We're into Week 10 of the college fantasy football season and the playoffs are fast approaching. Yahoo analyst Eric Froton has everything you need to prep for your fantasy playoff push and looks ahead to the schedule for some key programs, so you know who you can trust when it matters most.
The Week 12 FCS anomalies
Ole Miss
Schedule: Wofford and Mississippi State
Mississippi State
Schedule: Samford and at Ole Miss
Two legendary SEC rivalry games are engaging in a bit of gamesmanship by shoehorning a pre-rivalry week FCS game as a soft-bye heading into the Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl. Last year, Mississippi State did not play a soft-bye game, but Ole Miss faced off against The Citadel in Week 12 with the Rebels shutting them out 49-0. In the contest, Trinidad Chambliss delivered 333 passing yards and three touchdowns, Kewan Lacy ran 11 times for three scores and three receivers had at least 50 receiving yards and a touchdown.
So Ole Miss kept its starters in long enough against The Citadel to make them startable for CFF purposes, even though Chambliss didn't run at all, which suppressed his upside, and Lacy only accrued 49 rushing yards in the abbreviated showing. Your key Rebels contributors should be in your lineup against Wofford, while the Kamario Taylor-less Bulldogs have struggled to recover from his injury-related absence. I tend to think MSU will keep the starters in for three quarters, as it tries to establish some continuity on offense.
Alabama
Schedule: Chattanooga and Auburn
Alabama sacrificed Eastern Illinois 56-0 in Week 13 last year, with Alabama running for 269 yards and eight rushing touchdowns as Ty Simpson completed 11-of-16 passes for 147 yards and two interceptions in a shaky Iron Bowl tuneup where 12 different receivers caught passes, and Jaylen Mbakwe led the 'Tide with 39 receiving yards. Bama divided 29 carries among the top-three rushers, with all three of them scoring at least one touchdown and five runners scoring touchdowns in total. RB Kevin Riley led the running backs with 20.3 points, so in theory Trae'shawn Brown and Daniel Hill have low-end flex utility since there is a path to 2+ rushing touchdowns for either of them. I have major reservations about using the 'Bama wideouts though, since I expect them to spread the ball around to several different receivers. So your Alabama pass catchers will be volume restricted and extremely touchdown dependent in Week 12.
Auburn
Schedule: Tennessee Tech and at Alabama
Auburn played Mercer in Week 13 last season, and properly dispatched them 62-17 with Deuce Knight scoring six touchdowns in his coming out party. Malcolm Simmons popped off for 149 receiving yards and a touchdown, while Cam Coleman put up 15 points. New HC Alex Golesh may take a different approach, but I'd expect a heavy RB rotation with Jeremiah Cobb scoring a touchdown then sitting out the rest of the game. Byrum Brown will notch a few scores before being pulled at halftime, which means the WR room will be fantasy whack-a-mole trying to figure out which one is actually worth playing.
Remember to exercise caution and don't invest too heavily in these soft-bye games since many starters will be on the bench in the second half and won't have the ability to pile up touches and/or yardage.
Most Favorable Playoff Schedules
Big Ten
Penn State
Schedule: Rutgers and at Maryland
Penn State has an absolute dream playoff schedule, with Rutgers (124th D SP+) and Maryland (89th D SP+) on tap. Maryland has lost five straight games, allowing 35+ points in each, with their defense ranking 110th in passing success rate (44.4%) with 29% of targets they've defended going to wide open receivers (122nd). The Terps also rank seventh nationally in pace of play, so PSU should get to rip off 75-80 plays and score 35+ points against their hapless defense. Rutgers is one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking 124th in yards per successful play (13.4) and 129th in success rate allowed, and have yet to hold an FBS team under 28 points. You could argue the Nittany Lions have the best playoff stretch in the country.
Indiana
Schedule: at Washington and Purdue
Washington has lost three of five conference contests and ranks 115th in man coverage passing yards allowed at 8.5, which it plays 43% of the time. Indiana rips man coverage for 8.8 yards per attempt (26th) and ranks fourth in marginal explosiveness, so it should be able to move the ball consistently against the Huskies despite the Hoosiers averaging just 17 PPG over their last three games.
Big 12
Arizona
Schedule: at Kansas State and Arizona State
The Power Four's most fantasy friendly conference has two teams that line up quite well for the playoff run. Arizona gets to face a Kansas State defense that ranks 133rd in yards per successful play allowed and has allowed 27+ points in four of its last five games. Arizona State gave up 48 points to Texas A&M, 55 points to Baylor and 53 points to Texas Tech and will be hard pressed to contain Arizona's 17th-rated offense.
BYU
Schedule: at Kansas and Cincinnati
BYU takes on a 3-5 Kansas defense that has allowed 22+ points to every P4 program, ranks 134th nationally in yards per successful rush (11.4) and 96th with 17.5% of completions gaining 20+ yards. Cincinnati followed up its inspirational 37-24 upset win over Texas Tech by giving up 534 yards and 49 points to Utah. The Bearcats are 1-3 in their last four games and are fielding a lower-echelon defense that ranks 96th in SP+ and 136th allowing 40.0 yards per drive. The Cougars' offense, QB Bear Bachmeier and WR Legend Glasker should be major contributors down the stretch.
