LSU vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions, Odds: Our Best Bets for College Football Week 10

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The No. 14 LSU Tigers (6-2, 3-2 SEC) take on the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2, 4-2) in a top-15 SEC showdown on Saturday, Nov. 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Both teams are coming off a bye, and both went into it on a high note after midseason stumbles.

LSU blanked Mississippi State, 31-0, for its first shutout of a conference opponent since 2007, capping a run of four wins in five games. Alabama, meanwhile, snapped a two-game skid by beating Texas A&M, 31-20, behind 311 passing yards and three touchdowns from Keelon Russell.

Alabama has won three straight in this series, but LSU enters as a -6 favorite in Death Valley with the over/under set at 52.5. So, who holds the advantage in the final annual edition of this SEC rivalry?

We polled 12 of our college football experts to get their takes on the spread and total, so let’s dive into our LSU vs Alabama picks and college football predictions for Saturday, November 7.

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LSU vs. Alabama Spread Pick

Our Staff’s Pick: LSU -6

By Alex Kolodziej

LSU is the hot side for Week 10. The Tigers capture 75% of the Action staff’s votes in one of the multitude of ranked games this Saturday.

Alabama and LSU profile similarly on the surface entering Saturday: 6-2 overall, identical 4-4 ATS splits, and a much better track record to the over.

If you’ve been following PRO Report this weekend, LSU’s been attracting all sorts of smart signals.

First off, top Action experts spearhead the charge on LSU.

The BBOC guys like the Tigers, noting a handful of matchup elements. Stuckey pointed out how Alabama’s offense is getting exposed as the season progresses, and how LSU’s defense profiles similarly to Tennessee, which also played into a pick on the Vols against the Tide a couple of weeks ago.

Collin Wilson (+31.3u this season) thinks this is one of the cleanest reads on the board: Fade Alabama against a havoc-wreaking defense.

The Tide average 6.3 yards per play this season, but just 5.0 over the last three as the explosives have been taken away.

Also, this simply isn’t the same Tide defense we’re accustomed to seeing. They rank 134th in red-zone efficiency. 27 opposing drives inside the 20, 26 scores.

This figures to give Lane Kiffin’s offense a massive edge if they can move the ball, which they have when comfortable: 6.4 yards per play at home against 5.7 on the road.

The line’s climbing, despite Alabama getting flooded with tickets in Action’s public betting data. Sharp action is instead hitting LSU, in a classic case of the unpopular side catching the bulk of respected action.

There’s lots of sharp support for the home team in a high-profile SEC clash.

LSU vs. Alabama Over/Under Pick

Our Staff’s Pick: Over 52.5

By Alex Kolodziej

It’s a play on the over in Baton Rouge Saturday night.

LSU’s offense is finally rounding into form. Receiver drops are down, Sam Leavitt’s interceptions are decreasing, and Lane Kiffin can finally get in his bag against a defense that can get beat deep. Alabama’s secondary ranks outside the top-100 nationally in yards per completion allowed (12.6).

Alabama’s offense, meanwhile, may have hit a roadblock. But it’s more or less a rough patch than a personnel issue.

Keelon Russell’s still heaving the ball downfield. He’s posting 9.3 yards per attempt, which leads the SEC, and more than 2,000 yards through the air. If LSU builds an early lead, this can turn into a high-variance matchup with oodles of explosive plays.

Alabama was an ‘under’ team last year (10-5). This year, the Tide have finished over the total in six of eight games. Some of the combined scores feature gaudy point totals of 86, 79, 67 and 62.

Easy red-zone trips for LSU and lots of deep-ball chucking from Russell could turn Baton Rouge into a track meet Saturday.

Jackson Harris Anytime Touchdown (+135 · Play to +110)

By Alex Hinton

Lane Kiffin explored all avenues (some controversial) to upgrade LSU’s roster in the offseason, bringing in 44 transfers, including nine pass catchers. Of that group, Jackson Harris has begun to emerge as WR1 of late.

For the season, Harris has 36 receptions and leads the team with 634 yards and seven touchdowns. Many of those touchdowns have come over the last five games, scoring in four of them and each of the last three.

The stretch began when star tight end Trey’Dez Green was injured in the second half against Ole Miss and missed the next three games. He returned against Auburn and scored, but Harris found the end zone twice before adding another two touchdowns last week.

Alabama poses a more formidable challenge defensively than Mississippi State or Auburn, but it can be had through the air. It ranks 89th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 102nd in Passing Explosiveness. That is not a great combination when facing a quarterback who is averaging 32 passing attempts per game this season.

When Sam Leavitt is not running it in himself, he is usually looking for Harris or Green. At +135, Harris is the one I will be backing this week.

LSU vs. Alabama Odds