Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers Opening Odds: Cover or Not?

It is officially LSU Hate Week for Alabama fans – and certainly the other way around for the Tigers fans. Both teams come into the first weekend in November with a 6-2 record. Many of the sports wonks have both of these teams tabbed as “bubble teams” in the College Football Playoff. To say this is a crucial game for both teams is an understatement.

The Crimson Tide has played really well in Baton Rouge over the years including most recently in 2024 – Kalen DeBoer’s first year as Bama head coach. This game is back in the Louisiana state capital and the Tigers have a 5-0 home record at Tiger Stadium for the 2026 season. Much to the chagrin of the Bayou faithful, it will not be following their imaginary tradition of a being a night kickoff. This game begins at 2:30pm CT and airs on ABC.

In the preseason, the Crimson Tide had always been an underdog. This week FanDuel has odds of Alabama being a 4.5 point underdog with an Over/Under of 53.5.

LSU

Through the first six games, the sportsbooks had been overzealous on four of the spreads for LSU. In the last two of eight, the Bayou Bengals have been way over the spread, seemingly righting their ship. Overall, the Tigers are 5-3 on the Over/Under.

• Sep 5 vs Clemson: -10.5 / 48.5, Won 51-10 (-41, 61), Won / Over
• Sep 12 vs Louisiana Tech: -34.5 / 55.5, Won 45-14 (-31, 59), Lost / Over
• Sep 19 @Ole Miss: -3 / 58.5, Lost 24-32 (+8, 56), Lost / Under
• Sep 26 vs Texas A&M: -8.5 / 52.5, Won 35-6 (-29, 41), Won / Under
• Oct 3 vs McNeese: -53.5 / 62.5, Won 63-14 (-49, 77), Lost / Over
• Oct 10 @Kentucky: -9.5 / 50.5, Lost 34-35 (+1, 69), Lost / Over
• Oct 17 vs Mississippi State: -17.5 / 56.5, Won 31-0 (-31, 31), Won / Under
• Oct 24 @Auburn: -7 / 52.5, Won 38-17 (-21, 55), Won / Over

Taking a closer look at the LSU schedule, they are 1-2 on the road. Ole Miss and Kentucky both topped the Tigers and are looking like CFP candidates. In the Power game victories, they routed Clemson and Texas A&M, but both of those programs are looking like train wrecks. An SEC road win is always impressive but here again, Auburn is a troubled program. Mississippi State is proving to be a pretender without QB Kamario Taylor behind center. So, what is LSU’s best win? At 4-4 (2-4) Auburn maybe?

It should be no surprise that a Lane Kiffin team is going to score points. LSU is tied for 7th in the nation in points per game at 40.1. The smallest amount of points they have scored this year is 24 in a loss to Ole Miss. The defense gives up 16.0 ppg, good for 16th in FBS. They have held six opponents to under 20 points including a shutout.

ALABAMA

The Las Vegas guys underestimated the Tide for the first five, but overcompensated the last three games.

• Sep 5 vs East Carolina: -29.5/52.5, Won 48-10 (-38, 58), Won/Over
• Sep 12 at Kentucky: -10.5/47.5, Won 45-17 (-28, 62), Won/Over
• Sep 19 vs Florida State: -19.5 / 50.5, Won 50-36 (-14, 86), Lost / Over
• Sep 26 vs South Carolina: -12.5 / 53.5, Won 49-18 (-31, 67), Won / Over
• Oct 3 at Mississippi State: -4.5 / 63.5, Won 56-23 (-33, 59), Won / Over
• Oct 10 vs Georgia -1.5 / 51.5, Lost 17-20 (+3, 37), Lost / Under
• Oct 17 at Tennessee -8.5 / 51.5, Lost 10-26 (+16, 36), Lost / Under
• Oct 24 vs Texas A&M -13.5 / 49.5, Won 31-20 (-9, 51), Lost / Over

Over the first five weeks of the season, betting over on the Crimson Tide numbers was a pretty good bet. While everyone figured the showdown with Georgia would be a close one, there were not too many people who would have expected the outcome of the Alabama-Tennessee showdown. Against the Aggies, Bama struggled for three quarters and finally turned that switch back on for the final 15 or so minutes. Is that witch still on or will they go back to the struggle of the previous two games?

Alabama is 2-1 on the road with two high-scoring wins including contributing to Kentucky’s only loss of the season. The win in Starkville came against the aforementioned Kamario Taylor until he left the game late with an injury. The Tennessee loss was dreadful for the Tide, but overall their resume looks a smidge better than most.

The official injury reports come out on Wednesday and can be altered through the rest of the week. Key Alabama players are trending towards a return for this game. They include star receiver Ryan Williams, starting center Racin Delgatty, starting defensive tackle Terrance Green, and starting cornerback Zabien Brown.

MATH

With an over/under of 53.5 and 4.5 point spread by FanDuel, the final score could look something like LSU winning 29-24. Are you buying that?

After a shaky first half of the season, LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has had two strong showings in a row. It should be no coincident that in those two games, Leavitt has not turned the ball over. Alabama is third in FBS in turnovers gained with 19 and 11th in turnover margin at +7. If they want to upset the Tigers, they will need to keep that trend going.

For this one, I do feel both teams will score under 30. But I am not prepared to pick and Over or Under. I also see a tighter spread than the suggested 4.5. That would be taking Bama plus the points. What do you think? Give us your thoughts in Comments below.