Iowa football's showdown in Evanston against Northwestern is getting closer by the minute.

We've provided you with plenty of preview content so far, but now it's time for everyone's favorite Thursday article.

Here are three reasons why the Hawkeyes will beat the Wildcats - and three reasons they won't.

Why Iowa Will Win

Hank Brown is consistent: Brown hasn't had a lot of time to develop a rhythm as Iowa's starting quarterback because of the constant in-season carousel with Jeremy Hecklinski, but if there's a time for him to finally settle into the role, it's right now. Brown is coming off his best performance of the season against Wisconsin last Saturday, a performance that saw him complete 83% of his passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions. The fourth-year was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week as a result, becoming the first Iowa quarterback to receive the honor since Nate Stanley in 2018.

There's no question that the Hawkeyes need Brown to be at his best to take down Northwestern, but how does he maintain that consistency? I think it starts with getting the ball back in the hands of wide receiver Tony Diaz. The pair connected four times for 75 yards against Wisconsin, including a 45-yard bomb midway through the second quarter to set up Diaz's second receiving touchdown of the season.

Iowa's offense is better when Diaz is making plays, but watch out for tight end DJ Vonnahme and Reece Vander Zee to have opportunities, too. The Wildcats have yielded 219 passing yards per game in conference play, so we'll see if the Hawkeyes can keep the passing game rolling in Evanston.

Xavier Williams hangs on to the football: This one is an obvious one, but it has to be said. We mentioned Williams in our players to watch because of his fumbling problems against the Badgers. Williams fumbled twice in that game (one lost), and it goes without saying that Iowa can't afford to have its go-to back continue to do that in such a pivotal road game.

Keep Northwestern into third and long situations: We'll dive into Northwestern's offense in just a second, but here's your spoiler: it's going to be very tough for Phil Parker and Co. to solve. There's certainly a lot that needs to go right on the defensive side of the ball for Iowa to win this football game, but keeping the Wildcats in third and medium or third and long situations will greatly aid the Hawkeyes' chances of victory.

Why Iowa Will Lose

Aidan Chiles carves them up again: One would think Parker can craft up a successful scheme against this robust Northwestern offense because he probably still has nightmares from what Chiles did to his defense in 2024. Chiles and Michigan State were the definition of mediocre back then, but the struggling Chiles tossed 256 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns to engineer an upset win. Chiles never really found success again until moving to Northwestern this year, but it's safe to say he is a much better quarterback this year. He's been efficient (just one interception) and is extremely dangerous with his legs, both of which were on full display against the Hawkeyes two years ago.

It's worth mentioning that Chiles was listed as questionable on Wednesday night, but if he plays, Iowa has to learn from the mistakes it made two years ago.

Kelly's unique formations are too much: Few, if any, college football teams today have as unique of an offensive system like Northwestern. The Wildcats have certainly been explosive this year (averaging 33 points per game), but it's the way they go about things that makes this group so intriguing to watch. A good run game definitely helps, but when was the last time you saw the Wing-T offense as a regular formation in 2026? Not only does Northwestern use that, it also will sometimes line up a wideout 10-13 yards behind the line of scrimmage, a play that mimics arena football.

With safety Zach Lutmer and cornerback Jaylen Watson both listed as questionable as of Wednesday, Iowa's secondary could be in for a rough time if it can't solve these unique formations.

Iowa's see-saw of inconsistency on offense returns: We alluded to it already, but the Hawkeyes are truly on a roller coaster of offensive efficiency right now. The coaster is currently at the top of the hill after what we saw on Halloween, but just take a look at Iowa's last four games in league play: bad offense against Ohio State, great at Washington, horrible at Minnesota, really good against Wisconsin.

Which Iowa team is going to show up in Evanston? That's the million-dollar question right now, and if the inconsistent offense we've seen in conference play (especially against Minnesota) shows up against Northwestern, it could be a rough Saturday evening for the Hawkeyes.

Source: Yahoo Sports