Ten for Ten: Big Ten Men’s Basketball season predictions

Ten for Ten is Inside NU’s new weekly Big Ten basketball column. Every week, Adam and Donovan will sound off on 10 of the biggest questions buzzing around the conference and keep tabs on its best players, coaches and teams.

THREE. MORE. SLEEPS. And the wait will be over. The ribbon will be cut.

After a long offseason of transfer portal turmoil and captivating eligibility campaigns, the 2026-27 college basketball season is finally on the horizon. But a lot has changed since the Michigan Wolverines cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

The conference welcomed over 125 newcomers over the past few months, while returning just two of last year’s 10 All-Big Ten players.

Dusty May? He’s now the head coach of the Dallas Mavericks.

Dana Altman? He’s retired.

But no matter how the winds of change roar, Big Ten basketball marches on. After a summer of sun, Donovan and Adam have ridden back from their coastal summer homes and shorn up on Lake Michigan with their predictions for the biggest storylines of the season locked and loaded.

This is Ten for Ten, preseason edition.

1. Who will win the Big Ten?

Adam: Illinois

I love the program that Brad Underwood has built in Champaign, and that’s not me outing myself as some Illinois double-agent that has been writing… I don’tlikeIllinois at all — I mean, I am a Northwestern fan. BUT, the basketball purist in me can’t help but get giddy to watch Illinois play basketball this year.

Last year, almost every rotational player on Brad Underwood’s squad was tall, AND everybody could make plays on offense. The Illini finished with five of EvanMiya.com’s top-30 rated Big Ten players (Keaton Wagler, David Mirkovic, Kylan Boswell, Zvonimir Ivisic and Tomislav Ivisic), three of which stood over 6-foot-6. This year, despite seeing first-year standout Wagler go fifth overall to the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA Draft, EvanMiya.com projects that Illinois will have six of the Big Ten’s top 30 offensive players — David Mirkovic (No. 3), Tomislav Ivisic (No. 4), Andrej Stojakovic (No. 12), Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks (No. 16), Zvonimir Ivisic (No. 20) and five-star freshman Quentin Coleman (No. 28).

The other difference from last year? All those guys are over 6-foot-4. Five of them (excluding Coleman) are taller than 6-foot-7. Illinois is a juggernaut, and they are my preseason pick to win the Big Ten, and quite possibly a national title.

Donovan: Illinois

There’s no more debating Brad Underwood’s inevitability. Last year, he added a Final Four banner to his already crowded trophy room, alongside two Big Ten Tournament titles and one regular season championship. This season, he might just have his best Fighting Illini group to try to win the big one and truly cement himself as one of college basketball’s best coaches.

Whenever David Mirkovic returns from injury, he should be one of the best players in the sport. Andrej Stojakovic was an all-around leader and ball-handler last year, but flashed the potential to be even more. The Croatian front-court duo of Zvonimir and Tomislav Ivisic will shore up the back line, and oh, I forgot to mention, Illinois also added one of the country’s best transfers in Stefan Vaaks.

There are no two ways around it: Illinois is going to be a wagon this year.

2. Who will win Big Ten Player of the Year?

Adam: Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State)

In the second half of last year’s season, Jeremy Fears Jr. was already playing as one of the nation’s best. In the 2026 portion of his junior campaign, the Joliet, Illinois native averaged 18.3 points per game and had seven games with double-digit assists, including two games where he had over 15. With Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper now gone, I think Fears Jr. is going to have an ever bigger green light to take over Michigan State’s offense as a scorer.

While I fully expect him to bump his 9.4 assists per game mark from last year up over 10 in 2026-27. There is no player in Big Ten — and perhaps in all of college basketball — that can have a dual-impact as a scorer in facilitator on the offensive end in the same way Fears Jr. can. That’s why he’s my pick for Big Ten POTY.

