Lane Kiffin’s Slim SEC Chances Slip Away as Alabama vs. LSU Results in Tigers’ CFP Slump

Lane Kiffin’s first season in Baton Rouge took its biggest hit yet on Saturday. Alabama went into Tiger Stadium and beat LSU 31-13. The loss drops the Tigers to 6-3 (3-3 SEC), and for the first time this season, it’s fair to ask whether LSU will be in the College Football Playoff at all.

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According to the PFN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), LSU’s CFP chances fell by more than 20 percentage points after this loss. The Tigers came into the day at slightly better than a coin flip, and they now need a lot to go right.

The SEC title picture is even simpler. LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC Championship Game went from 16.7% to 2.2%. Three conference losses in a nine-game SEC schedule mostly ends a team’s title hopes, and that’s where LSU is now.

Kiffin’s path to Atlanta is effectively gone.

I’d also argue their current CFP number is generous. A three-loss LSU team with two road games left doesn’t look like a team the committee will want to include, even if they have the proverbial resume-building games on their schedule.

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LSU had chances in this game and didn’t take them. Sam Leavitt moved the offense between the 20s for much of the day, but the Tigers kept stalling near the goal line. A 4th & 4 throw from the Alabama 9 was batted down, and another fourth-down try from the Alabama 36 fell incomplete.

Leavitt also threw an interception in the final minute of the first half, which kept LSU at 10-3 going into the break instead of tied.

LSU did take a 13-10 lead in the third quarter, and Tiger Stadium got loud, as it’s prone to do. But, it lasted about two minutes.

Keelon Russell, playing on a heavily taped ankle, hit Rico Scott for a 57-yard catch-and-run on the next play and found Josh Ford for the go-ahead touchdown soon after. Russell then threw a 25-yard touchdown to Cederian Morgan with 9:44 left, which put Alabama up two scores and effectively ended the game.

Remaining LSU Football Schedule

• vs. Texas Longhorns
• at Tennessee Volunteers
• at Arkansas Razorbacks

There’s no break in the schedule. Kiffin’s team has to recover quickly, because Texas comes to Baton Rouge next week, and a loss there would end LSU’s playoff hopes completely.

After that, LSU finishes with two road games. The Tigers are 1-2 in SEC road games this season. They fell 32-24 at Ole Miss in Kiffin’s emotional return to Oxford and lost 35-34 at Kentucky, so a trip to Knoxville in late November is no gimme.

The Arkansas finale should be the most winnable of the three games, but by then LSU’s playoff hopes may already be decided.

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The math is simple, even if the path isn’t. LSU has to win out, finish 9-3, and then hope the committee values its schedule more than its losses. Those proverbial resume-building wins would come against Texas and Tennessee. Even then, it’s a head-to-head with what would likely be two other 3-loss SEC teams in Texas and Tennessee, a game in which Texas beat Tennessee earlier in the year, giving the committee a “split” in terms of the head-to-head with the trio.

Hence, even winning out might not be enough. LSU hired Kiffin, and paid him, to win games like this one.

In his first year the Tigers have lost two of their biggest games, and their CFP hopes now depend on what happens elsewhere.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.