A (Semi) Statistical Recap of Baylor

Apparently there was a basketball game yesterday. An exhibition game between Kansas and Duke in Allen Fieldhouse. So, to all six people who are going to read this — thank you for being here.

Also apparently, the secret to Kansas winning a close football game is for me to not watch it. You’re welcome! Because it’s true that I wasn’t able to watch Saturday’s game against Baylor, which of course means Kansas immediately went out and won its first Big 12 game of the season, 25-24, on a blocked field goal with 22 seconds remaining.

Naturally.

I did catch up with the highlights, box score, and postgame coverage afterward. And even knowing the final score, there were several moments when I found myself wondering how Kansas managed to win this thing.

The Jayhawks failed on fourth down with less than five minutes remaining. They failed on a two-point conversion after taking the lead with 1:13 left. Baylor converted a first-and-20 on its final possession. And when the Bears lined up for a potential game-winning 45-yard field goal?

Oh, come on. We’ve seen this movie before. Many, many times.

Except this time, Blake Herold blocked the kick, Kansas won the football game, and Baylor’s 14-game winning streak against KU finally came to an end.

Streaks apparently CAN end! Who knew?

College football remains the stupidest sport in America.

The statistics make this game even more interesting. Kansas outgained Baylor 421-358, held a 36:41 to 23:19 advantage in time of possession, and ran 86 offensive plays to Baylor’s 66.

But KU averaged just 4.9 yards per play to Baylor’s 5.4. The Jayhawks converted only 5-of-19 third downs, threw two interceptions, and allowed five sacks. One of those interceptions was returned 42 yards for a touchdown on KU’s first offensive play of the second half. That is not generally a recipe for success.

So how did Kansas win?

Well, for one thing, the Jayhawks converted five of eight fourth-down attempts. Baylor, which entered the game having allowed opponents to convert just one of nine fourth downs all season, suddenly found itself unable to get Kansas off the field.

And Dylan Edwards had something to say about it, too.

Edwards carried the ball 30 times for 156 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt against a defense that had been allowing just 2.6 yards per rush. That’s impressive production against one of the better rushing defenses in the country. Kansas finished with 209 rushing yards, although five sacks and other negative plays helped drag the team’s average down to 3.7 per attempt.

Marshall, meanwhile, completed 17 of 29 passes for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. His afternoon was decidedly uneven, but he also engineered the six-play, 71-yard drive that gave Kansas the lead with 1:13 remaining, finishing it with a 15-yard touchdown run.

And then, Herold did the whole blocked field goal thing.

Because only three programs can beat Kansas 15 times in a row and get away with it, not four.

You hear me, Baylor? NOT FOUR!

Kansas improves to 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the Big 12. Bowl eligibility still requires three more wins in five games, but for the first time in a while, there’s at least a little reason to believe this season might not be completely lost.

It’s also worth mentioning that Baylor fired Dave Aranda on Sunday, less than 24 hours after Saturday’s loss to KU. Aranda is now a proud member of the club of coaches who lost their jobs after losing to Kansas. This club, known as the Lawrence Unemployment Society, was founded by Ron Prince in 2008. Full membership also includes Dan Hawkins (2010), Charlie Strong (2016), and now Dave Aranda. Bill Callahan, Guy Morriss, Dan McCarney, and Dennis Franchione are honorary members as well, later added by the veterans committee.

With Aranda’s induction, Baylor becomes the first school to earn two seats at the annual LUS conference.

The Good

Let’s talk about fourth downs.

Kansas went for it EIGHT times against Baylor.

Eight!

What?

Yeah, eight!

The Jayhawks converted five of them, including a 34-yard touchdown pass from Marshall to Nik McMillan on fourth-and-three to open the fourth quarter. That score cut Baylor’s lead to 21-16 and started the comeback.

For comparison, Baylor had allowed just one fourth-down conversion in nine attempts through its first six games. Kansas converted five in one afternoon. That’s quite a change.

And here’s where things get interesting. Lance Leipold acknowledged after the game that KU’s punting problems contributed to the unusually aggressive approach. Kansas hasn’t been reliably flipping field position, and rather than risk handing Baylor the ball with favorable field position anyway, Leipold decided to keep the offense on the field.

David Beaty’s mind is being blown as we speak.

Leipold also cited confidence in the defense and a desire to limit possessions for Baylor’s up-tempo offense. Eight attempts were the most fourth downs Leipold has gone for in a game during his Kansas tenure. His previous high was five.

The most memorable conversion came on that McMillan touchdown. Kansas lined up in… well, let’s say a non-traditional formation, where most of the offensive line was positioned off to one side, with Carson Bruhn snapping the ball to Marshall from a rather unconventional alignment. Marshall rolled out and found McMillan downfield for the touchdown. That’s the kind of creativity that makes college football fun, particularly when it actually works.

Now, it’s worth noting that Kansas wasn’t especially successful on third down. The Jayhawks converted only 5-19 (26.3%) of those opportunities, which ordinarily would be a major problem.

But instead of repeatedly surrendering possession, Leipold gave the offense another chance.

And another.

And another.

Some of those decisions failed. One resulted in an interception. But enough worked to keep Kansas on the field, sustain drives, and help control possession against an opponent that wanted to play considerably faster.

We can debate individual decisions, but the overall strategy was effective. Leipold faced 13 meaningful fourth-down decisions and chose to go for it eight times, attempt three field goals, and punt just twice. (The 14th fourth down came at the end of the game after Marshall took three knees to run out the clock.) That’s a remarkable degree of aggressiveness, especially considering how well Baylor’s defense had played so far this season.

Apparently, the solution to KU’s punting problems was to stop punting.

