Week 9 college football upset watch: Arizona, Clemson top road threats

No. 20 Northwestern visits Oregon as a 3.5-point underdog to headline college football’s Week 9 upset watch, one of six games where the underdog has a credible path to an outright win on Halloween.

The Wildcats (6-1) have won four straight games, while Oregon (4-3) fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer after a 21-10 loss at Illinois and won’t get quarterback Dante Moore back from his concussion this season.

MORE:Week 9 college football best bets: Northwestern, Wisconsin lead road-heavy card

How did Week 8’s upset picks fare?

Last week’s college football upset watch went 7-5 against the spread.

The six featured games went 3-3. Wyoming +5.5, West Virginia +10.5 and Boston College +5.5 covered, while Tennessee +2.5, North Dakota State +4.5 and Houston +6.5 didn’t. NDSU missed by half a point in a 21-16 loss.

The bonus list went 4-2. Michigan +7.5, UCF +7, Texas A&M +13.5 and Minnesota +7 covered, while Auburn +7 and San Jose State +6.5 did not.

Arizona (+3.5) at Texas Tech: Upset Watch 8.5

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, noon ET (ESPN)

No. 22 Arizona (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) has its best record since 2014 and sits a half-game behind No. 6 Utah in the conference race. No. 13 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1) lost for the first time last week, 37-24 at Cincinnati, after committing a season-high 12 penalties. Quarterback Will Hammond also lost a fumble and threw an interception.

Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire knows where Arizona’s offense starts. “That quarterback drives everything. He’s pretty special and Seth’s doing a great job,” McGuire said of Noah Fifita, the winningest quarterback in Arizona history. Wildcats offensive coordinator Seth Doege, a former Texas Tech quarterback, returns to Lubbock for this game.

Arizona coach Brent Brennan expects the trenches to decide it. “I think this is going to be a huge line of scrimmage game for us on both sides of the ball, and their defense is really impressive,” Brennan said.

Texas Tech leads the Big 12 with 13 interceptions and five pick-sixes, so Fifita has to protect the ball. Still, a Red Raiders team that beat itself with penalties last week gives an experienced quarterback room to win a close game on the road.

Picks: Arizona 27-24, Arizona +3.5, Under 54.5

Boston College (+7) at Duke: Upset Watch 7

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, noon ET (The CW)

Boston College (4-3, 2-2 ACC) has won two straight after rallying from early double-digit deficits in both games. Mason McKenzie ran for 170 yards and two touchdowns at Georgia Tech, and Bo MacCormack III added 155 rushing yards and three scores.

Duke (5-2, 2-2) snapped a two-game skid with a 19-16 win at Virginia, and it allows 107.1 rushing yards per game. Blue Devils coach Manny Diaz singled out the Eagles’ quarterback. “The quarterback might be the most dynamic player we’ve played against so far this year,” Diaz said.

Eagles coach Bill O’Brien, a former Duke offensive coordinator, respects what Diaz has built. “I think they’re well-coached. They’re tough. They’re disciplined,” O’Brien said.

Duke running back Nate Sheppard passed 2,000 career rushing yards in only 21 games, and BC allows 151.1 rushing yards per game. That matchup keeps Duke favored at home. But McKenzie’s legs give Boston College a way to control the clock and stay within a field goal.

Picks: Duke 27-24, Boston College +7, Over 46.5

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Northwestern (+3.5) at Oregon: Upset Watch 9.5

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)

Northwestern (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) beat Rutgers 42-14 last week as Aidan Chiles threw three touchdown passes and ran for two more. The Wildcats’ offense is run by Chip Kelly, who was Oregon’s head coach from 2009 to 2012.

Oregon (4-3, 2-2) has scored 42 points in three games since Moore’s injury while rotating Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas, and Jay Johnson takes over play-calling this week. Ducks coach Dan Lanning didn’t hide from the problem after the Illinois loss. “I think all things are on the table for us to make sure that we’re the best version of ourselves, and we’re currently not that. That’s very clear,” Lanning said.

Wildcats coach David Braun still sees a dangerous opponent. “Oregon’s got an elite defense. Not only are they talented, they’re well coached, playing at a really high level,” Braun said.

Northwestern ranks eighth nationally in college football in adjusted offensive EPA per play, while Oregon ranks 104th. The Ducks’ defense should keep the score low. Still, Northwestern has the more reliable offense and quarterback, and that’s enough to win a tight game in Eugene.

Picks: Northwestern 24-20, Northwestern +3.5, Under 47.5

Kansas (+6.5) at TCU: Upset Watch 7

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Kansas (3-4) earned its first Big 12 win last week, beating Baylor 25-24 after Blake Herold blocked a 45-yard field goal in the final minute. Isaiah Marshall accounted for three touchdowns, including the go-ahead 15-yard run, and Dylan Edwards ran for more than 150 yards on 30 carries.

