The Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 10

The first polls that actually matter are out! We were operating with AP Poll rankings for the first nine weeks, but now the actual, official, totally-bias-free College Football Playoff Committee Rankings are here! Last week, the Big Ten had quite the shakeup, both with actual upsets and near-upsets.

Now, with only four weeks left in the regular season, things are getting real. Will one of our “eliminated” teams have a path illuminated by the committee? How many teams will be situated in the 12-team field? Well, we got those answers on Tuesday night.

Was there anything else worth keeping an eye on on Tuesday?

The Big Ten College Football Playoff Picture: Week 10

Locks

N/A

Not quite time to crown anyone as a lock, but next week could be a locking scenario for one contender…right?

Contenders

#4 Indiana (8-1, 5-1)

Well, our leading Big Ten team in the standings is the one-loss Indiana Hoosiers. To this point, the Hoosiers haven’t quite looked as impressive as they did last year en route to the program’s first national championship. Even then, Indiana has eight wins for just the 11th time. Additionally, it’s the first time the Hoosiers have done so in three consecutive seasons.

Indiana is led by a couple of impressive running backs in Lee Beebe and Turbo Richard, but it needed a 60-yard field goal at the end of regulation to force overtime to survive a surprising Minnesota team. Josh Hoover was replaced by Grant Wilson, who promptly led the Hoosiers back to victory.

Indiana is in the driver’s seat to make the CFP, though there is still a world in which it does not get back to Indianapolis to try and go back-to-back.

#8 UCLA

The Bruins are the eighth-highest ranked team in the nation. The undefeated UCLA Bruins have matched the program’s highest CFP ranking in its history. And yet, it feels like Bob Chesney is just getting started.

Last week, UCLA had an odd non-conference matchup on Halloween with Nevada coming to town. Now, four weeks remain with three eliminated teams on the docket. Wayne Knight is one of, if not the best, running backs in the Big Ten, and his 12 touchdowns lead the way.

If UCLA gets to 10-0, it should be a lock. Of course, it wouldn’t have a marquee win to that point, unless you consider it to be Oregon. Dropping each of the final two games wouldn’t be fun, but crazier things have happened.

#12 Ohio State

Well, that wasn’t great.

With or without Julian Sayin, Ohio State did not play well enough at USC to get the win. Luke Fahey was fine; he wasn’t playing well enough to win the game for the Buckeyes, but he also didn’t lose the game, either. The issue, surprisingly, was the defense.

Ohio State allowed its first two plays of over 40 yards (as compared to a top-10 team that has allowed 10, but who are we to judge the committee?) in the loss to USC.

Ohio State allowed 30 points for the first time since that loss at Oregon in 2024.

There is a lot to fix for the Buckeyes. It cannot afford another loss. Ohio State may have a strong enough brand to be the first 9-3 team to make it (the path to the Big Ten Championship would be quite difficult with a second in-conference loss). But if it continues to look helpless, the Buckeyes could be watching the final 12-team College Football Playoff from home.

The Path Is There

#19 Iowa

We were ready to write off the Hawkeyes after they fell at Minnesota. Oddly enough, so were the AP Poll voters; Iowa fell from 15 to unranked despite the #QualityLoss. Then, Iowa turned everything on its head by throttling Wisconsin, this year’s most surprising team in the Big Ten.

The road ahead is not terrible for Iowa. This week, it travels to Northwestern. After that, the Hawkeyes get Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska.

If Iowa gets to 10-2, it’s likely in despite a real marquee victory. It has two wins over ranked teams (at the time of the game), but Michigan and Wisconsin are not likely going to rejoin the ranked crowd this year.

#20 USC

Another team we wrote off, USC did its own throttling of Ohio State.

We knew the Trojans’ offense was lethal. As it was, we were underselling it. Jayden Maiava and his offense looked good against what was expected to be a solid Ohio State defense.

Oddly enough, Ohio State out-gained USC 464-338, but the Trojan defense stood tall when it needed to.

Moving forward, things get tough. Of course, USC took down the second-ranked Buckeyes at home; beating sixth-ranked Indiana and eighth-ranked UCLA on the road is going to be tough. Of course, if USC can come off its bye week this week with three straight wins, it’ll be playing its best football of the year, thus impressing the committee.

Northwestern

Last week, the Wildcats fell at Oregon in surprising fashion. Everyone was rooting for Northwestern to surprise the Big Ten. Now, things look muddy.

Up next, Northwestern gets Iowa at home, then it travels to Ohio State. Both teams look quite beatable right now, but if we dabbled in those nonsensical prediction betting gambling apps that manage to avoid regulation, Northwestern would be “trading” at a low percentage to make it.

Eliminated

Yes, Oregon is still eliminated; no 9-3 team has ever made the CFP. Now, if Oregon wins out and plays in the Big Ten Championship, we will reconsider. Of course, a win this weekend would make us sweat a little…

The new faces to this tier were nice stories in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the schedule finally caught up to them.

• Rutgers (2-6, 1-4)
• Maryland (2-6, 0-5)
• Michigan State (2-6, 0-5)
• Purdue (3-5, 2-3)
• Penn State (4-4, 1-4)
• Illinois (5-3, 3-2)
• Minnesota (5-3, 3-2)
• Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2)
• Washington (5-3, 2-3)
• Michigan (5-3, 2-3)
• Nebraska (5-3, 2-3)
• #23 Oregon (5-3, 2-3)

Full Big Ten Week 10 Schedule

• Nebraska at Illinois (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
• #8 UCLA at Minnesota (12:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
• Maryland at Purdue (12:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• #23 Oregon at #12 Ohio State (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
• Penn State at Washington (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Rutgers at Wisconsin (4:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network)
• #19 Iowa at Northwestern (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
• Michigan State at Michigan (7:30 p.m. ET, Peacock)
• #4 Indiana: Idle
• #20 USC: Idle