ACC
Cal
Schedule: Stanford and Pittsburgh
Cal is in position to play a pair of bona fide shootouts, starting with Stanford's 125th-ranked SP+ defense that is allowing a dismal 49% success rate (136th in FBS) and 83% red zone touchdown rate (137th). Pitt has a superb rush defense, leading the nation in yards per carry allowed (3.2) and yards before contact (.7). However, it is eminently beatable through the air, ranking 126th in yards per successful dropback (16.6) and 116th in adjusted completion rate. Pitt's defensive imbalance is perfect for Cal's ultra pass-heavy scheme that ranks second among all P4 programs in pass rate.
Miami
Schedule: Virginia Tech and BC
Miami has been cruising once again behind Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, and get to face a Virginia Tech defense that is extremely vulnerable to big plays, ranking 122nd in yards per successful play allowed (13.2) and 108th in plays of 20+ yards allowed. Boston College just lost 47-2 to Duke and has struggled to contain the better teams on its schedule. Miami's No. 1-rated offense should carve up both teams, and hopefully VT and BC can score a little bit to keep Miami's foot on the gas.
SEC
LSU
Schedule: at Tennessee and at Arkansas
While Tennessee's defense is pretty credible overall with a 45% three-and-out rate that ranks third nationally, the unit struggles to wrap up rushers, ranking 127th in tackle success rate and 118th in yards after contact (2.8). LSU RB Dilin Jones should have a big game Week 12 against the Vols. Arkansas is the worst defense in the SEC, ranking 89th in SP+, 131st in points per scoring opportunity and 111th in yards per play allowed. LSU has the sixth-rated offense in the country and is playing at the 18th fastest pace, so the Tigers should top 30+ points in each contest.
Georgia
Schedule: at South Carolina and Georgia Tech
Georgia is ruthlessly efficient offensively averaging 7.3 yards per play (3rd) and 3.23 points per drive (9th). South Carolina allowed 35+ points to Kentucky, Alabama and Mississippi State and ranks 124th in points per scoring opportunity. Georgia should be able to throw at will on the leaky SC secondary that ranks 126th in completion rate allowed and 104th with a 44% passing success rate. Georgia Tech has lost three straight games allowing 34+ points in each with its defense ranking 137th in marginal explosiveness and 114th in 20+ yard plays allowed. The Dawgs should do anything they want to the Yellow Jackets.
Least Favorable Playoff Schedules
Big Ten
Michigan
Schedule: UCLA and at Ohio State
Tough to trust anyone from the Wolverines down the stretch, even with Tommy Carr's 30+ point performance last weekend, as UCLA ranks ninth in SP+ defense and absolutely smothers the run game. Ohio State's Matt Patricia-led defense ranks third overall and are similarly stout against the run. Perhaps you could use JJ Buchanan as your flex in a Hail Mary spot, but it's hard to be excited about the Wolverines' playoff prospects.
Washington
Schedule: Indiana and at Oregon
Crazy to think it took QB Demond Williams getting hurt for Washington to win a pair of Big Ten games, but here we are. Unfortunately Washington has a one-dimensional offense that can't run the ball with any regularity, ranking 122nd in rushing success rate and 137th in yards after contact. The Huskies are going to have extreme difficulty moving the ball against Indiana's No. 1 ranked SP+ defense that is allowing a 29% rushing success rate (2nd) and 4.1 yards per play (2nd). With a rain-soaked affair in Eugene for fantasy championship matchups against Oregon's vaunted secondary that is allowing a 55% completion rate (14th), it's hard to rely on your late-season Washington players.
SEC
Texas A&M
Schedule: at Oklahoma and Texas
I've long been a detractor of A&M QB Marcel Reed and his wonky throwing motion, so it's going to be hard to trust him against Oklahoma's excellent pass defense that ranks 11th in success rate (34.3%) with 42% of drives ending up in three-and-outs (8th). The sledding doesn't get any easier against in-state rival Texas' fifth-ranked defense that ranks first overall in yards per play allowed (4.0) and yards per drop back allowed (4.4). I'm benching everyone associated with the Aggies come playoff time.
Arkansas
Schedule: at Texas and LSU
I love WR Chris Marshall, but with Arkansas taking on Texas' aforementioned lockdown defense at DKR Stadium and DC Blake Baker's LSU defense ranking second nationally in yards per dropback allowed, you can argue that the Razorbacks are facing the two most impenetrable secondaries in the country in back-to-back playoff weeks. It's going to be hard to trust anyone from the Razorbacks in the final weeks.
ACC
Georgia Tech
Schedule: Wake Forest and at Georgia
Georgia Tech has had trouble bouncing back from losing QB Haynes King, having won just one game against an FBS opponent. It has to face a 7-1 Wake Forest defense that ranks 10th in yards per carry (3.7) and second in yards per successful play allowed (9.9), and the ferocious Georgia defense that ranks second nationally in SP+.
Big 12
TCU
Schedule: Utah and at Texas Tech
You have to feel for TCU, as its defense has been performing at a top-15 level but the Horned Frogs' offense has yet to clear 22 points against a Power Four opponent. The team has the poor fortune of taking on both Utah and Texas Tech's excellent defenses down the stretch, which will render QB Jaden Craig and RB Jeremy Payne unplayable and make WR1 Jordan Dwyer a desperation dart throw in Weeks 12 and 13.
Baylor
Schedule: Texas Tech and Houston
Baylor ranks second in FBS averaging 39 passes per game but has to play Texas Tech's secondary that ranks 10th in completions of 20+ yards allowed. The Bears could be in a pass-heavy script against a potent Houston offense, so I'm not entirely averse to playing QB DJ Lagway or WR Gavin Freeman if he is riding a hot streak into the contest.
Source: Yahoo Sports






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