIINE, if you want to get technical with me and you want all ten picks to be about College Football Playoff teams, I sort of like Cincinnati covering at Houston -10.5.)

9. Oklahoma at Florida

Line: Florida -6.5
ATS Pick: Oklahoma
– Game Preview and Prediction COMING
You are a serious, sincere person looking for serious, sincere analysis. And because of that, I ask that you move on to the next pick, because what I’m about to tell you has no basis whatsoever in anything but stupid trend logic. However, if I don’t adhere to my strict Never, Ever, EVER Screw With A Streak policy, I’ll be furious if form holds and I don’t do this. There, you’ve been warned.
Oklahoma is on an insane win-loss-win-loss streak, and it goes back to last year.
The Sooners closed 2025 with a win over LSU, followed by a loss to Alabama. Over the first eight games of this year, win UTEP, loss at Michigan, win New Mexico, loss at Georgia, win Texas, loss Kentucky, win at Mississippi State, loss at South Carolina.
I’m aware that there’s nothing supernatural about this. For the most part, Oklahoma lost to better teams and beat the teams they’re supposed to. But the Sooners can slow down the run – even if they didn’t do it last week against South Carolina. Keep CFP No. 24 Florida from running, and you win.
Okay, I’ll go faster.

8. Texas at Missouri

Line: Point Total 42.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction COMING
If you’re pressing me for an actual ATS pick on this – I really am torn and don’t love it, though – Texas -2.5.
CFP No. 18 Missouri has been ultra-flaky this year when it comes to combined points in games, but CFP No. 7 Texas has been rock-steady. The Longhorns have scored 24 points or more in every game but the 20-17 win over Tennessee, and it was on a run of easily blowing past 43 total points in three straight games before getting a crashed Mississippi State team. At home, Mizzou will hang at least 20 on the board.

7. BYU at Utah

Line: Utah -4.5
ATS Pick: Utah
– Game Preview and Prediction
CFP No. 3 Utah has all of the pressure in the world on its shoulders. CFP No. 9 BYU has the win over Notre Dame to carry the résumé if it finishes 10-2.
BYU star running back LJ Martin will probably play, but Utah is doing too good a job controlling the clock with its ground game, and the defense will carry the performance against Cincinnati over to this.
BYU has won three in a row in the series, but that was under Kyle Whittingham. Under Morgan Scalley, the program has been building all year for its shot to take down the Cougars.

6. Miami at Notre Dame

Line: Notre Dame -7.5
ATS Pick: Miami
– Game Preview and Prediction
I will openly admit to being torn. On the one hand, Miami is ridiculously overrated as everyone’s no-question No. 1. It was too shaky against Florida State and North Carolina, and it’s been all nice and flashy against a whole slew of meh, other than its win over Wake Forest.
On the other hand, it’s way past time for CFP No. 11 Notre Dame to actually prove it deserves all the love, hype, and WHINING over a relative gift of a first CFP ranking. If the Irish were really that good, they would’ve beaten BYU.
Notre Dame wins – I do think this team is national-title-good, and the chances are better that the Irish kick the holy stuffing out of the Canes in a cathartic blowout, more than I see an outright Miami win – but after getting down big, Miami throws its way back to make it cosmetically close.

5. TCU at Arizona

Line: Point Total 46.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
CFP No. 22 Arizona’s defense has been fantastic at home, beating Cincinnati 34-7 back in early October and winning 39-3 over Iowa State a few weeks ago. TCU’s offense really, really, really, really doesn’t score anywhere, including Ireland.
All seven TCU games against FBS teams this year flew miles under 47 total points, with the closest call a 24-20 loss to West Virginia. Speaking of which …

4. West Virginia at Texas Tech

Line: Point Total 65.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction COMING
You’re exhausted. You started your day with CFP No. 8 UCLA at Minnesota (I have absolutely no read on that one yet), rolled on through game after game in one of the most important early November Saturdays in years, and it’s still not enough. You need more, and that’s what the 9:30 pm showdown of West Virginia at No. 15 Texas Tech is for.
The Mountaineers have had two weeks off to rest up, Texas Tech has found its groove again, and these two will come out of the gate rolling and won’t stop until the wee hours of the morning. (Texas Tech will take care of at least 45 on its own.)

3. Kentucky at Tennessee

Line: Tennessee -6.5
ATS Pick: Tennessee
– Game Preview and Prediction COMING
I keep watching CFP No. 6 Kentucky, and it just doesn’t make any sense.
This team is awful at moving the chains on third downs, even worse at stopping teams on their third down chances, and yet it’s been insanely amazing at hanging around – this team does not screw up – and then finding ways to win.
One key thing to remember. The 35-34 wins over South Carolina and LSU were fantastic, but those were insanely close to swinging the other way. Beating Oklahoma was nice, but UK has fattened up on a lot of blah.
Kentucky’s timing and rhythm will be thrown off by CFP No. 13 Tennessee’s pass rush – the best in the nation. The Vols will be great after sitting for two weeks on the loss at South Carolina.

2. Alabama at LSU

Line: LSU -5.5
ATS Pick: LSU
– Game Preview and Prediction
The Ole Miss game for CFP No. 14 LSU was what it was – a good, frothing-at-the-mouth Rebel team poured out every ounce of its soul into beating Lane Kiffin. (And it showed, missing any of the same spark in a 52-28 loss to Florida a week later.)
The LSU loss at Kentucky was even weirder. The team played like it was going in slow motion, and it still almost won. But the dates with Ole Miss and LSU were on the road.
CFP No. 5 Alabama lost to Georgia, lost at Tennessee, and was fine in a 31-20 win over Texas A&M, but ehhhhhhh. It will absolutely have its moments on offense, but there won’t be enough of them. Here’s what I can’t shake …
The five LSU home games.
– LSU 51, Clemson 10
– LSU 45, Louisiana Tech (who might win the Sun Belt, BTW) 14
– LSU 35, Texas A&M 6
– LSU 63, McNeese State 14
– LSU 31, Mississippi State 0
Okay, fine. All five of those teams have issues in various forms, and none of them are Alabama. But LSU will take its game up a few notches at home by dominating the clock and capitalizing on three takeaways.

1. Oregon at Ohio State

Line: Ohio State -7.5
ATS Pick: Ohio State
– Game Preview and Prediction
The last two times we saw CFP No. 12 Ohio State, it came within a Nick Marsh foot placement of losing to Indiana, and last week, it was weirdly blah in a loss to USC.
How bad was it? Rutgers, Washington, and Penn State came closer to beating USC than Ohio State did. Fortunately, it’s playing an Oregon team that doesn’t seem to do well when its rhythm is off.
The Ducks didn’t wake up until it was too late in a 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State. The game started at 9:00 am Pacific Time. The 21-10 loss at Illinois started at 12:00 p.m. Pacific Time.
Ohio State quarterback Luke Fahey got his feet wet against the Trojans. Now, watch him swim as the Buckeye offense plays much better.
By the way, the game starts at 1:30 p.m. in Duck time.
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.