Donovan: David Mirkovic(Illinois)

There are several reasons one can argue that Mirkovic won’t win Big Ten Player of the Year. First, we don’t know how quickly he’ll recover after undergoing foot surgery in August. Second, Illinois’ roster is so stacked that Mirkovic won’t be asked to take over games and average north of 20 points. Third, last season he was an elite role player on a team headlined by Keaton Wagler. When I project a season of Mirkovic dominance, I am extrapolating from a lot of unknowns.

Yet, the goods looked really good last year. Mirkovic is a lengthy three-level scorer who can guard almost every position on the court. He shot 37.5% from beyond the arc in his first year in the Big Ten and often times seemed to defer to Wagler or his more experienced teammates. This season, Mirkovic will have the keys to the system, with free rein to do what he wants on offense. Mirkovic will be the best player in the Big Ten and help Illinois win the conference.

3. Who’s the Big Ten newcomer you are most excited about?

Adam: Markus Burton (Indiana)

Markus Burton is just a hooper, dude. I’ve been sold on the Notre Dame transfer ever since he torched my childhood team — the California Golden Bears — for 43 points on 13-for-26 shooting in the Fighting Irish’s 112-110 4OT victory over Cal in the first round of the ACC Tournament in 2025. During his three years in South Bend, Burton averaged 19.1 points, 3.8 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game, while improving his efficiency every year and shooting 48.9% from the field in his injury-shortened 2025-26 campaign. Though a bit undersized at an even six feet tall, a problem in such a physical conference, Burton will find a way to get his. He is a scorer, through and through, and I can’t wait to watch him cook Big Ten defenses.

Donovan: Jasiah Jervis(Michigan State)

If Michigan State competes for a National Championship, it will be because of Jasiah Jervis. No one else on the roster has anything close to Jervis’s twitchy scoring ability. His three-point stroke is pure, his handle is tight and his fluidity in the lane is that of a seasoned veteran.

Jervis excelled this past summer for Team USA, playing against the country’s best recruits, and will now look to break out in his first season for the Spartans. Like Jase Richardson. Jervis was inserted into MSU’s starting lineup in its third exhibition game, and on the court he’s shown space-creating, isolation playmaking that allows the rest of the roster to flourish.

4. Who is your breakout player?

Adam: Trey McKenney(Michigan)

McKenney took on an expanded role for Michigan in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 13.5 points and 3.0 rebounds per game on 25.8 minutes for the Wolverines in their final games against Alabama, Tennessee, Arizona (who he dropped 16 against) and UConn. Because of this, people forget that for most last year, the former four-star was a role player. McKenney averaged 9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 0.9 assists on the season, but didn’t start a single game. This year, defending Michigan’s national championship alongside Elliot Cadeau, I expect we’ll see McKenney maintain his 46.2/39.1/89.5 shooting splits in an expanded role and take off as one of the Big Ten’s best two-way guards.

Donovan: Braden Frager(Nebraska)

Braden Frager encapsulated what Nebraska was last season: a passionate Cornhusker who always wore his heart on his sleeve. As a versatile scorer, Frager averaged 14.7 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and helped spark a historic run for Nebraska. The 6-foot-7 sniper averaged less than 24 minutes per game last season and will see an increased role in playing time and offensive involvement. Frager will become a focal point for Fred Hoiberg’s squad and his versatility on both ends of the court will shine.

5. Who is your dark horse team?

Adam: Maryland

It was a textbook offseason from Buzz Williams in College Park. First, he passed assignment one and retained his key pieces. The Terrapins saw David Coit (13.5 PPG last season) graduate and Darius Adams (10.8 PPG last season) transfer to NC State, but were able to retain two of their three top scorers in Pharrel Payne (17.5 PPG in 10 games last season) and Andre Mills (12.2 PPG last season). Then, he got busy in the portal, bringing in three four-stars in Bishop Boswell (6.2 PPG for Tennessee last season), DJ Wagner (7.4 PPG for Arkansas last season) and Tomislav Buljan (13.1 points per game for New Mexico last season). The cherry on top? Baba Oladotun, a top-10 national recruit who may prove to be the best freshman in the Big Ten.

