Texas Tech vs. Arizona Final Score Predictions: Can Joey McGuire & Red Raiders bounce back, or will Noah Fifita's dynamic QB play dominate?

Quarterback Will Hammond must step up for Texas Tech or Noah Fifita and the Arizona Wildcats are going to effectively end the Red Raiders season

The Big 12 Conference Championship and a possible path to the College Football Playoff are both up for grabs this weekend as Texas Tech faces off against Arizona.
The Red Raiders are fresh off a frustrating loss to Cincinnati, and Joey McGuire may be fighting for his post-2026 job in this matchup. Noah Fifita has been extremely solid at quarterback this year (unlike Texas Tech’s Will Hammond), but will that really be enough to win for Arizona?
Our A to Z Sports team of college football staff took a dive into both teams to see how this massive game most likely plays out. Let’s get into it.

Texas Tech 30, Arizona 27

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a must-win territory after posting a pathetic showing last week against Cincinnati. The Will Hammond mirage was always going to fade at quarterback, as he’s struggled to throw more touchdowns than interceptions this year, but the rest of the team around him is still stacked.
Arizona has looked like a legitimate Big 12 contender all year long, except for when they play the best of the best (losing big to BYU in September). Noah Fifita is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country with nearly 50 games played now. He’s been on fire, throwing for nearly 20 touchdowns in Arizona’s first seven games and posting the 16th best QB efficiency profile in the nation.
However, Texas Tech’s rush defense has been elite this year (where Arizona has succeeded greatly in recent weeks), ranking 14th among power conference team in rush success allowed (last week being their only bad game there). The Red Raiders also have the edge in rushing on offense. If Texas Tech can just contain or limit Fifita’s aerial attack even half as much as BYU did, that will be enough to hold off a late-game comeback attempt, winning 30-27 over the Wildcats.
– Travis May, College Football Managing Editor

Arizona 34, Texas Tech 31

The Big 12 is low-key the best conference in the country this year. The top of the conference is both excellent and underrated, with plenty of impressive teams. This is how people talk about the SEC, but they deserve a lot more attention. Houston vs. Utah Saturday night was an epic faceoff. There have been tough games between top tier Big 12 teams all year.

This is a very even matchup, with Arizona ranking 26th in adjusted EPA per play and the Red Raiders ranking 27th. The one area that has me leaning Arizona is their consistent offensive success rate (reaching the necessary percentage of yards to gain a first down on a per play basis). The Wildcats are good at sustaining drives. That will be the difference, as they take down Texas Tech and get Cody Campbell tweeting up a storm.
– Tyler Forness, A to Z Florida

Arizona 34, Texas Tech 31

This is a somewhat tough game to figure out, as both teams had been on relative hot streaks going into last Saturday before Texas Tech got handled by Cincinnati 37-24. The Bearcats rolled up 427 total yards, with 255 team rushing yards and four touchdown passes by JC French IV.
Arizona isn’t going to run the ball down your throat; they average 148.6 yards per game, good for 82nd in FBS. But Wildcats QB Noah Fifita is on a bit of a run right now. Since a Week 2 loss to BYU, Fifita has averaged over 300 yards passing per game with multiple passing touchdowns in a five-game winning streak.
Fifita leads the Wildcats to a quick start in Lubbock and a double-digit lead. The Red Raiders fight their way back to a fourth quarter lead, but a last minute drive from Fifita pulls off a massive road win for Arizona.
– Craig Smith, A to Z Miami

Texas Tech 31, Arizona 21

Texas Tech gets back in the win column with a 31-21 victory over Arizona, but the Red Raiders will have to work for it. Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita makes several big plays to keep his team in the game, using his arm to create explosive opportunities and prevent Texas Tech from pulling away early. Arizona has enough success offensively to make things interesting, and the Wildcats should be able to take advantage of a few defensive lapses from the Red Raiders. Still, Texas Tech has the talent to put points on the board of its own, and its offense eventually starts to find its rhythm as the game progresses.

The difference comes in the second half, when Texas Tech's defense begins to settle in and make life much more difficult for Fifita and the Arizona offense. After allowing a few explosive plays early, the Red Raiders do a better job limiting the Wildcats' opportunities and forcing them to work for every yard. Arizona struggles to maintain that early momentum, while Texas Tech capitalizes on key possessions to build a two-score advantage. The Wildcats make a late push, but the Red Raiders do enough defensively to close things out. Texas Tech earns a much-needed 31-21 win and gets its season moving in the right direction again.
– Ryan Roberts, A to Z Notre Dame

Texas Tech 40, Arizona 37

After last week’s loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats, I have stuck all the forks in the 2026 Texas Tech Red Raiders. With BYU and Utah having much better wins and Tech playing the most cupcake-of-cupcakes schedules, their season should be over, in my opinion. That being said, Arizona is not the team that Tech is, from top to bottom, though they have a few players that could give Tech problems, and Noah Fifita is one of the more experienced and polished college quarterbacks in the sport.

I expect a shootout between these two sides. Tech will get back on track and make the plays needed to get the win at home.
– Rob Gregson, A to Z Alabama

Arizona 21, Texas Tech 17

Both of these teams are 6-1 this year. However, Texas Tech is coming off a huge loss to Cincinnati. And Arizona, well, they are just now getting the love they deserve from the National Media. Arizona's efficient passing offense will look to take on a decent matchup with Tech's efficient run game on both sides of the ball. The winner gets a significant boost to their College Football Playoff odds. And I have Arizona winning this one, solely because their offense and defense have been just as hot as they are as of late.
– Justin Churchill, A to Z Oklahoma

Final Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Arizona

Our staff is evenly split on this one. Three picks for Texas Tech. Three for Arizona. On average, our staff has Texas Tech winning this game 30-29. None of us expects either team to blow the other one out. Sportsbooks give the Red Raiders the edge by about a field goal, but the A to Z Sports crew believes it might even be closer than that, perhaps going to overtime. The winners stays in the Big 12 Conference Championship race. The loser likely sees their College Football Playoff hopes go up in flames.

This article was originally published on A to Z Sports. Read the full story here: Texas Tech vs. Arizona Final Score Predictions: Can Joey McGuire & Red Raiders bounce back, or will Noah Fifita's dynamic QB play dominate?

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