College Football 5 Thoughts: What Now, Ohio State? SEC’s CFP Problem

There weren’t the wild upsets of a few weeks ago, but the big games were terrific, even if they lacked a national oomph – that’s coming this weekend. But Saturday was a pivotal day in the 2026 college football season with five gigantic things happening.
Ohio State losing to USC turned the Big Ten race upside down and temporarily chilled one of the hottest seats in college coaching. Meanwhile, Boise State had a slew of late-night problems, and there was one giant upset that you didn’t notice, but it sets up one of the biggest games of the season.
– Is Ohio State a contender?
– The SEC’s CFP problem
– Lincoln Riley’s big win
– Under-the-radar biggest game
– Boise State’s scary Halloween

College Football 5 Thoughts After Week 9

Is Ohio State Still a National Championship Contender?

Yes, Ohio State is a Big Ten Championship contender, and it’s still likely to get into the College Football Playoff, but the Buckeyes had issues before the injury to Julian Sayin, and now, after the 30-18 loss to a decent-not-killer USC team, there’s a problem.
Here are the positives. It’s still Ohio State, and it’s still more talented than almost everyone else. Fill-in quarterback Luke Fahey wasn’t bad considering the situation – he threw for 260 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. And then there’s the schedule: Oregon, Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan. That’s not easy, but it’s Ohio State – it’s supposed to beat those four teams, no matter what.
However, the defense isn’t the national title killer of the last few seasons, and even with the 204 rushing yards against the Trojans, the offense isn’t blasting away like it needs to. Against USC, it dominated the tempo – it had the ball for close to 40 minutes, but penalties, stalls, and … everything felt a bit off. The rest of the team didn’t pick up the slack with a new, young (but talented) quarterback under center.
Under Ryan Day, the program plays better with an edge. Use whatever “circle the wagons” or “Ohio State vs. Everyone” cliché you’d like, but that fits here.
However, the Oregon game this week is everything. If the Buckeyes dominate the Ducks, the swagger should return. If they sputter, or just get by – like they did against Indiana – then, as crazy as it might seem, no, Ohio State might not be a player in the College Football Playoff chase.
– Lincoln Riley’s big win
– Under-the-radar biggest game
– Boise State’s scary Halloween

Will the SEC Have Enough College Football Playoff Teams?

In the first two years of the expanded College Football Playoff, the committee has never put in a team that lost three games before the conference championships.
Since the CFP came about in 2014, the committee is notorious for record-ranking, and there’s a reason – it’s justifiable.
This bunch sincerely wants to create the best tournament possible. (Seriously, every conspiracy theory with the CFP is a steaming pile of hoo-ha.) So if it’s between one 10-2 Power Four team and a 9-3 team, 10-2 is the easier call in the rankings.
What if there’s just one SEC team with a record better than 9-3?
Georgia: It’s 7-1, and it should be the one SEC team that avoids three losses, even with at Ole Miss, Missouri, and at South Carolina next.
Kentucky: It’s also 7-1, but it has to deal with at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, and Louisville. There might be two losses there.
To rapid-fire the 6-2 teams with the likely-to-probable third loss: Alabama (at LSU), LSU (at Tennessee, or Alabama, or Texas), Missouri (Texas, at Georgia), Ole Miss (Georgia, or at Oklahoma), Tennessee (Kentucky, at Texas A&M, LSU), Texas (at LSU, at Missouri, at Texas A&M).
Then what? Count it out. All four Power Four champions. Notre Dame, Group of Six champion, two more Big Ten teams, and likely a second Big 12 team. That’s nine, and that doesn’t include a possible third 10-2 Big 12 team, a fourth Big Ten team (like Iowa), or a Wake Forest team that has just one loss before the ACC Championship (more on that in a moment).
It’s okay – the 9-3 barrier is new, and it didn’t factor into the equation in the first two years of a 12-team format because it wasn’t an issue. But this year, assume one 9-3 SEC team gets in, but after six SEC teams made the playoff last season, there might be a hard ceiling on three teams being a part of the fun.
– CFN Top 25 | Bowl Projections

Now what with the USC head coaching situation?

To respectfully steal from Vin Scully’s “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” line, a college football coaching hot seat is next Saturday’s outcome.
A funny thing happened on the way to Lincoln Riley getting fired and (insert ANY big-name coach you want here) being the leading candidate to take over.
Riley was all but gone after USC’s ugly 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, but things tend to look a little better when you beat Ohio State by 12 – the Buckeyes’ worst regular-season loss since dropping the 2022 Michigan game 45-23.
Here’s the problem: at Indiana, at UCLA. Riley can lose the first one, but there will be issues if he loses the second. If he beats them both, USC is off to the CFP – it’ll blow out Maryland – and he gets a gigantic extension. Lose both, and here we go.
By the way, in case you were wondering, not that Oklahoma would welcome Riley back with open arms, but if things continue to spiral in Norman, the Brent Venables buyout is over $50 million.

One of the Most Important Remaining Games in the College Football Playoff Puzzle

I’ll admit it. I thought Virginia would give Wake Forest a game. It did … for a few minutes. The Demon Deacons won 51-7.
I’ll also admit that I loved Syracuse as an underdog against SMU, but I certainly didn’t think it would win outright. The Orange pulled out a 30-27 thriller over the Mustangs in a game that was much, much bigger than you think, because it might end up making the ACC a one-bid CFP conference.
If you’re a fan of one of the SEC teams that will go 9-3, or maybe a top Big 12 team, or an Iowa, or at this point, an Ohio State, get those SMU pom-poms out, because on November 14th, you’re all in on the Mustangs when they host Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons are 7-1, with the only loss coming to Miami. They will beat Merrimack this weekend, and they should rock Georgia Tech, but the regular-season home finale against Duke will be dangerous.
However, if they lose at SMU, that might be it for the ACC unless 1) the Mustangs shock Notre Dame in South Bend on November 21st, and/or 2) someone beats Miami in the ACC Championship.
But if Wake Forest wins in Dallas and gets to the conference title game at 11-1 in a rematch with the Hurricanes, go ahead and reserve two spots in the College Football Playoff for the ACC.

Is Boise State Really a Lock for the Group of Six CFP Spot?

It’s just assumed that Boise State will take the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff if it goes 12-1 with a Pac-12 Championship.
The Broncos are ranked 20th in the AP Top 25 and 21st in the Coaches Poll, and the record-ranking College Football Playoff committee is a mortal lock to put them somewhere around 20ish on Tuesday night.
It’s also a mortal lock to assume that almost everyone doing those rankings hasn’t seen the Broncos play in a while, if at all.
Boise State’s main claim is that it put up a great fight in a 34-27 loss at Oregon – the Broncos’ last win over an at-the-time Power Four program was against Florida State at the start of the 2019 season. But this year, more than ever in a transfer portal/NIL era, nasty schedules matter.
The 32-7 win at Western Michigan was terrific, and beating Memphis was strong, but the defense is struggling a bit, and quarterback Maddux Madsen suffered a knee injury in the 46-45 win over Texas State on Saturday.
And that’s sort of the issue. It was a great gut-check win for the Broncos on Saturday after blowing a 28-3 halftime lead, but the defense wasn’t even close in the second half against a Bobcat team that lost to a San Diego State squad decimated by injuries and a team outbreak of the mumps, and lost to Texas 59-7.
This is all setting up for November 14th when a dangerous Oregon State team comes to Boise. The Broncos are still the favorite to get that CFP spot, but they almost blew it on Saturday night, and if there’s a slip, there’s a team down in Albuquerque, New Mexico, waiting to pounce.