With Payne back and healthy for a season, and a strong supporting cast of Terrapins surrounding him, it wouldn’t surprise me if Maryland put together a second weekend NCAA Tournament run this season.

Also, Donovan’s taking USC who I’m also really high on, but I didn’t pick here because I don’t think they are necessary a dark horse, but carry on…

Donovan: USC

USC is going to be really darn good. Many have pegged them into the upper third of the conference, but I’m willing to go further and predict they’ll compete with Michigan State and Illinois for the league title.

Rodney Rice was sidelined for most of last year with a season-ending shoulder injury in December, but he’s a straight-up scorer. Alijah Arenas returned from a life-threatening car crash in January, proving his fluidity and feel on offense in his short time on the court, but should pop with a full year under his belt. The Trojans brought in the best high school recruiting class in the Big Ten, led by five-star forward Christian Collins, and landed several impact transfers like KJ Lewis. USC is talented and deep, a dangerous combination for head coach Eric Musselman.

The Muss Bus will soon be leaving the station, and I’ve already bought a front-row ticket.

6. Who will be the most disappointing team?

Adam: Wisconsin

A lot of people are still picking Wisconsin to finish high in the Big Ten this year. And I get it — it’s the Badgers and Greg Gard, a powerhouse program with a stellar head coach. But the Badgers just don’t have enough guys this year to be competitive like they have been.

Wisconsin lost five of its top seven scorers in the offseason — including its two standout performers Nick Boyd (20.7 points per game last season) and John Blackwell (19.1 points per game last season). While it still has 7-foot Nolan Winter, who very well might tally a double-double in every game he plays this season — it has completely lost its voltage in the backcourt, and didn’t find a solution over three-stars in the transfer portal. It’s hard to pick against the Badgers, but Gard will have his work cut out for him this season making this team competitive.

Donovan: Purdue

When I told Adam my pick for this prompt was Purdue, he looked at me and said, “you’re going to bet against Matt Painter?”

Well, the short answer is: I’m going to bet against Matt Painter’s current roster construction.

Painter is one of the best coaches in the sport, but looking at the 2026-27 Boilermaker roster, it’s hard to be excited about anything. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are gone, taking Purdue’s identity with them. Painter is putting a lot of stock in unproven players like C.J. Cox to take massive strides and become primary offensive options.

Simply put, Purdue doesn’t have a go-to guy. The Boilermakers won’t fall flat on their face because of who’s at the wheel, but without an alpha like Smith, Zach Edey or even Trevion Williams, I think they’ll have their worst season in a while.

7. How many Big Ten teams will make the NCAA Tournament?

Adam: 12

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA and USC. No Northwestern, unfortunately.

Donovan: 11

With the expanded tournament, Big Ten teams might not even need a winning conference record this season to receive a postseason bid. It’s going to be easier than ever to make March Madness, and the conference’s depth is going to be the beneficiary. Teams picked 10th and 11th in the Big Ten Preseason Media Poll will qualify for the tournament with relative ease, as tournament expansion was all about getting more big names into the tournament to increase revenue.

8. Which coach has the hottest seat?

Adam: Tony Stubblefield

I’m taking the easy pick here. Stubblefield has the job of replacing Oregon’s best head coach of all time — Dana Altman, who took the Ducks to their second-ever Final Four in 2017, and retired abruptly three weeks ago, just under a month away from the start of the season. With Altman gone, Stubblefield was chosen to be the program’s interim head coach, but it’s expected around the conference that the Ducks will try to hire a bigger name to its permanent program leader.

Considering that Stubblefield struggled during his previous stints as a head coach — going 2-12 as interim HC at New Mexico State and 28-54 over three seasons as HC at DePaul — and has been tasked with directing one of the Big Ten’s worst roster this season, it could be a tough season for the Ducks and a short stint for Mr. T.

