The Week 10 college football best bets card backs six road teams, including No. 1 Miami, which visits No. 11 Notre Dame without star receiver Malachi Toney after he injured his ankle in practice Wednesday.
No. 12 Ohio State lays 7.5 points against Oregon one week after a 30-18 loss at USC. Oklahoma gets 6.5 at Florida in its first game since firing offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, and five of the seven totals lean under.
Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.
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Nebraska (-4.5) vs. Illinois (O49.5)
- Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Nebraska (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) has lost three straight games by a combined 13 points, falling 20-17 to Indiana, 17-14 to Oregon and 17-10 to Washington. The Cornhuskers led Washington 7-3 late in the fourth quarter before allowing two touchdowns in the final two minutes. Coach Matt Rhule also replaced kicker Kyle Cunanan, who has made 4 of 9 field goals, with John Hohl.
Illinois (5-3, 3-2) has won three straight, including a 20-17 win over Maryland on a field goal as time expired. Katin Houser returned from surgery on his throwing hand for that game. Still, the Illini haven’t scored more than 21 points in a Big Ten game outside of their win over Michigan State.
The Illinois defense gives Nebraska its best chance to end the skid. It ranks 126th nationally in adjusted expected points added per play and allows 7.63 yards per dropback, so quarterback Anthony Colandrea should find open receivers if he avoids the turnovers that cost Nebraska against Washington.
Nebraska allows 270.8 yards per game, and safety Jamir Conn, who has missed two games, is questionable. Defensive coordinator Rob Aurich said of Conn, “He was at practice this week.” Illinois averages 6.11 yards per play, and that’s enough offense to help push this total over 49.5.
Picks: Nebraska 31-20, Nebraska -4.5, O49.5
Texas (-2.5) vs. Missouri (U42.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, noon ET, ESPN
No. 7 Texas (6-2) has won two straight since back-to-back October losses to Oklahoma and Florida, most recently beating Mississippi State 31-3. Arch Manning has been sacked 24 times this season, including five times against the Bulldogs. “The five sacks sucks, that’s not something we’re proud of,” coach Steve Sarkisian said.
No. 18 Missouri (6-2) forced four turnovers in a 34-10 win at Arkansas, one week after losing 31-3 at Ole Miss. Coach Eli Drinkwitz opened his Tuesday press conference by saying, “I’m not a candidate at Florida State.” After Texas, the Tigers still have Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma left.
Texas’ defense is the best unit on the field. The Longhorns allow 273.1 yards per game and 4.52 yards per dropback, and they recorded seven sacks against Mississippi State. Missouri’s running game has been inconsistent, so more of the offense will fall on its quarterback against that pass rush.
The Texas offense hasn’t been efficient enough to pull away from good teams, though. A controlled road win fits a game that stays under 42.5.
Picks: Texas 24-16, Texas -2.5, U42.5
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UCLA (-5.5) vs. Minnesota (U39.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, noon ET, Fox
No. 8 UCLA (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) reached 8-0 for the first time since 2005 with a 27-0 shutout of Nevada. The Bruins have leaned on their defense since quarterback Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Oct. 10 win at Oregon. That defense has 16 interceptions and allows 4.25 yards per play.
Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) took Indiana to overtime last week before losing 23-16. Coach P.J. Fleck said his team “has a really unique ability to peel the logo and ranking off of them.”
Minnesota’s offense is the reason to lay the points. The Golden Gophers haven’t scored more than 20 points in any of their last four games, and they average 4.75 yards per play. UCLA averages 6.30 yards per carry against a Minnesota defense that allows 4.84, so the Bruins can build a lead on the ground while Ty Dieffenbach avoids turnovers. Minnesota’s scoring trouble also keeps this game under 39.5.
Picks: UCLA 27-10, UCLA -5.5, U39.5
Duke (-4) vs. NC State (U51.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 12:30 p.m. ET, The CW
Duke (6-2) clinched bowl eligibility with a 47-2 win over Boston College, and Nate Sheppard ran for a program-record five touchdowns. Coach Manny Diaz is 4-0 against NC State, and the Blue Devils allow 14.2 points per game, ninth in FBS.
