Beyond bluebloods: 5 men’s basketball mid-majors with real March upset juice

When people think of March Madness, they usually picture huge basketball schools like Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida. These teams get all the attention and are usually expected to win. But the best part of the tournament is the surprises. Smaller schools, often called “mid-majors,” can flip the whole bracket upside down if they have the right skills to take on the big guys.

Just because a team is ranked lower doesn’t mean they will be an easy team to beat. Smaller programs have a real shot at winning if they are great at shooting 3-pointers, have smart guards, play tough defense or grab a lot of rebounds. Some of these small-school teams win by scoring fast, while others win by playing hard defense to get extra turns with the ball.

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The first week of the 2026-27 college basketball season has already given us a few clues. A couple of smaller teams have started off strong and look like they could really push the big schools. While we don’t know for sure whether they will make the tournament, you should definitely keep an eye on them.

5. Illinois-Chicago Flames (Missouri Valley)

The University of Illinois-Chicago (UIC) has built its early-season success around defense. Ranked No. 5 in the CollegeInsider Mid-Major Top 25, the Flames have started the 2026-27 season 3-0. Their defensive approach could make them a difficult game for higher-seeded teams in March.

The Flames showed their strength in a 79-56 win over Robert Morris. They allowed only 24 points in the second half and forced 13 turnovers during the final 20 minutes. That kind of defensive pressure can change a game quickly. It also makes life difficult for teams that depend on a fast offensive rhythm.

Rashund Washington Jr. led UIC with 19 points and 12 rebounds against Robert Morris. His production gives the team a strong presence on both ends of the floor. Historically, teams seeded between ninth and 12th that pull off tournament upsets often have strong adjusted defensive efficiency and force turnovers. UIC has shown signs of fitting that profile. If the Flames maintain this defensive level, they could turn a Round of 64 matchup into a tough, low-scoring contest.

4. East Texas A&M Lions (Southland)

East Texas A&M has shown that winning away from home can be a major strength. The Lions opened their Division I season 2-0, collecting two true road wins. Their 72-71 comeback win over Rice was particularly impressive.

After falling behind by 11 points, the Lions fought back by controlling the boards. They outrebounded Rice 48-33 and collected 21 offensive rebounds. Those extra possessions helped them stay in the game and eventually complete the comeback.

Offensive rebounding can be especially important in a single-elimination tournament. Underdogs often need extra scoring chances to keep up with more talented teams. East Texas A&M has already shown it can create those opportunities.

Mohamed Diakite played a major role in the win. He scored 23 points and made a game-winning block in the closing seconds. His ability to score and protect the rim gives the Lions an important presence inside. Their physical approach could trouble taller opponents that struggle to secure defensive rebounds.

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3. Nevada Wolf Pack (Mountain West)

Nevada has the kind of backcourt that can make a difference against stronger opponents. The Wolf Pack improved to 2-0 early in the 2026-27 season with a 96-95 overtime win over Saint Mary’s at the Caesars Lake Tahoe Classic.

The victory showed how dangerous Nevada can be when its guards find their rhythm. The team shot 58% from the field and recorded 24 assists. That level of ball movement helped the Wolf Pack create quality scoring opportunities throughout the game.

Vaughn Weems led the way with 33 points against the Gaels. Styles Phipps added 25 points, including 11 in overtime. Both guards stepped up when the game became tight. Their ability to create shots and score under pressure gives Nevada a valuable advantage.

Guard play often decides close NCAA Tournament games. Teams that can protect the ball, move it well and create offense late in the shot clock are difficult to put away. Nevada has displayed all three qualities early in the season. Its offensive efficiency and experienced approach could make it a dangerous opponent in a potential 5-vs-12 or 8-vs-9 matchup.

2. High Point Panthers (Big South)

High Point entered the season with high expectations. Ranked No. 2 in the Mid-Major Top 25, the Panthers have started 3-0 and already recorded an impressive win over Washington State.

Their 83-71 victory highlighted the team’s offensive strength. High Point shot 58.7 percent from the field and scored 36 points in the paint. The Panthers also received 38 points from their bench, giving them a major advantage in scoring depth.

CJ Brown led the team with 17 points. Cam’Ron Fletcher and Jason Rivera-Torres added 13 points each. Their contributions showed that High Point does not depend on one player to carry its offense.

That depth could become important during March Madness. High-major teams often have stronger athletes and more size, but they can struggle when opponents score efficiently and keep fresh players on the floor. High Point has already shown that it can do both. Its ability to finish around the basket and get production from its reserves makes the Panthers a difficult game for any power-conference team.

1. Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)

Saint Louis has made one of the strongest early statements among mid-major programs. The Billikens opened the 2026-27 season with a 90-84 win over SEC opponent Missouri. Their 3-point shooting played a major role in the win.

Saint Louis made 14 of 25 attempts from beyond the arc, an outstanding 56 percent shooting rate. The team also showed its depth by placing five players in double figures. Amari McCottry and Ishan Sharma led the way with 17 points each, while Trey Green contributed 16.

The most impressive part was that the Billikens achieved this result without preseason star Robbie Avila. He missed the game because of an eligibility issue. Last season, Avila averaged 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4 assists per game while shooting 36 percent from 3-point range. His return could give the offense another reliable scoring option.

Three-point shooting is one of the biggest weapons available to lower-seeded teams. Historical tournament trends show that 13-to-16 seeds often need frequent and efficient shooting from deep to challenge favorites. Saint Louis has already demonstrated that ability against Missouri.

With multiple players capable of scoring and Avila expected to strengthen the rotation once available, the Billikens have the offensive options to trouble even a top-four seed.

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