Donovan: Jake Diebler

Jake Diebler was a great college basketball story. He was given the interim head coaching position at Ohio State on Feb. 14, 2024, and knocked off No. 2 Purdue four days later. He went 5-1 to close the regular season, capping it off with a Big Ten Tournament win. Diebler’s Buckeyes missed out on the NCAA Tournament, but he had inspired a glorious run that landed him the return offer for the permanent coaching position.

Since then, there’s been ups and there have been downs. Ohio State went 17-15 in Diebler’s first year as full-time head coach, and 21-12 in his second. He led the Buckeyes to March Madness and a winning Big Ten record, but there’s always been this feeling as if he’s walking on eggshells. Diebler was hired as an interim coach and isn’t a hot name that gets the fanbase excited. If Ohio State misses an expanded NCAA Tournament, there’s going to be a lot of chatter about whether a new conductor is needed in Columbus.

9. Which non-conference game are you most excited about?

Adam:No. 22 UCLAvs. No. 5 Arizona (Nov. 2)

I have major respect for programs that start of their season with a marquee matchup, rather than getting in a warmup against a never-before-heard-of mid-major opponent. And that’s exactly how Mick Cronin and the UCLA Bruins will be starting their season, when they take on Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona Wildcats in Las Vegas on Monday night.

On the first full day of college basketball this season we get to see? Sign me up.

Donovan: No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke (Nov. 10)

No. 6 versus No. 2.

Tom Izzo versus Jon Scheyer.

The Spartans versus the Blue Devils in the Champions Classic.

Nov. 10 at the United Center will be must-see college basketball action featuring four of the best teams in the sport (Adam and I will be attending for that reason). Michigan State enters the season with the Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year, while Duke brought in an elite high school recruiting class headlined by Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and a transfer class including John Blackwell. Kentucky and Kansas will cap off the night in Chicago, but the 6:00 p.m. CDT tip pitting two giants of the sport against each other is the game to watch.

Duke is more experienced than usual and has already asserted its dominance in wins over Tennessee and Kansas in the preseason, so the top-10 matchup will be a true test for Izzo and company to see if the Spartans are good enough to contend.

10. Anything that stood out to you from preseason?

Adam:Northwestern’s not looking great

I’ll just say what everybody is thinking: it looks like there might be a long season ahead of us ‘Cats fans, following Northwestern’s two preseason losses — a surprising road loss to Illinois State and a 35-point thumping from Iowa State at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Northwestern is going to really miss Nick Martinelli and it just wasn’t able to ink enough transfer portal talent in the offseason for this year’s roster to be competitive. It’s that simple. While I do have some optimism that the ‘Cats will get better as the season goes on, considering the team is constructed of a lot of new faces that are still trying to figure out how to play with each other, this team has a low ceiling considering its talent and I could see the losses stacking up in a big way come Big Ten play.

Donovan: Michigan State’s lack of offensive creation

A constant over the past couple of years has been Michigan State’s lack of offensive versatility. The Spartans seem to always boast a top defense in the sport, but spacing and creation on offense have long been limiting factors. When Jeremy Fears Jr. returned to East Lansing, however, many thought the best point guard in the sport would solve these problems. The floor general is an all-around game manager with uncanny vision and an infuriating knack for getting to the free-throw line. This year, he’s complemented by one of the sport’s best athletes, Coen Carr, and a sophomore wing poised to break out, Jordan Scott.

Still, after two exhibition losses to UConn and Marquette, MSU seems set for another offensive struggle. Fears Jr. wasn’t productive in the two Big East games, and Michigan State couldn’t find playmaking elsewhere. I noted Jasiah Jervis as essential for this team because of the lack of isolation scorers. It looks like another season of a defense-first Spartan team that efficient offenses can beat.

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but Izzo has a lot to work on.