TCU (3-4) lost 24-20 to West Virginia when Jaden Craig fumbled on a sack at the WVU 14-yard line with 34 seconds left. All four of the Horned Frogs’ losses have come by eight points or fewer. “The biggest thing for us right now is just an inability to be able to finish on offense,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said.

Dykes also said the Jayhawks present challenges with their offensive scheme and their front seven. Kansas coach Lance Leipold hopes the Baylor win starts something. “The difference between winning and losing is a fine line,” Leipold said.

TCU allows a Big 12-low 13.9 points per game, so Kansas won’t score much. But a TCU offense that keeps stalling late should make this a field goal game either way.

Picks: TCU 23-20, Kansas +6.5, Under 45.5

South Carolina (+3.5) at Oklahoma: Upset Watch 8

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

South Carolina (4-3, 2-3 SEC) has beaten ranked teams in back-to-back games, winning 38-19 at No. 16 Florida and 27-24 over No. 11 Tennessee. LaNorris Sellers threw for 210 yards and ran for 96 against the Vols, including the tying touchdown with 1:17 left.

Oklahoma (4-3) won 23-15 at Mississippi State last week, but its offense didn’t top 14 points in any of its three games after the opener. Sooners coach Brent Venables knows what’s coming. “They’re tops in the SEC in rushing offense, over 220 yards a game, and they’ve been lights out on third and fourth down,” Venables said.

Oklahoma sacked Sellers six times in a 26-7 win in Columbia last season, and Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer said this week the Sooners’ defense “embarrassed” his offense in that game.

That defense should keep Oklahoma in front at home. But Sellers is playing his best football of the season, and an Oklahoma offense this limited makes South Carolina a live underdog late.

Picks: Oklahoma 24-20, Oklahoma -3.5, Under 44.5

Clemson (+6) at Florida State: Upset Watch 6.5

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 7 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Clemson (4-3, 2-2 ACC) lost 20-16 at home to Virginia Tech last week. The Tigers average 21.4 points per game, 16th among 17 ACC teams, and they have a league-low 17 plays of 20 or more yards. “It hasn’t been showing up good right now, not much at all,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said of the big plays.

Florida State (3-4, 1-3) comes off a bye after leading in all four of its losses, and it lost running back Ousmane Kromah for the season against Miami. Swinney isn’t reading much into the record. “They’re 3-4, but they’re probably four plays from being 7-0,” Swinney said.

The Seminoles’ defense has been the weak spot, ranking 103rd in points allowed at 27.9 per game. Clemson’s defense ranks seventh nationally in college football in adjusted EPA per play, while Florida State’s ranks 106th.

That defensive edge keeps Clemson within one score. Still, the Tigers’ offense hasn’t finished enough drives to win a road game in Tallahassee.

Picks: Florida State 24-20, Clemson +6, Under 50.5

MORE:Week 9 CFB DFS picks: Devon Dampier, Jamal Roberts lead DraftKings, FanDuel slates

More upset watches

• California (+7) at NC State: Upset Watch 3.5. NC State fired Dave Doeren, who entered the season as the fourth-longest-tenured coach in college football, a day after a 31-28 loss at Stanford, and Todd Goebbel makes his debut as interim coach. Cal (3-5) lost to Wake Forest and SMU by a combined 100-27 over the last two weeks. Prediction: NC State 27-23.
• Auburn (+11.5) at Ole Miss: Upset Watch 5.5. No. 12 Ole Miss lost 34-27 at Texas and allowed 157 rushing yards to Raleek Brown. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown leads the Tigers with 480 rushing yards, and Auburn won at No. 1 Georgia earlier this month. Prediction: Ole Miss 31-24.
• Temple (+4.5) at East Carolina: Upset Watch 3. Temple (2-5) comes off a bye after a 38-31 loss to Charlotte, and three injured players could return this week. East Carolina (3-4) lost 41-34 in overtime at Memphis and beat Temple 45-14 last season. Prediction: East Carolina 27-24.
• Utah at Cincinnati (+7): Upset Watch 2.5. Cincinnati beat No. 8 Texas Tech behind four touchdown passes from JC French IV and 173 rushing yards from Cole Tabb. No. 6 Utah has won 13 straight, the longest active winning streak in college football, though Devon Dampier has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two games. Prediction: Utah 34-23.
• Georgia Tech (+7.5) at Pittsburgh: Upset Watch 3.5. Pitt started 5-0 but has lost three straight, including a 52-23 loss at No. 1 Miami. Georgia Tech (2-5) allowed 399 rushing yards to Boston College last week. Prediction: Pittsburgh 30-27.
• Army (+6.5) at Memphis: Upset Watch 6. Army (5-2) has won three straight, including a 38-35 win at Tulsa. Memphis (6-2) needed overtime to beat East Carolina last week and lost 31-17 at Tulane, a team Army beat 20-17. Prediction: Memphis 34-31.

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