Honorable Mention: Dylan Edwards. Thirty carries, 156 yards, and 5.2 yards per attempt against that Baylor defense deserves recognition. The Jayhawks needed somebody who could consistently create positive yardage, and Edwards delivered.

The Bad

Let’s talk about the Kansas passing game.

Not because Marshall failed to make important plays. He certainly made some, including the throw to McMillan as well as the winning touchdown run. But Kansas still had far too many negative plays when it tried to throw the football.

Marshall was 17-of-29 for 212 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on his individual throws. Those aren’t disastrous numbers, but the two interceptions and five sacks certainly complicate the picture. The sacks cost the Jayhawks 31 yards. And when you combine those sacks with the incompletions and interceptions, KU’s ability to consistently move the ball through the air became considerably less impressive.

The biggest mistake came on the first offensive play of the second half.

With the game tied 7-7, Marshall threw toward the flat while Cam Pickett continued downfield. Baylor’s Devon Jordan was waiting, intercepted the pass, and returned it 42 yards for a touchdown. Marshall explained afterward that he expected Pickett to run a hitch route, but Pickett adjusted his route instead. We don’t know who was responsible for the miscommunication, but the result was a seven-point gift to Baylor.

To Marshall’s credit, he didn’t let it ruin the rest of his afternoon. He eventually threw two touchdown passes and directed the game-winning drive, demonstrating the kind of composure Leipold praised afterward.

But Kansas also struggled to protect Marshall consistently. Baylor entered the game with 22 sacks in six games and added five more Saturday. Turns out that it’s difficult to sustain drives when you’re repeatedly putting your quarterback behind the chains, particularly against a defense that has been so effective at stopping the run.

But the passing game remains inconsistent, and it’s unlikely that KU is going to be able to count on converting five fourth downs every week to compensate.

The Ugly

Can we discuss the final five minutes? Because even though Kansas won, that was an impressive collection of opportunities to lose a football game.

The Jayhawks failed to convert a fourth-and-one with 4:58 remaining, giving Baylor another possession with the Bears holding a narrow lead. Baylor eventually added a field goal to make it 24-19 with 2:40 left.

At that point, Kansas needed a touchdown. Not a field goal. Not another encouraging drive that ended just short of the goal line. An actual touchdown.

To its credit, the offense delivered. Marshall led Kansas 71 yards in six plays, finishing with a 15-yard touchdown run that gave KU a 25-24 lead with 1:13 remaining.

Fantastic!

Except Kansas failed on the two-point conversion. That’s decidedly less fantastic.

That meant Baylor needed only a field goal to win, with more than a minute remaining. And sure enough, the Bears started moving the football, until, wait, a flag? Holding on Baylor? Fantastic!

First-and-20 conversion… decidedly less fantastic. Now the Bears are at midfield already. After all the missed opportunities, turnovers, sacks, and other adventures we’ve experienced this season, Kansas was once again in position to lose a game it had somehow managed to take control of.

A few plays later, Baylor lined up for a 45-yard field goal with 22 seconds remaining.

And Blake Herold blocked it.

Game over.

Kansas… wins?

Wait… really?? Kansas WINS???

I don’t know how many times we’ve watched the Jayhawks lose games because of a critical turnover, a missed kick, a special teams disaster, or an inability to make one final play.

This time, Kansas was the team that made the play.

It’s also worth remembering that Baylor did plenty to help. The Bears committed 12 penalties for 116 yards, failed on two of three fourth-down attempts, and couldn’t put the game away despite leading by 11 entering the fourth quarter.

But Kansas still had to take advantage. And for once, the Jayhawks did. And maybe that’s the most important thing we learned Saturday. Because Kansas didn’t suddenly become a flawless football team.

It just finally found a way to win a game without playing flawless football.

I’ll take it.

The Stats

Isaiah Marshall: 17-of-29 passing for 212 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Added 31 net rushing yards and the game-winning 15-yard touchdown.

Dylan Edwards: 30 carries for 156 yards (5.2 YPC). Also caught three passes for 15 yards.

Chase Belcher: Six carries for 24 yards.

Khijhonn Cummings-Coleman: Two carries for six yards.

Nik McMillan: Two receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown.

Carson Bruhn: Five receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown.

Nahzae Cox: Three receptions for 51 yards.

Cam Pickett: Four receptions for 17 yards.

Bam Crouch: Team-high 10 tackles (nine solo), two tackles for loss, and one sack.

Corey Gordon: Seven tackles (six solo).

Trey Lathan: Seven tackles (four solo) and an interception returned six yards.

David Santiago: Five tackles and two quarterback hurries.

Kevin Oatis: Four tackles, including half a sack.

Austin Alexander: Three tackles, including one tackle for loss.

Leroy Harris III: Two tackles, 1.5 TFLs, half a sack, and one pass breakup.

Martin Connington: Two field goals made, from 40 and 42 yards, on three attempts.

Matthew Gill: Two punts for 102 yards (51.0 average), including a 66-yarder and one punt inside the 20. There’s some irony in Gill having a solid statistical performance on the same afternoon Leipold acknowledged that concerns about the punting game influenced his fourth-down decisions.

Blake Herold: Blocked Baylor’s potential game-winning field goal with 22 seconds remaining.

Up Next

Kansas travels to Fort Worth on Saturday, October 31, to face TCU. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT on FS1.

The Horned Frogs have already demonstrated that Baylor can be beaten, having defeated the Bears 17-6 the week before Kansas did.

The Jayhawks are now 3-4 and need three wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible. That’s still a pretty substantial challenge, but at least the conversation has become a little more interesting.

And apparently, all I need to do is stop watching Kansas football games. You’re welcome, Jayhawk Nation.

All I ask of the Great Pumpkin next weekend is that we avoid the running clock on this trip to Fort Worth.