SEC Football Week 11 Predictions: Picks for Every Game

There’s no hard and fast rule that the College Football Playoff can’t pick an at-large 9-3 team over a 10-2 team from a Power Four conference, but it’s never happened before. You’re on your own if you want to risk it.
However, several SEC teams will be in CFP mix even with a third loss, but the freakout will come if Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and/or Kentucky get that third hit. Even worse, it’s over if any of the three-loss teams – South Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss, or Missouri – lose. Here are our quick previews and predictions for every SEC game.
– Predictions: ACC | Big Ten

SEC Week 11 Previews, Predictions

SEC Week 11 Quick Hits

• Texas at LSU is the highest-profile SEC game of the week, but Missouri at Georgia could become a 2026 season-changer if the Tigers come up with something big.
• It’s a dangerous week for Alabama and Tennessee, going on the road to deal with desperate Mississippi State and Vanderbilt teams, respectively.
• The pressure will mostly be on Kentucky. It dropped big in the CFP after loss to Tennessee, and it can’t afford a loss to Florida.

Jump to Each Quick Preview
– Auburn at Mississippi State
– Alabama at Vanderbilt
– Tennessee at Texas A&M
– Ole Miss at Oklahoma
– Florida at Kentucky
– South Carolina at Arkansas

Auburn at Mississippi State: Can the Tigers Avoid the Bulldog Trap Game?

Game Time: 12:00 PM ET | TV: ESPN2
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
The best thing to happen to Mississippi State during a five-game losing streak is the announced signing and return of star quarterback Kamario Taylor for next year. The Bulldog defense has been great, but the offense isn’t moving well enough to push past a decent D.
Auburn might be working too hard, but the defensive front is great at getting into the backfield and should come up with just enough big stops late to hold off a late Bulldog rally in a terrific game.
Prediction: Auburn 27, Mississippi State 24
Consensus Line: Auburn -2.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence: 3 | Must See: 3

Alabama at Vanderbilt: Letdown Alert For the Crimson Tide

Game Time: 12:45 PM ET | TV: SEC Network
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
No. 3 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, Alabama has love from the committee, and now it just has to finish the drill with Chattanooga and Auburn to close. First, it has to take down a Vanderbilt team that finally came up with its first SEC win of the season, beating Mississippi State 25-23.
Alabama might not be its sharpest out of the gate – a hangover effect from the 31-13 win at LSU – but just when it seems like this might be interesting, the Commodore turnovers will come. Bama will convert off all three turnovers it generates.
Prediction: Alabama 37, Vanderbilt 17
Consensus Line: Alabama -18.5, o/u: 50.5
ATS Confidence: 3 | Must See: 2.5

Tennessee at Texas A&M: The Volunteer Gauntlet Continues

Game Time: 3:00 PM ET | TV: ESPN
Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Over the last few years, SEC fans have liked to use the word gauntlet when it comes to some teams’ tough schedules. In Tennessee’s case, the term applies, facing Alabama (CFP No. 3), South Carolina (CFP No. 17), and Kentucky (CFP No. 11) in the last three games, and with LSU up next after what qualifies as a week off at Texas A&M.
The Aggies have been brutally close to finally pulling off something meaningful, but it’s 1-5 in the SEC after a heartbreaking loss at South Carolina.
The defense that can’t generate a sack will have a hard time on third downs, but it’ll be a tough effort at home that comes just short against a Volunteer defense that continues to take the ball away in bunches.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 20
Consensus Line: Tennessee -2.5, o/u: 44.5
ATS Confidence: 2 | Must See: 3.5

Missouri at Georgia

Game Time: 3:30 PM ET | TV: ABC
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Prediction: Full CFN Game Preview and Prediction
Consensus Line: Georgia -14.5, o/u: 47

Ole Miss at Oklahoma: Will the Rebels Get Their Groove Back?

Game Time: 4:15 PM ET | TV: SEC Network
Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
There’s nothing like seeing Georgia run out of the tunnel in your ballpark and watching it conduct a light scrimmage. Ole Miss didn’t have any answers in a 42-7 loss to the CFP No. 1 team last week, and now it has to go on a roll to have any prayer of being considered for a high ranking by the playoff committee.
Oklahoma continues its schizophrenic season, following every win with a loss. The defense was brilliant in a 23-7 win over Florida, but it won’t have the same luck against an Ole Miss offense that needs to stop turning the ball over.
Star Rebel running back Kewan Lacy is out for the season, but Trinidad Chambliss will bounce back from his rough day against the Bulldogs with a sharp day. Too many decent Oklahoma drives will end up with field goals.
Prediction: Ole Miss 23, Oklahoma 19
Consensus Line: Oklahoma -1.5, o/u: 49.5
ATS Confidence: 2.5 | Must See: 3.5

Florida at Kentucky: Can the Wildcats Stay in the CFP Chase?

Game Time: 6:15 PM ET | TV: ESPN
Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
CFP No. 11 Kentucky is still 7-2, with a playoff spot almost certainly for the taking if it can beat Missouri and Louisville. It has to get past the ugly 34-6 loss to Tennessee last week and keep its Florida groove going. The Wildcats have won four of the last five in the series. Before that, the Gators went 32-1 going back to 1986.
It’s all about the ground game with the Gators. They’re 5-0 when running for over 120 yards, and 0-4 when running for that many or fewer. Kentucky got rumbled over by Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama. It’s about to get hit by a good day from the Gators as they rebound big after last week.
Prediction: Florida 28, Kentucky 24
Consensus Line: Kentucky -3.5, o/u: 52.5
ATS Confidence: 1.5 | Must See: 4

Texas at LSU

Game Time: 7:30 PM ET | TV: ABC
Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Prediction: Full CFN Game Preview and Prediction
Consensus Line: LSU -4.5, o/u: 46.5

South Carolina at Arkansas: Shhhhhh, the Gamecocks Are In This

Game Time: 7:45 PM ET | TV: SEC Network
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Don’t get totally caught up in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Soon, there will be big arguments about several three-loss teams and how worthy they might be. South Carolina started 2-3, but it’s rolling with a four-game winning streak. That’s not why the CFP No. 17 team has reason to dream of finishing in the top 12.
Next week? Georgia. Beat the No. 1 team, drop Clemson, and all of a sudden, there will be a discussion. First, it has to get by a plucky Arkansas team that’s far better than the 3-6 record might indicate.
Nothing comes easy for the Gamecocks. Star quarterback LaNorris Sellers is banged up, but he’s expected to go. Fortunately for 16, Arkansas doesn’t have a pass rush to get to him. As long as Sellers is sniffing around a 65% completion rate, the Gamecocks will get through another grind of a game, and then it’s on to the Bulldogs.
Prediction: South Carolina 26, Arkansas 17
Consensus Line: South Carolina -7.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS Confidence: 3 | Must See: 3

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.