Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Wisconsin Badgers Game Preview

This Saturday, the 5-2 Iowa Hawkeyes are back at home in Kinnick Stadium to take on the 5-2 Wisconsin Badgers in the Battle for the Heartland Trophy.

The Badgers, whose only losses are to ranked teams, are trending in the right direction while Iowa, which just lost to a mediocre Minnesota, is trending in the wrong direction.

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Hawkeyes going into this game. The team that embarrassed itself against the Gophers would lose to the Badgers and probably all the rest of the teams on its schedule. On the other hand, the team that showed up three weeks ago against the Washington Huskies would compete with the Badgers and have a reasonable chance of running the rest of the schedule.

My guess is that the Hawkeyes that show up this week and for the rest of the year will be somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.

3 Questions

Will the Hawkeyes Bounce Back?

It is hard to remember Iowa looking more lackluster, more undisciplined, against an inferior opponent than it looked against Minnesota. It did almost everything it could to hand the game to the Gophers. The offense, to a man, looked unprepared. The special teams was uneven with a couple of huge gaffes. The defense did enough to win, but even Iowa’s vaunted defense had at least two notable breakdowns.

This game against the Badgers is important not only for Iowa’s record, not only to preserve its slim playoff hopes, but it will also say what this team is made of.

After a performance like the one against Minnesota, when everything was in the line, it would be easy enough for the Hawkeyes to give up on the season. On the other hand, they could also look adversity in the face and come out swinging.

If the Hawkeyes show up flat again, it is entirely possible the season could spiral. Either way, there is a lot to answer for this week.

Can Iowa Play a Clean Game?

Iowa currently ranks 40th in the NCAA in penalty-yards-per-game. That’s not terrible, but in 2025 the Hawkeyes were third. 2024: third. 2023 and 2022: fifth. 2021: sixth. 2020: 14th. You get the idea. Interestingly, the last time Iowa didn’t finish the season in the top 25 of fewest penalty yards was 2015 when they went undefeated, but the 2026 Hawkeyes decidedly don’t have CJ Beathard at quarterback.

The larger point is that Iowa plays clean football. It is a hallmark of the program under Kirk Ferentz, and this incarnation of the Iowa Hawkeyes has not played clean football. It was evident against Minnesota, but it’s been evident all season.

And then there’s turnover margin. After the garbage that was the Minnesota game, Iowa finds itself 80th in the country with a turnover margin of -1.

The reality is Iowa can’t sustain undisciplined, sloppy play. It can’t give the opposing team free drives. It can’t give the opposing team free yards.

More than anything else, that needs to be cleaned up, and it needs to be cleaned up before anything else. As long as that is part of this team’s DNA, it’s not going to win football games.

Who is the Quarterback and Can He Finish the Game?

You’ve seen, and/or made your feelings known on the message boards. Hank Brown should have started, Jeremy Hecklinski should have never been benched, Heck should have come back in after Brown proved ineffective, etc. I have my opinions, but I don’t know if it’s the right choice any more than any of the others.

What I do know is that Brown has had approximately five bad quarters in a row absent one drive. And against Minnesota, Heck was in his own head, making terrible decisions and starting to spiral. In short, Iowa seems to have two pretty poor quarterbacks that it has to decide between. Maybe that’s why Ferentz has been so reticent to commit to one.

Whomever the quarterback is, he doesn’t need to be the second coming of Tom Brady. For the first time in a long time, Iowa has playmakers at receiver, not to mention the usual array of solid tight ends.

All the quarterback has to do is make the makeables. When he has an open tight end in the seam on third-and-6, he has to hit him. When he has a receiver heading toward the end zone with five steps on his defender, he cannot underthrow him and give the defensive back a chance. He can’t throw into double coverage. He can’t hold the ball too long and take sacks.

Given the running game, or lack thereof, a lot of weight is on the quarterback’s shoulders, maybe too much. But with a good defense, all he has to do is consistently make the makeables.

2 Things to Watch

Turnovers

Iowa fumbled five times vs Minnesota. Five?!?! Four were official and one didn’t count due to a penalty. Okay, five was probably an anomaly, but at least one part of that equation is not an anomaly.

Evan James, the punt returner, who fumbled the one against Minnesota that was called back due to a penalty, has fumbled three punts this season. He has fielded 32 punts. That means he’s fumbling at a rate of almost 10% of his punts. Call me crazy but that is too much. I might be misremembering but I can swear Kirk Ferentz took Desmond King (Thorpe Award winner Desmond King!) off punt duties for flubbing a punt once during his sophomore year. Evan James has three fumbles, and he is still listed as the starting punt returner against Wisconsin. I’m all for Ferentz changing his approach to coaching here and there, but I don’t think his leniency with fumbleitis is a positive development.

It’s hard to predict interceptions as the quarterback situation is still a bit hazy, but assuming it’s Hank Brown, he did avoid the interception bug through the first four games, but since, he threw one against OSU and two against Minnesota.

Then there’s the defense. Look, the defense has done enough to win games—it certainly did enough against Minnesota—but it hasn’t been generating a high number of turnovers. The Iowa defense has generated three interceptions against five Power-Four opponents this year. All of them have been by senior cornerback Deshaun Lee who, as I noted last week, is the only member of the secondary who is meeting the admittedly lofty expectations of an Iowa defensive back.

This is a good week to generate turnovers as Wisconsin doesn’t have a very good offense, and quarterback Colton Jones, though he is dangerous with his legs, is not a good passer. Jones has thrown five interceptions, but none in the last three games. However, that’s largely because he hasn’t put the ball in the air very much in the past three games, only averaging 16.7 attempts per game. The opportunities for interceptions should be there if Iowa can put the Badgers in a position where they have to throw the ball.

I’ve already said that Iowa had to play a clean game. That includes winning the turnover battle.

The Offensive Gameplan

Iowa has played five Power-Four opponents. It has been able to run successfully and consistently against one of them. With a 20% success rate, I am going to assume Iowa will not be able to run the football using its base offense until proven otherwise. This is especially true after the announcement that starting tailback Kamari Moulton is out for the season.

But the offense still needs to move the ball. Offenses typically have a play that the entire offense is built around. It’s not the home run play or a play saved for special occasions. It’s a bread-and-butter play that is run 5-15 times a game, is safe and nets consistent and dependable yardage.

For Iowa, that play has historically been the inside zone, but it’s not working, and as the Hawkeyes can’t depend on big chunk plays through the passing game, they will need a play to build the offense around.

So what’s it going to be? Sweeps to the receivers, the screen game, the read option? None of it’s ideal and it’s not possible for Iowa to just scrap the inside zone, the foundation of its offense, in the middle of the season. However, running into a wall 5-10 times a game and averaging 1-2 yards per carry is not a winning formula, especially when the quarterbacks don’t seem capable of carrying the offense on their shoulders.

1 Crazy Prediction

I predict Iowa won’t fumble the ball five times. Sounds like a pretty gutless prediction until you look at last week.

But my serious prediction is that the Hawkeyes generate a non-offensive touchdown. Special teams? Maybe they keep the pick-6 streak alive? In truth, I think they might need it to win because I have no faith in this offense against a good Badger defense.

Go Hawks!