BLOOMINGTON — Let me tell you a secret.

A Big Ten secret. A Big Ten beat writer's secret. Every year, when we start pulling together tiebreaker scenarios and conference tournament brackets, and we look smart and knowledgeable?

We're cheating.

See, there is this helpful site that does it for us. I don't know who operates the site, which is called mred, but bless that person or those people to the end of the earth, because they provide a tremendous service. Especially in times like this.

There's roughly a month of football remaining before what will likely be the last Big Ten football championship game ever, and we still have no clue who we'll see in Indianapolis. Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers are in good (but not great) shape for a return to the league showpiece. Moving parts around them still complicate their path.

It's not practical to game out every scenario here. But as we take a collective bye-week breath, we can look at some potential paths, and the broad strokes of what might be possible for Indiana in the coming month. With the help of our friends at mred, that's exactly what we're going to do.

Chalk holds

Let's start with the most basic scenario. When you first open the mred generator, it defaults to picking the likely favorite in each remaining game. Hit send on that scenario, and you wind up with a tiebreaker that looks like this:

  1. UCLA (12-0, 9-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-2, 8-1)
  3. Indiana (11-1, 8-1)

For the purposes of this conversation, we won't go any further than the specific title-game implications, so this simulation stops at three. Ohio State owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with IU and gets the spot in Indianapolis, opposite undefeated UCLA.

But what if the Bruins lose a game?

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UCLA gets upset

Let's say it happens this weekend at Minnesota. Otherwise, results hold, creating a three-way tie for the top spot in the conference and a logjam on the road to Indianapolis.

In that case, things get interesting, fast. That scenario looks like this:

  1. Indiana (11-1, 8-1)
  2. UCLA (11-1, 8-1)
  3. Ohio State (10-2, 8-1)

Why? Here's the text of the explanation from the generator itself:

"With UCLA, above Ohio St based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Above UCLA based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (4-0). TOP TWO TIEBREAKER: Above UCLA based on record vs. common conference opponents all played one time (4-0)."

That's what puts Indiana on top. UCLA slots in second because of its hypothetical loss to Minnesota. Ohio State falls to third because of its loss to USC, a team we're presuming UCLA and Indiana each beat (both still have to play the Trojans), locking the Buckeyes out on record vs. common conference opponents.

So then, what if UCLA loses not to Minnesota but to USC? Then Ohio State goes 1, Indiana 2 and UCLA 3. Why? Again, it gets confusing. Ohio State is no longer penalized for its loss to Southern Cal in this scenario. Indiana clears UCLA on common opponents, while Ohio State beats out the Bruins on conference opponent win percentage. Ohio State technically wins the two-way tiebreaker with Indiana on head-to-head, and they rematch in Indianapolis.

Ah, but what if UCLA's one loss comes to Michigan? The Bruins are left out, because in this simulation, Ohio State beats the Wolverines, and UCLA does not.

Confused? Us too. Let's make it even more complicated.

Two-loss chaos

Let's assume Indiana and Ohio State each lose at least one more game.

Set aside UCLA for this run, because we have enough to contend with as is. Just to make things clean enough to manage, we'll have IU losing to Southern Cal, and the Buckeyes to Northwestern, common opponents between them.

Chalk elsewhere brings two more teams, Wisconsin and Iowa, into the tiebreaker. The top five then looks like this:

  1. UCLA (12-0, 9-0)
  2. Ohio State (9-3, 7-2)
  3. Wisconsin (9-3, 7-2)
  4. Indiana (10-2, 7-2)
  5. Iowa (9-3, 7-2)

UCLA gets the top seed on record. Ohio State comes second because of conference opponent win percentage, which essentially means Ohio State gets the spot in Indianapolis because it will have played the toughest conference schedule. The next three are broken up by a series of tiebreakers.

That generally holds, regardless of the teams involved. Get Northwestern involved, by beating Iowa this weekend in Evanston and thus removing the Hawkeyes, and you trade one two-win team for another, but Ohio State's conference opponent win percentage still takes precedent.

Ah, but what if USC beats UCLA in the last weekend of the season? Then the top five becomes a top six, and looks like this:

  1. UCLA
  2. USC
  3. Ohio State
  4. Wisconsin
  5. Indiana
  6. Iowa

We can do this all day.

Plenty of football left

The bottom line is, there's a lot still to sift through. And some of these results will naturally resolve themselves.

Ohio State, for example, has games remaining against Oregon and Northwestern, which could eliminate a pair of two-loss teams or hand the Buckeyes a second loss while opening the door for another two-loss team.

UCLA could run aground in its next two road games, at Minnesota and at Michigan, and complicate this further.

Indiana could lose its next two and be effectively eliminated on its own.

Drawing straight lines to Indianapolis on Nov. 5 is effectively impossible. As ever, Indiana's best path is simply to keep winning, and hope parity and chaos elsewhere in the conference keeps the door open all the way to Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec. 5.

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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: How Indiana football can make Big Ten championship game: Evaluating scenarios

Source: Yahoo Sports