Texas Tech expert previews the Arizona football game, makes a score prediction

College football has one of the longest offseasons of any sport, which lends itself to certain players and teams generating a lot of hype and attention. Texas Tech falls squarely in that category, as its seemingly unlimited resources thanks to billionaire booster Cody Campbell made it a go-to place for top transfers out of the portal.

But that also led to the ill-fated acquisition of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who after leaving Cincinnati for Tech was revealed to have bet on college sports. Sorsby was banned by the NCAA, later reinstated, but the backlash led to him leaving the program before ever playing a game.

Despite that, Tech was unbeaten before losing last week, dropping to No. 13 in the AP poll and into a tie for second place in the Big 12 with, among other teams, Arizona. That in effect makes Saturday’s matchup an unofficial elimination game for the conference title race.

To better understand the Red Raiders, we reached out to Seth Jungman of Staking the Plains for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his eloquent answers to our inarticulate questions:

AZ Desert Swarm: Outside of the irony of the first loss coming to Cincinnati, what were the biggest contributors to Texas Tech falling from the ranks of the unbeatens?

Seth Jungman: “It’s the thing that I think Texas Tech fans have known, but maybe the national media wasn’t paying attention. I think most fans have known that the offense simply wasn’t very good and the defense isn’t as good as it was last year. Will Hammond is fine, but there’s a reason why the staff went out to get Brendan Sorsby before the season. They knew he probably wasn’t ready, but things happened and here we are. Also, I think it’s incredibly evident that the players who were part of this defense last year were truly special, particularly Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey, and Romello Height. Getting to the quarterback to wreck offenses was the cheat code last year and this year, that’s simply not happening.”

It’s fair to say that Will Hammond was not the first choice to lead this offense. How do you think he has performed to this point? What are his best attributes and where does he lack most?

“I thought last week against Arizona State he took a step forward, but against Cincinnati he took two steps back. His best attributes is that he is a natural leader and he wants the ball in his hands and he wants to be the guy. My biggest problem with him is that I think he makes bad game management decisions. Knowing that the team needs points, he’ll heave the ball towards the end zone with a low chance of completion rather than take the play that keeps the drive alive. His lack of understanding of knowing when to take chances and when to churn yards is what bothers me the most.”

What is the likelihood that Cameron Dickey will be back for this game? How would that impact the run game and the way J’Koby Williams, who has run for 680 yards and five touchdowns, get used?

“I think chances are very good that he returns. It’s been about four weeks from the dreaded high-ankle sprain and that’s about the time. I don’t think it was a bad sprain so this game would seem about right and he was out doing some drills this past week. What Dickey offers is a guy that’s going to bruise and batter the opposing defense while Williams will break a 40-yard run in what looks like a lost play. Quinten Joyner has tried to fill that roll for Dickey, but it’s not the same. Joyner is coming off of ACL surgery and he doesn’t have the same burst he had at USC. I think the staff will likely get back to that Dickey-Williams rotation as soon as possible.”

Texas Tech is second in FBS in passes intercepted (13) but has also given up 16 TD passes and is ranked third-worst in the Big 12 in pass defense. How do you expect the defense to try and stop Noah Fifita?

“As mentioned above, the Texas Tech defense last year was getting to the quarterback so quickly that teams simply could not function offensively. This year . . . not so much. Fifita has rounded out to be such a good quarterback, I truly expect him to have a very good day. There’s almost no difference between his home and road stats, three picks on the road and just one at home, and he’s throwing for nearly 300 yards every time he steps on the field. That’s the kind of consistency that you expect from a senior and with Fifita’s ability to run to keep the defense honest, I expect him to do what he’s done all year long.”

Who are the top defensive players that Arizona has to be most concerned with?

“Defensive tackle AJ Holmes is an absolute unit and there aren’t a ton of defensive tackles that truly rush the passer, but he’s one of them. The linebacking corps is incredibly solid with Ben Roberts, John Curry and Austin Romaine. I’ll also add in Brice Pollock at cornerback. The pass defense is struggling a bit, but he’s a solid cornerback that can make plays.”

Considering all the money that was spent on this team, and all the national attention it has brought on itself—thanks, Cody Campbell!—does it feel like the season is on the line in this game? How do you expect Tech to respond to that last performance?

“As you have already recognized, this team is a quarterback short of maybe what it could have been. I try not to involve myself in the offseason drama. The whole thing was a mess and handled poorly. I think we’ve all moved on, but I know it still lingers and I think that Sorsby would have made a significant difference in the offense. For what Joey McGuire preaches, yes, the season is on the brink because the goal is to win the Big 12 and make the playoffs. I don’t know that a Big 12 team with two losses makes the playoff and I also don’t think that a 2-loss Big 12 team makes the championship.

“I do expect Texas Tech to play much better than what they did against Cincinnati and I think it will be a much more competitive game. I also realize that Arizona’s defense is no joke and the Texas Tech offense has really only played well against defenses that aren’t very good. The offense and defense for the Red Raiders have a lot to prove against Arizona.”

Prediction time. Does Arizona end the Red Raiders’ 12-game home win streak and continue its push toward the Big 12 title game or does Texas Tech get back on track? Give us a score pick.

“My gut tells me that this will be an incredibly close game and Vegas thinks so as well. With a touchdown advantage, the line now sits at Texas Tech -3.5. I tend to agree, that despite the flaws that were on display against Cincinnati, I think Texas Tech does win the game, but I’d take Arizona and those points. Something like 37-34 is what I see the final score being.”