Bowl Projections and College Football Playoff Predictions Week 10

The CFN bowl projections just took a funky twist going into Week 10 with a few big calls. It starts with this: the College Football Playoff committee will shoehorn in at least one 9-3 SEC team.
The call is that, for the first time in the short history of the CFP, a team with more than two regular-season losses will get an at-large spot in the rankings over a Power Four program that goes 10-2. Start with that, and throw in another funky belief that the Group of Six champion getting the CFP 12-seed won’t be Boise State.
– Go here for the College Football Playoff picks, bracket, and explanation.

Week 10 Bowl Projections

Bowl Projections Quick Hits

• The key game in all of this is Wake Forest at SMU on November 14th. If SMU wins, we predict that it will go on to lose at Notre Dame, and the ACC becomes a one-bid CFP conference, meaning the bowls will be loaded with ACC teams.
• There will likely be too many eligible teams for the bowls, with the MAC and Sun Belt not having enough open spots. However, several eligible teams will pass on the bowl invites – too many personnel losses to the transfer portal – so everyone will eventually get a spot.
• We will shoehorn in a few Power Four programs into bowls with other affiliations. This will all eventually work out as teams pass on spots, but for now, we’ll play it straight.

Cricket Celebration Bowl

South Carolina State vs Alabama A&M
Saturday, December 12, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Season: South Carolina State 50, Prairie View A&M 38 4OT
Bowl Affiliations: MEAC, SWAC

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

Delaware vs Miami University
Tuesday, December 15, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Last Season: Jacksonville State 17, Troy 13
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt

Frisco Football Classic

Middle Tennessee vs Georgia State
Tuesday, December 15, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Ford Center at the Star, Frisco, TX
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, Sun Belt

TransPerfect San Juan Bowl

Pitt vs Marshall
Wednesday, December 16, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ESPN
Location: Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Sun Belt

Boca Raton Bowl

Florida Atlantic vs West Virginia*
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 11:00 am, ESPN
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Last Season: Louisville 27, Toledo 22
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

USF vs Mississippi State
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Season: NC State 31, Memphis 7
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, CUSA (ACC, SEC)

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana
Monday, December 21, 2026
Game Time: 11:00 am, ESPN
Location: Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Last Season: Western Michigan 41, Kennesaw State 6
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Ohio vs UNLV
Monday, December 21, 2026
Game Time: 2:30, ESPN
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Last Season: Washington State 34, Utah State 21
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Mountain West

Puerto Rico Bowl

Central Michigan vs Fresno State
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 1:30, ESPN
Location: Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium, Bayamón, Puerto Rico
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Group of 6 or Pac-12

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

FIU vs App State
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 5:00, ESPN
Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: Old Dominion 24, USF 10
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

UCF vs Oregon State
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 8:30, ESPN
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Last Season: Louisiana Tech 23, Coastal Carolina 14
Bowl Affiliations: Big 12, Former Pac-12

New Orleans Bowl

Liberty vs James Madison
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Last Season: Western Kentucky 27, Southern Miss 16
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, Sun Belt

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs Baylor
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Last Season: Texas State 41, Rice 10
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, CUSA, (or Big 12)

Poinsettia Bowl

Washington vs Boise State*
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, CW
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: Former Pac-12, Mountain West/New Pac/12
*This one would require some tweaking. The bowl is set up for a former Pac-12 team to get a spot, but in this specific case, if Boise State really is available, the ESPN bowl types would do everything possible to give the Broncos a great matchup.

Frisco Bowl

Tulsa vs Texas State
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Last Season: Ohio 17, UNLV 10
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

Air Force vs Arkansas State
Thursday, December 24, 2026
Game Time: 2:30, ESPN
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Last Season: North Texas 49, San Diego State 47
Bowl Affiliations: Mountain West, CUSA or Sun Belt

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Wyoming vs UAB
Thursday, December 24, 2026
Game Time: 7:00, ESPN
Location: Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Last Season: Hawaii 35, Cal 31
Bowl Affiliations: Mountain West, CUSA (or AAC), New Pac-12

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

North Carolina vs Penn State
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Last Season: Penn State 22, Clemson 10
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big Ten

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

UTSA vs Clemson
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Last Season: Army 41, UConn 16
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, ACC

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Virginia vs Nebraska
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, ABC
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Last Season: Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big Ten (or SEC)