NC State (4-4) fired Dave Doeren on Oct. 24 after 14 seasons, then beat California 31-10 in interim coach Todd Goebbel’s first game. Running back Duke Scott is expected back after missing three games. Goebbel pointed to Duke’s ball security, saying “when you’re plus four in the turnover margin, it says a lot about your program.”
Duke’s defense is the decisive difference. NC State allows 6.31 yards per play, which gives an ordinary Duke offense room to throw, while Duke allows 4.94. Sheppard and the Blue Devils’ running game can also control the clock in Raleigh, and that keeps this total slightly under 51.5.
Picks: Duke 30-20, Duke -4, U51.5
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Oregon vs. Ohio State (-7.5, U46.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
No. 12 Ohio State (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) lost 30-18 at USC in Luke Fahey’s first career start. The true freshman completed 21 of 38 passes for 260 yards and a touchdown, but the Buckeyes reached USC territory eight times and didn’t score a touchdown until 2:12 remained. “The penalties are ridiculous. The mistakes are ridiculous,” coach Ryan Day said Tuesday, and he confirmed Fahey will remain the starter.
No. 23 Oregon (5-3, 3-2) rallied from a 20-6 deficit to beat No. 20 Northwestern 34-26, and Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. The Ducks still lost a fumble in that game, and coach Dan Lanning said, “You don’t get an opportunity to make mistakes like that against great teams like Ohio State.”
Oregon averaged 3.8 yards per carry against Northwestern, and Ohio State’s defense allows 4.55 yards per play. That puts the game on Raiola’s arm in a hostile stadium. The Buckeyes’ offense still averages 6.86 yards per play, so Ohio State should finish enough drives to win by more than a touchdown in a game that stays under 46.5.
Picks: Ohio State 27-16, Ohio State -7.5, U46.5
Miami (+7) vs. Notre Dame (O55.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
No. 1 Miami (8-0) will play without Malachi Toney, who will have surgery for a high ankle sprain after getting hurt in practice Wednesday. The Hurricanes still lead the nation at 47.6 points per game, and Darian Mensah has Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw to target. Miami averages 9.05 yards per dropback.
No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1) beat Navy 35-13 and allows a nation-low 236.1 yards per game. Cornerback Leonard Moore missed the Navy game but is expected to play against Miami. The Irish will be without linebacker Drayk Bowen, their leading tackler.
ESPN’s Football Power Index separates these teams by 0.7 points before home-field advantage, so a full touchdown is a lot to lay, even with Toney out. Miami’s pass defense is the concern after North Carolina threw for 341 yards against it, and Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr should find room. Both offenses moving the ball through the air pushes this game over 55.5, and Mensah keeps the Hurricanes within a touchdown.
Picks: Notre Dame 31-28, Miami +7, O55.5
Oklahoma (+6.5) vs. Florida (U44.5)
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3 SEC) fired Arbuckle after a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina in which the Sooners had 118 total yards and no offensive touchdowns through three quarters. Tight ends coach Jason Witten takes over play-calling. Coach Brent Venables wouldn’t commit to John Mateer as his starter, but he wants the offense to “put incredible pressure on the defense and take care of the football.”
No. 24 Florida (5-3, 3-3) turned the ball over four times in a 27-8 loss to Georgia. Coach Jon Sumrall benched Aaron Philo for Tramell Jones Jr. during that game and hasn’t named a starter for Saturday. He blamed the protection as much as the quarterbacks: “I don’t know if Tom Brady was our quarterback on Saturday if it would have helped us.”
Oklahoma’s defense is the reason to take the points. The Sooners rank third nationally in adjusted expected points added per play on defense, and they should make an unsettled Florida offense work for every scoring drive. Florida beat Texas 27-24 in October, so the Gators can win this game at home. However, Oklahoma’s offense ranks 108th nationally at 22.0 points per game, which keeps the total under 44.5 and the margin inside one score.
Picks: Florida 23-20, Oklahoma +6.5, U44.5
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Source: Yahoo Sports
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