After ‘heart-piercing’ loss to Utah, does BYU still have a path to CFP, Big 12 championship game?

Eight-point losses to UCF and Utah in two of the past three weeks — both resulting in celebratory field invasions by fans of the Knights and Utes, respectively — were obviously devastating to BYU’s dream of getting to the College Football Playoffs in its fourth season in the Big 12.

The CFP committee has not looked favorably upon two-loss teams that don’t belong to the SEC or Big Ten since its formation in 2014. But miracles do happen.

A big tell will come Tuesday when the next CFP rankings are released; how much will BYU be punished, if at all, for falling 28-20 at now-No. 2 Utah 20-14 after leading at halftime at the hornet’s nest known as Rice-Eccles Stadium?

BYU dropped five spots to No. 12 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll released Sunday. That’s not a good sign, obviously.

First and foremost, and to make all the speculation about tiebreakers and CFP rankings matter, the 7-2 Cougars have to win their remaining three Big 12 games, beginning Saturday against much-improved Baylor (4-2, 6-3) at LaVell Edwards Stadium (1:30 p.m., Fox).

Another loss, and all this speculation is moot.

After hosting the red-hot Bears, who haven’t lost since replacing coach Dave Aranda with interim coach Joe Klanderman, BYU travels to Kansas (1-5, 3-6) and finishes up at home against Cincinnati (2-4, 5-4).

Those are far from being gimmes, either, as Kansas almost beat UCF at home Saturday and Cincinnati owns a win over Texas Tech and almost upset No. 17 Houston on Saturday before falling 31-24 to the Cougars.

Obviously, BYU cannot afford another loss, or it will be playing in a mid-level bowl game such as the Pop-Tarts Bowl or Alamo Bowl for the third straight season.

There’s still a path for BYU to get an at-large berth, but those hopes mostly rely on Notre Dame remaining unbeaten and several teams ahead of them losing multiple times. After losing 28-24 at BYU on Oct. 17, the Irish have defeated Navy 35-13 and No. 1 Miami 31-24 and are back on track to securing their own at-large bid.

Boston College, SMU and Syracuse remain on Notre Dame’s schedule. Sure, the Irish could take one of the at-large spots that BYU desires, but the reason why BYU fans should probably cheer hard for ND is because that October win in Provo is looking more and more like one of the best wins throughout college football the entire season.

It could pay huge dividends on Dec. 6 when the final CFP rankings are released.

The clearer path for BYU to make the CFP could be through the Big 12 race, which is controlled by the Utes (6-0, 9-0) right now. The winner of the Big 12 championship game gets an automatic berth in the CFP, as Texas Tech did last year by beating BYU 34-7 at AT&T Stadium.

So how do the Cougars get back to Arlington? What must happen?

Well, it is complicated with three games remaining in the regular season.

Matt Ensor, Senior Director of Communications for the Big 12, told the Deseret News on Saturday night that it is “still too early” for the league to announce tiebreaker scenarios. The Big 12’s policy is to announce possibilities when contending teams can clinch a spot in their upcoming game.

Currently, Texas Tech is 5-1 and in second place in league play, while BYU, Houston, Arizona, Baylor and Oklahoma State are all 4-2.

Texas Tech, which eked past West Virginia at home Saturday and is nowhere near where it was last year defensively, needs to lose at least one of its final three games for BYU or any of the other teams tied for third place right now to have a chance. The Red Raiders have tough games at Oklahoma State and Baylor and finish the season at home against TCU.

All three of those games are losable.

After Utah and Texas Tech, Houston (7-2, 4-2) is in the most favorable spot. BYU, which doesn’t face Houston this season, needs the red-wearing Cougars to lose at least one more game because Houston emerges on top in almost every tiebreaker scenario of two-loss teams.

BYU’s best chance of coming out of a tiebreaker scenario in a top-two spot would be for Texas Tech and Utah to have two conference losses apiece and for everyone else to have three or more. BYU, Utah and Tech have three common opponents — Arizona, Cincinnati and TCU — and BYU is currently 2-0 there having beaten Arizona and TCU. BYU hosts Cincy on Nov. 28.

If Utah remains alone in first and BYU and Texas Tech tie for second with two losses apiece, it will come down to common opponents of the Cougars and Red Raiders because they don’t play each other in 2026. They’ve each played or will play Arizona, Baylor, Arizona State, Cincinnati and TCU.

So we’re saying there is a chance for BYU. The greater question is whether it can bounce back after an emotionally and physically rivalry game and finish out the season strong.

The talent is there, but so are the nagging issues — poor tackling, turnovers, penalties — that have kept BYU from being undefeated.

A case could be made that BYU is two missed tackles and/or a couple of questionable penalties late in the UCF and Utah games away from being undefeated; A case could also be made that the Cougars are two or three plays away from being 5-4 and still playing for bowl eligibility.