68 Ventures Bowl

Western Michigan vs Louisiana Tech
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Last Season: Delaware 20, Louisiana 13
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt

Cactus Bowl

Northwestern vs Kansas State
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ABC
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Last Season: Minnesota 20, New Mexico 17 OT
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, Big 12

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl

Tulane vs Virginia Tech
Monday, December 28, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Last Season: East Carolina 23, Pitt 17
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, ACC

Holiday Bowl

Louisville vs Arizona State
Monday, December 28, 2026
Game Time: 5:00, CW
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Last Season: SMU 24, Arizona 19
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Former Pac-12

JLab Birmingham Bowl

Memphis vs Auburn
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Last Season: Georgia Southern 29, App State 10
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, SEC

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Duke vs Cincinnati
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: BYU 25, Georgia Tech 21
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big 12

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oregon vs Houston
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Last Season: TCU 30, USC 27 OT
Bowl Affiliations: Former Pac-12, Big 12

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Wake Forest vs Ole Miss
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 11:30 am, ESPN
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Last Season: Virginia 13, Missouri 7
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, SEC

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

Michigan vs Florida
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 3:00, ESPN
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Last Season: Illinois 30, Tennessee 28
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

ReliaQuest Bowl

Wisconsin vs Tennessee
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Season: Iowa 34, Vanderbilt 27
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

Old El Paso Sun Bowl

SMU vs Arizona
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, CBS
Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Last Season: Duke 42, Arizona State 39
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Former Pac-12

Las Vegas Bowl

South Carolina vs USC
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 3:45, ESPN
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last Season: Utah 44, Nebraska 22
Bowl Affiliations: SEC, Former Pac-12

Kinder’s Texas Bowl

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Last Season: Houston 38, LSU 35
Bowl Affiliations: Big 12, SEC

Citrus Bowl

Minnesota vs Alabama
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: Texas 41, Michigan 27
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

North Texas vs Texas A&M*
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 3:30, ESPN
Location: Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Last Season: UTSA 57, FIU 20
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6 (or ACC)

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop

Toledo vs North Dakota State
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 5:30, CW
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Last Season: Fresno State 18, Miami University 3
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Mountain West

College Football Playoff Projections

Here’s our explanation for the seedings.
1. Notre Dame will beat Miami, beat SMU, and end up 11-1.
2. Georgia will run the table, including the SEC Championship, but will be just behind the Irish because they’ll be the only team to beat Miami.
3. Miami will finally win an ACC Championship and finish 12-1.
4. Ohio State will limp into the Big Ten Championship and will beat UCLA.
5. After beating BYU, Utah will be upset at Arizona. The Utes will still go on to beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship.
6. Indiana will get by USC, at Washington, and Purdue to finish 11-1.
7. UCLA will get to the Big Ten Championship and lose.
8. LSU – this is the big call because this hinges on beating Tennessee in Knoxville. The Tigers win out, but lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
9. Iowa isn’t pretty, but it doesn’t lose the rest of the way and finishes 10-2.
10. BYU loses to Utah and finishes 10-2, but it doesn’t go to the Big 12 Championship. However, it will be the one team that beat Notre Dame to take the last at-large spot.
11. Texas – and here’s where the CFP breaks the three regular-season loss (before the conference championships) precedent. Texas loses at LSU, but finishes 9-3 with wins over Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Tennessee to earn this spot.
12. New Mexico runs the table, including the Mountain West Championship. Boise State loses once along the way, either to Oregon State, or in the Pac-12 Championship. (BUT, Boise State is here if it runs the table.

College Football Playoff First Round

Iowa (9) at LSU (8)
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 8:00, ESPN
Location: To Be Determined
New Mexico (12) at Utah (5)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC/ESPN
Location: To Be Determined
BYU (10) at UCLA (7)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, TNT/truTV
Location: To Be Determined
Texas (11) at Indiana (6)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: To Be Determined

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Indiana (6) vs Miami (3)
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

UCLA (7) vs Georgia (2)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

LSU (8) vs Notre Dame (1)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential

Utah (5) vs Ohio State (4)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl

LSU (8) vs Ohio State (4)
Thursday, January 14, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Miami (3) vs Georgia (2)
Friday, January 15, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, ABC/ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

College Football Playoff National Championship

LSU (8) vs Georgia (2)
Monday, January 25, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, ABC
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV